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Volume 22 Issue 6

Nov.  2005

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2005 >  22(6): 798-806

A Coupled Model Study on the Intensification of the Asian Summer Monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

  • 1.

    Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 53, D-20146, Hamburg, Germany


doi: 10.1007/BF02918680

  • The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered.Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakicenovic et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.
  • [1] ZHANG Lixia* and ZHOU Tianjun, , 2014: An Assessment of Improvements in Global Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in FGOALS-s2, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 165-178.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2164-6
    [2] ZOU Liwei, ZHOU Tianjun, 2015: Asian Summer Monsoon Onset in Simulations and CMIP5 Projections Using Four Chinese Climate Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 794-806.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4053-z
    [3] Song YANG, WEN Min, Rongqian YANG, Wayne HIGGINS, ZHANG Renhe, 2011: Impacts of Land Process on the Onset and Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1301-1317.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0167-8
    [4] BUHE Cholaw, Ulrich CUBASCH, LIN Yonghui, JI Liren, 2003: The Change of North China Climate in Transient Simulations Using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 755-766.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915400
    [5] REN Guoyu, DING Yihui, ZHAO Zongci, ZHENG Jingyun, WU Tongwen, TANG Guoli, XU Ying, 2012: Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 958-977.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1200-2
    [6] Jeong-Hyeong LEE, Byungsoo KIM, Keon-Tae SOHN, Won-Tae KOWN, Seung-Ki MIN, 2005: Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 159-171.  doi: 10.1007/BF02918506
    [7] JIANG Dabang, 2008: Projected Potential Vegetation Change in China under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 126-138.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0126-1
    [8] FU Yuanhai, LU Riyu, 2010: Simulated Change in the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 992-1002.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9124-1
    [9] Li Chongyin, Mu Mingquan, 2001: The Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on Atmospheric Circulation and Climate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 831-843.
    [10] HAN Zuoqiang, YAN Zhongwei*, LI Zhen, LIU Weidong, and WANG Yingchun, 2014: Impact of Urbanization on Low-Temperature Precipitation in Beijing during 19602008, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 48-56.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2211-3
    [11] ZHU Yali, 2012: Variations of the Summer Somali and Australia Cross-Equatorial Flows and the Implications for the Asian Summer Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 509-518.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-1120-6
    [12] Bueh Cholaw, Ji Liren, Sun Shuqing, Cui Maochang, 2001: EAWM-Related Air-Sea-Land Interaction and the Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 659-673.
    [13] YAN Renchang, BIAN Jianchun, 2015: Tracing the Boundary Layer Sources of Carbon Monoxide in the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone Using WRF-Chem, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 943-951.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4130-3
    [14] LIU Xiangwen, WU Tongwen, YANG Song, JIE Weihua, NIE Suping, LI Qiaoping, CHENG Yanjie, LIANG Xiaoyun, 2015: Performance of the Seasonal Forecasting of the Asian Summer Monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1156-1172.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4194-8
    [15] BIAN Jianchun, YAN Renchang, CHEN Hongbin, Lu Daren, Steven T. MASSIE, 2011: Formation of the Summertime Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau: The Asian Summer Monsoon and Air Column Variations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1318-1325.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0174-9
    [16] Lu Peisheng, 1995: Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon and the Slowly Varying Disturbances, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 311-318.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656979
    [17] Yiran GUO, Jie CAO, Hui LI, Jian WANG, Yuchao DING, 2016: Simulation of the Interface between the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon: Intercomparison between MPI-ESM and ECHAM5/MPI-OM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 294-308.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5073-z
    [18] LU Riyu, Buwen DONG, 2008: Response of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Weakening of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 723-736.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0723-z
    [19] CHEN Bin, XU Xiang-De, YANG Shuai, ZHANG Wei, 2012: On the Temporal and Spatial Structure of Troposphere-to- Stratosphere Transport in the Lowermost Stratosphere over the Asian Monsoon Region during Boreal Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 1305-1317.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1171-3
    [20] WU Bingyi, WANG Dongxiao, HUANG Ronghui, 2003: Relationship between Sea Level Pressures of the Winter Tropical Western Pacific and the Subsequent Asian Summer Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 496-510.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915494
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 November 2005
    Manuscript revised: 10 November 2005
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    A Coupled Model Study on the Intensification of the Asian Summer Monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

    • 1. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 53, D-20146, Hamburg, Germany
    • Manuscript received: 2005-11-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2005-11-10

    Abstract: The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered.Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakicenovic et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.

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