Modelling of Indian Monsoon Rainfall Series by Univariate Box-Jenkins Type of Models

S.D.Dahale; S.V.Singh

doi:10.1007/BF02919143

Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 10 Issue 2

Mar. 1993

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 1993 > 10(2): 211-220

Modelling of Indian Monsoon Rainfall Series by Univariate Box-Jenkins Type of Models

1.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India

doi: 10.1007/BF02919143

Abstract
References
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Abstract:
The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is ap-plied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validated on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.
References

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 March 1993

Manuscript revised: 10 March 1993

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Modelling of Indian Monsoon Rainfall Series by Univariate Box-Jenkins Type of Models

1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India

Manuscript received: 1993-03-10
Manuscript revised: 1993-03-10

Abstract: The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is ap-plied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validated on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.