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Volume 7 Issue 1

Jan.  1990

Article Contents

A Limited Area Model for Monsoon Prediction


doi: 10.1007/BF02919174

  • A six level regional primitive equation model has been formulated and tested for monsoon prediction. The model uses dynamic normal mode initialization scheme for obtaining initial balance. The physical processes included are: the large scale condensation, the Kuo type of cumulus convection, the surface friction, the sensible heat supply and evap-oration over the sea. The actual smooth orography is included. The model has been integrated for 48 hrs using input of 7 July and 8 August 1979 when the domain of integration was dominated by an intense monsoon depression. In order to investigate the model simulation of formative stage of the depression, the model was also integrated using input of 4 July 1979.Furthermore, the envelope orography has been constructed and included in the model for investigating its effects on the monsoon prediction. Results of the model forecast are presented and discussed.
  • [1] Wang Shiyu, Qian Yongfu, 2001: Modeling of the 1998 East Asian Summer Monsoon by a Limited Area Model with Incorporated Coordinate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 209-224.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0014-4
    [2] Wang Yuan, Tan Zhemin, 2002: Monotonic Digit Filter for Limited-Area Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 337-349.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0026-8
    [3] Wang Yuan, Wu Rongsheng, 2001: Theoretical Aspect of Suitable Spatial Boundary Condition Specified for Adjoint Model on Limited Area, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 1081-1089.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0024-2
    [4] Xue Jishan, Wang Kangling, Wang Zhiming, Huang Minqiang, Zhang Xuehong, Yuan Chongguang, 1988: TEST OF A TROPICAL LIMITED AREA NUMERICAL PREDIC-TION MODEL INCLUDING EFFECT OF REAL TOPOGRAPHY, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 5, 1-14.  doi: 10.1007/BF02657341
    [5] A. Bandyopadhyay, S.S. Singh, 1994: Evaluation of Forecast Performance of an Economical Explicit Time Integration Scheme in a Limited Area Model over Indian Region, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 101-110.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656999
    [6] Zhao Li, Zhao Sixiong, 1995: Numerical Experiments of Meiyu(Baiu) Rainfall by Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area Model with Terrain, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 57-66.  doi: 10.1007/BF02661287
    [7] Chineke Theo Chidiezie, Li Weiping, 1999: IAP General Circulation Models: A First Step Towards Developing a Local Area Model for Weather Prediction in Nigeria, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 119-132.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0008-1
    [8] Feng Guolin, Cao Hongxing, Gao Xinquan, Dong Wenjie, Chou Jifan, 2001: Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 701-709.
    [9] WU Zhiwei, LI Jianping, 2008: Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 387-394.  doi: 0.1007/s00376-008-0387-8
    [10] A. Bandyopadhyay, 1992: Split-Explicit Integration of Primitive Equation Barotropic Model for the Prediction of Movement of Monsoon Depression, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 9, 83-92.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656933
    [11] ZHU Congwen, Chung-Kyu PARK, Woo-Sung LEE, Won-Tae YUN, 2008: Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 867-884.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0867-x
    [12] Magnus LINDSKOG, Adam DYBBROE, Roger RANDRIAMAMPIANINA, 2021: Use of Microwave Radiances from Metop-C and Fengyun-3 C/D Satellites for a Northern European Limited-area Data Assimilation System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 1415-1428.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-0326-5
    [13] Chen Longxun, Li Weiliang, 1985: THE ATMOSPHERIC HEAT BUDGET IN SUMMER OVER ASIA MONSOON AREA, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2, 487-497.  doi: 10.1007/BF02678747
    [14] Haochen LI, Chen YU, Jiangjiang XIA, Yingchun WANG, Jiang ZHU, Pingwen ZHANG, 2019: A Model Output Machine Learning Method for Grid Temperature Forecasts in the Beijing Area, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 1156-1170.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9023-z
    [15] Liu Huaqiang, Qian Yongfu, Zheng Yiqun, 2002: Effects of Nested Area Size upon Regional Climate Model Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 111-120.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0038-4
    [16] Zhizhen XU, Jing CHEN, Mu MU, Guokun DAI, Yanan MA, 2022: A Nonlinear Representation of Model Uncertainty in a Convective-Scale Ensemble Prediction System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1432-1450.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1341-x
    [17] Qian ZOU, Quanjia ZHONG, Jiangyu MAO, Ruiqiang DING, Deyu LU, Jianping LI, Xuan LI, 2023: Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 501-513.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1376-z
    [18] Zhu Baozhen, Chen Jiabin, Zhang Daomin, Li Zechun, Ge Aifen, 1984: AN OPERATIONAL 5-LAYER PRIMITIVE EQUATION MODEL FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PREDICTION, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 1, 214-233.  doi: 10.1007/BF02678134
    [19] Wu Aiming, Ni Yunqi, 1999: A Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and ENSO Prediction Study, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 405-418.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0019-y
    [20] Daquan ZHANG, Lijuan CHEN, Gill M. MARTIN, Zongjian KE, 2023: Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 2013-2028.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2258-8

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 January 1990
Manuscript revised: 10 January 1990
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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A Limited Area Model for Monsoon Prediction

  • 1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411005, India. Received January 10, 1989,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411005, India. Received January 10, 1989,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411005, India. Received January 10, 1989

Abstract: A six level regional primitive equation model has been formulated and tested for monsoon prediction. The model uses dynamic normal mode initialization scheme for obtaining initial balance. The physical processes included are: the large scale condensation, the Kuo type of cumulus convection, the surface friction, the sensible heat supply and evap-oration over the sea. The actual smooth orography is included. The model has been integrated for 48 hrs using input of 7 July and 8 August 1979 when the domain of integration was dominated by an intense monsoon depression. In order to investigate the model simulation of formative stage of the depression, the model was also integrated using input of 4 July 1979.Furthermore, the envelope orography has been constructed and included in the model for investigating its effects on the monsoon prediction. Results of the model forecast are presented and discussed.

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