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Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on Winter Rainfall over South China


doi: 10.1007/s00376--009-9102-7

  • The present study investigates the influence of South China Sea (SCS) SST and ENSO on winter (January--February--March; JFM) rainfall over South China and its dynamic processes by using station observations for the period 1951--2003, Met Office Hadley Center SST data for the period 1900--2008, and ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1958--2002. It is found that JFM rainfall over South China has a significant correlation with Nino-3 and SCS SST. Analyses show that in El Nino or positive SCS SST anomaly years, southwesterly anomalies at 700 hPa dominate over the South China Sea, which in turn transports more moisture into South China and favors increased rainfall. A partial regression analysis indicates that the independent ENSO influence on winter rainfall occurs mainly over South China, whereas SCS SST has a larger independent influence on winter rainfall in northern part of South China. The temperature over South China shows an obvious decrease at 300 hPa and an increase near the surface, with the former induced by Nino-3 and the latter SCS SST anomalies. This enhances the convective instability and weakens the potential vorticity (PV), which explains the strengthening of ascending motion and the increase of JFM rainfall over South China.
  • [1] Ben TIAN, Hong-Li REN, 2022: Diagnosing SST Error Growth during ENSO Developing Phase in the BCC_CSM1.1(m) Prediction System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 427-442.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1189-5
    [2] SU Qin, LU Riyu, LI Chaofan, 2014: Large-scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation in Monthly Rainfall over South China from May to August, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 273-282.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3051-x
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    [4] Peng HU, Wen CHEN, Shangfeng CHEN, Lin WANG, Yuyun LIU, 2022: The Weakening Relationship between ENSO and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in Recent Decades, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 443-455.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1208-6
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    [6] Lu LIU, Lingkun RAN, Shouting GAO, 2016: Evolution of Instability before and during a Torrential Rainstorm in North China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 110-120.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5080-0
    [7] Se-Hwan YANG, LI Chaofan, and LU Riyu, 2014: Predictability of Winter Rainfall in South China as Demonstrated by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 779-786.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3172-2
    [8] Xinyi XING, Xianghui FANG, Da PANG, Chaopeng JI, 2024: Seasonal Variation of the Sea Surface Temperature Growth Rate of ENSO, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 465-477.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3005-x
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 2010
Manuscript revised: 10 July 2010
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on Winter Rainfall over South China

  • 1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, CityU-IAP Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,CityU-IAP Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,CityU-IAP Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,CityU-IAP Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Abstract: The present study investigates the influence of South China Sea (SCS) SST and ENSO on winter (January--February--March; JFM) rainfall over South China and its dynamic processes by using station observations for the period 1951--2003, Met Office Hadley Center SST data for the period 1900--2008, and ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1958--2002. It is found that JFM rainfall over South China has a significant correlation with Nino-3 and SCS SST. Analyses show that in El Nino or positive SCS SST anomaly years, southwesterly anomalies at 700 hPa dominate over the South China Sea, which in turn transports more moisture into South China and favors increased rainfall. A partial regression analysis indicates that the independent ENSO influence on winter rainfall occurs mainly over South China, whereas SCS SST has a larger independent influence on winter rainfall in northern part of South China. The temperature over South China shows an obvious decrease at 300 hPa and an increase near the surface, with the former induced by Nino-3 and the latter SCS SST anomalies. This enhances the convective instability and weakens the potential vorticity (PV), which explains the strengthening of ascending motion and the increase of JFM rainfall over South China.

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