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Volume 18 Issue 2

Mar.  2001

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2001 >  18(2): 179-196

Summer Monsoon Rainfalls over Mid-Eastern China Lagged Correlated with Global SSTs

  • 1.

    LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,ITPA, MSRC, SUNY at Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000 USA,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029


doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0012-6

  • Some features associated with Eastern China Precipitation (ECP), in terms of mean climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability are studied based on monthly rainfall data. The rainfall behavior over Eastern China has fine spatial structure in the seasonal variation and interannual variability. The revealed characteristics of ECP motivate us dividing Eastern China into four sub-regions to quantify significant lag-correlations of the rainfalls with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and to study the ocean's predominant role in forcing the eastern China summer monsoon rainfalls. Lagged correlations between the mid-eastern China summer monsoon rainfalls (MECSMRs) and the global SSTs, with SST leading to rainfall, are investigated. The most important key SST regions and leading times, in which SSTs are highly correlated with the MECSMRs, are selected. Part of the results confirms previous studies that show links between the MECSMRs and SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the El Ni o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Other findings include the high lag correlations between the MECSMRs and the SSTs in the high and middle latitude Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, even the SSTs over the Atlantic Ocean, with SST leading-time up to 4 years. Based on the selected SST regions, regression equations are developed by using the SSTs in these regions in respective leading time. The correlation coefficient between the observed rainfalls and regressed rainfalls is over 0.85. The root mean square error (RMSE) for regressed rainfall is around 65% of the standard deviation and about 15% of the mean rainfall. The regression equation has also been evaluated in a forecasting mode by using independent data. Discussion on the consistence of the SST-rainfall correlation with circulation field is also presented.
  • [1] Yujie WU, Wansuo DUAN, 2018: Impact of SST Anomaly Events over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension on the "Summer Prediction Barrier", ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 397-409.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6322-0
    [2] ZHOU Lian-Tong, Chi-Yung TAM, ZHOU Wen, Johnny C. L. CHAN, 2010: Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on Winter Rainfall over South China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 832-844.  doi: 10.1007/s00376--009-9102-7
    [3] Chen Wen, Hans-F. Graf, Huang Ronghui, 2000: The Interannual Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Relation to the Summer Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 17, 48-60.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-000-0042-5
    [4] LI Shuanglin, CHEN Xiaoting, 2014: Quantifying the Response Strength of the Southern Stratospheric Polar Vortex to Indian Ocean Warming in Austral Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 492-503.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2322-x
    [5] Ben TIAN, Hong-Li REN, 2022: Diagnosing SST Error Growth during ENSO Developing Phase in the BCC_CSM1.1(m) Prediction System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 427-442.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1189-5
    [6] SU Qin, LU Riyu, LI Chaofan, 2014: Large-scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation in Monthly Rainfall over South China from May to August, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 273-282.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3051-x
    [7] LI Xiaofan, SHEN Xinyong, LIU Jia, 2014: Effects of Doubled Carbon Dioxide on Rainfall Responses to Large-Scale Forcing: A Two-Dimensional Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 525-531.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3030-2
    [8] FU Jianjian, LI Shuanglin, LUO Dehai, 2009: Impact of Global SST on Decadal Shift of East Asian Summer Climate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 192-201.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0192-z
    [9] Riyu LU, Saadia HINA, Xiaowei HONG, 2020: Upper- and Lower-tropospheric Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation of Pakistan Rainfall during Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1179-1190.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0137-0
    [10] Chen SHENG, Bian HE, Guoxiong WU, Yimin LIU, Shaoyu ZHANG, 2022: Interannual Influences of the Surface Potential Vorticity Forcing over the Tibetan Plateau on East Asian Summer Rainfall, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1050-1061.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1218-4
    [11] HAN Jinping, ZHANG Renhe, 2009: The Dipole Mode of the Summer Rainfall over East China during 1958--2001, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 727-735.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9014-6
    [12] Xinyu LI, Riyu LU, 2021: Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 1823-1834.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1051-9
    [13] Gong-Wang Si, Kuranoshin Kato, Takao Takeda, 1995: The Early Summer Seasonal Change of Large-scale Circulation over East Asia and Its Relation to Change of The Frontal Features and Frontal Rainfall Environment During 1991 Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 151-176.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656829
    [14] FU Jianjian, LI Shuanglin, 2013: The Influence of Regional SSTs on the Interdecadal Shift of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 330-340.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2062-3
    [15] LIU Yanju, DING Yihui, 2007: Sensitivity Study of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in 1998 to Different Cumulus arameterization Schemes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 360-376.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0360-y
    [16] Wang Qianqian, Qian Yongfu, 1996: Effects of Land-Sea Distribution, Topography and Diurnal Change on Summer Monsoon Modeling, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 13, 253-259.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656867
    [17] Swati Basu, K. J. Ramesh, Z. N. Begum, 1999: Medium Range Prediction of Summer Monsoon Activities over India vis-a-vis Their Correspondence with the Observational Features, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 133-146.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0009-0
    [18] Kui LIU, Lian-Tong ZHOU, Zhibiao WANG, Yong LIU, 2023: Interdecadal Enhancement in the Relationship between the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central-Western Pacific after the Early 1990s, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1766-1782.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2200-0
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    [20] Ronghui HUANG, Yong LIU, Zhencai DU, Jilong CHEN, Jingliang HUANGFU, 2017: Differences and Links between the East Asian and South Asian Summer Monsoon Systems: Characteristics and Variability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 1204-1218.  doi: 10.1007/ s00376-017-7008-3
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 March 2001
    Manuscript revised: 10 March 2001
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Summer Monsoon Rainfalls over Mid-Eastern China Lagged Correlated with Global SSTs

    • 1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,ITPA, MSRC, SUNY at Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000 USA,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
    • Manuscript received: 2001-03-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2001-03-10

    Abstract: Some features associated with Eastern China Precipitation (ECP), in terms of mean climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability are studied based on monthly rainfall data. The rainfall behavior over Eastern China has fine spatial structure in the seasonal variation and interannual variability. The revealed characteristics of ECP motivate us dividing Eastern China into four sub-regions to quantify significant lag-correlations of the rainfalls with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and to study the ocean's predominant role in forcing the eastern China summer monsoon rainfalls. Lagged correlations between the mid-eastern China summer monsoon rainfalls (MECSMRs) and the global SSTs, with SST leading to rainfall, are investigated. The most important key SST regions and leading times, in which SSTs are highly correlated with the MECSMRs, are selected. Part of the results confirms previous studies that show links between the MECSMRs and SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the El Ni o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Other findings include the high lag correlations between the MECSMRs and the SSTs in the high and middle latitude Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, even the SSTs over the Atlantic Ocean, with SST leading-time up to 4 years. Based on the selected SST regions, regression equations are developed by using the SSTs in these regions in respective leading time. The correlation coefficient between the observed rainfalls and regressed rainfalls is over 0.85. The root mean square error (RMSE) for regressed rainfall is around 65% of the standard deviation and about 15% of the mean rainfall. The regression equation has also been evaluated in a forecasting mode by using independent data. Discussion on the consistence of the SST-rainfall correlation with circulation field is also presented.

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