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Volume 18 Issue 2

Mar.  2001

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2001 >  18(2): 197-208

A Review on Seasonal Climate Prediction

  • 1.

    Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871,Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871


doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0013-5

  • The characters of experiments of prediction on monthly mean atmospheric circulation, seasonal prediction and seasonal forecast of summer rainfall over China are summarized in the present paper. The results demonstrate that climate prediction can be made only if the time average is taken. However, the improvement of the skill score of seasonal forecasts depends on the studies on physical parameters and mechanisms that are responsible for seasonal anomaly. Finally, the predictability of seasonal forecast of temperature and precipitation is discussed, including effectiveness and accuracy.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 March 2001
    Manuscript revised: 10 March 2001
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    A Review on Seasonal Climate Prediction

    • 1. Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871,Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871
    • Manuscript received: 2001-03-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2001-03-10

    Abstract: The characters of experiments of prediction on monthly mean atmospheric circulation, seasonal prediction and seasonal forecast of summer rainfall over China are summarized in the present paper. The results demonstrate that climate prediction can be made only if the time average is taken. However, the improvement of the skill score of seasonal forecasts depends on the studies on physical parameters and mechanisms that are responsible for seasonal anomaly. Finally, the predictability of seasonal forecast of temperature and precipitation is discussed, including effectiveness and accuracy.

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