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Volume 18 Issue 2

Mar.  2001

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2001 >  18(2): 283-293

An Approach to Extract Effective Information of Monthly Dynamical Prediction-The Use of Ensemble Method

  • 1.

    Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029


doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0020-6

  • The approach of getting useful information of monthly dynamical prediction from ensemble forecasts is studied. The extended range ensemble forecasts (8 members, the initial perturbations of the lagged average forecast (LAF)(0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 GMT in two consecutive days) of the 500 hPa height field with the global spectral model (T63L16) from January to May 1997 are provided by the National Climate Center of China. The relationship between the spread of ensemble measured by root-mean-square deviation of ensemble member from ensemble mean and forecast skill (the anomaly correlation or the root-mean-square distance between the ensemble mean forecast and the observation) is significant. The spread of ensemble can evaluate the useful forecast days N for the best estimate of 30 days mean. Thus, a weighted mean approach based on ensemble spread is put forward for monthly dynamical prediction. The anomaly correlation of the weighted monthly mean by the ensemble spread is higher than that of both the arithmetic mean and the linear weighted mean. Better results of the monthly mean circulation and anomaly are obtained from the ensemble spread weighted mean.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 March 2001
    Manuscript revised: 10 March 2001
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    An Approach to Extract Effective Information of Monthly Dynamical Prediction-The Use of Ensemble Method

    • 1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
    • Manuscript received: 2001-03-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2001-03-10

    Abstract: The approach of getting useful information of monthly dynamical prediction from ensemble forecasts is studied. The extended range ensemble forecasts (8 members, the initial perturbations of the lagged average forecast (LAF)(0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 GMT in two consecutive days) of the 500 hPa height field with the global spectral model (T63L16) from January to May 1997 are provided by the National Climate Center of China. The relationship between the spread of ensemble measured by root-mean-square deviation of ensemble member from ensemble mean and forecast skill (the anomaly correlation or the root-mean-square distance between the ensemble mean forecast and the observation) is significant. The spread of ensemble can evaluate the useful forecast days N for the best estimate of 30 days mean. Thus, a weighted mean approach based on ensemble spread is put forward for monthly dynamical prediction. The anomaly correlation of the weighted monthly mean by the ensemble spread is higher than that of both the arithmetic mean and the linear weighted mean. Better results of the monthly mean circulation and anomaly are obtained from the ensemble spread weighted mean.

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