Advanced Search
Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 23 Issue 6

Nov.  2006

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2006 >  23(6): 1003-1019

Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Ni?no-La Ni?na Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

  • 1.

    Monsoon and Environment Research Group, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871,Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610071


doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-1003-4

  • One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Ni?na) to a warm water state (El Ni?no) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980–2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Ni?no (or La Ni?na) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Ni?no and La Ni?na events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Ni?no event to a La Ni?na event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Ni?no or La Ni?na event at least one year in advance.
  • [1] Hai ZHI, Rong-Hua ZHANG, Pengfei LIN, Peng YU, 2019: Interannual Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific in CMIP5 Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 378-396.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7309-1
    [2] Wu Aiming, Ni Yunqi, 1997: The Influence of Tibetan Plateau on the Interannual Variability of Atmospheric Circulation over Tropical Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 14, 69-80.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0045-6
    [3] ZHANG Liping, WU Lixin, YU Lisan, 2011: Oceanic Origin of A Recent La Nina-Like Trend in the Tropical Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1109-1117.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0129-6
    [4] Hai ZHI, Zihui YANG, Rong-Hua ZHANG, Pengfei LIN, Jifeng QI, Yu HUANG, Meng DONG, 2023: Asymmetry of Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific during Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Phases, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1269-1284.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-2284-y
    [5] FU Weiwei, 2012: Altimetric Data Assimilation by EnOI and 3DVAR in a Tropical Pacific Model: Impact on the Simulation of Variability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 823-837.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-1022-7
    [6] ZHI Hai, ZHANG Rong-Hua, LIN Pengfei, WANG Lanning, 2015: Simulation of Salinity Variability and the Related Freshwater Flux Forcing in the Tropical Pacific: An Evaluation Using the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1551-1564.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4240-6
    [7] SUN Jilin, Peter CHU, LIU Qinyu, 2006: The Role of the Halted Baroclinic Mode at the Central Equatorial Pacific in El Ni?no Event, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 45-53.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0005-6
    [8] Zhang Renhe, Zhao Gang, 2001: Meridional Wind Stress Anomalies over the Tropical Pacific and the Onset of El Ni?o Part Ⅱ: Dynamical Analysis, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 1053-1065.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0022-4
    [9] Chengyang GUAN, Xin WANG, Haijun YANG, 2023: Understanding the Development of the 2018/19 Central Pacific El Niño, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 177-185.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1410-1
    [10] YAN Bangliang, 2005: On the Mechanism of the Locking of the El Ni o Event Onset Phase to Boreal Spring, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 741-750.  doi: 10.1007/BF02918717
    [11] YUAN Yuan, ZHOU Wen, YANG Hui, LI Chongyin, 2008: Warming in the Northwestern Indian Ocean Associated with the El Ni\~no Event, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 246-252.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0246-7
    [12] GAO Jianyun, Tim LI, 2012: Interannual Variation of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 1279-1291.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1031-1
    [13] Peng Yongqing, Yan Shaojin, 1994: Seasonal Variation Features of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks with Their Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 463-469.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658167
    [14] Wansuo DUAN, Chaoming HUANG, Hui XU, 2017: Nonlinearity Modulating Intensities and Spatial Structures of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niño Events, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 737-756.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6148-9
    [15] Yuanpu LI, Wenshou TIAN, 2017: Different Impact of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niño on the Duration of Sudden Stratospheric Warming, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 771-782.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6286-0
    [16] Soon-Il AN, 2018: Impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Frequency Asymmetry of El Niño and La Niña Events, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 493-494.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8024-7
    [17] Zhang Qin, Zhu Yufeng, Ni Yunqi, 1995: QBO Features of Tropical Pacific wind Stress Field with the Relation to El Nino, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 87-94.  doi: 10.1007/BF02661290
    [18] Xianghui FANG, Fei ZHENG, Kexin LI, Zeng-Zhen HU, Hongli REN, Jie WU, Xingrong CHEN, Weiren LAN, Yuan YUAN, Licheng FENG, Qifa CAI, Jiang ZHU, 2023: Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La Niña Event?, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 6-13.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-2147-6
    [19] Shaolei TANG, Jing-Jia LUO, Lin CHEN, Yongqiang YU, 2022: Distinct Evolution of the SST Anomalies in the Far Eastern Pacific between the 1997/98 and 2015/16 Extreme El Niños, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 927-942.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1263-z
    [20] Tingyu Wang, Ping Huang, Xianke Yang, 2024: Understanding the low predictability of the 2015–2016 El Niño event based on a deep learning model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-3238-3
PDF

Get Citation+

shu
Export:  

Share Article

Article Metrics

Article Views: 1261 Times

PDF downloads: 933 Times

Cited by: Times
  • 加载中

    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 November 2006
    Manuscript revised: 10 November 2006
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Ni?no-La Ni?na Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

    • 1. Monsoon and Environment Research Group, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871,Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610071
    • Manuscript received: 2006-11-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2006-11-10

    Abstract: One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Ni?na) to a warm water state (El Ni?no) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980–2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Ni?no (or La Ni?na) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Ni?no and La Ni?na events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Ni?no event to a La Ni?na event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Ni?no or La Ni?na event at least one year in advance.

      HTML

    Catalog

      Publish with AAS

      Contact us

      Links

      Copyright © 2018-2028 ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 京ICP备14024088号-7

      Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd  support: info@rhhz.net  

      /

      DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
      Return
      Return