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Volume 24 Issue 2

Mar.  2007

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2007 >  24(2): 336-342

A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

  • 1.

    National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; Central University for Nationalities, Beijing 100081,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081


doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0336-y

  • The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ``yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or ``yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.
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    [2] Congbin FU, 2017: From Climate to Global Change: Following the Footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's Research, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 1159-1168.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6300-6
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    [10] Lijing CHENG, John ABRAHAM, Kevin E. TRENBERTH, Tim BOYER, Michael E. MANN, Jiang ZHU, Fan WANG, Fujiang YU, Ricardo LOCARNINI, John FASULLO, Fei ZHENG, Yuanlong LI, Bin ZHANG, Liying WAN, Xingrong CHEN, Dakui WANG, Licheng FENG, Xiangzhou SONG, Yulong LIU, Franco RESEGHETTI, Simona SIMONCELLI, Viktor GOURETSKI, Gengxin CHEN, Alexey MISHONOV, Jim REAGAN, Karina VON SCHUCKMANN, Yuying PAN, Zhetao TAN, Yujing ZHU, Wangxu WEI, Guancheng LI, Qiuping REN, Lijuan CAO, Yayang LU, 2024: New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 March 2007
    Manuscript revised: 10 March 2007
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    • 1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; Central University for Nationalities, Beijing 100081,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
    • Manuscript received: 2007-03-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2007-03-10

    Abstract: The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ``yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or ``yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

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