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Volume 24 Issue 3

May  2007

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2007 >  24(3): 503-508

Prediction of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature in a Region of China

  • 1.

    Division of Management Information Science, Dong-A University, Busan 604-714, Korea,Department of Statistics, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea


doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0503-1

  • In conventional time series analysis, a process is often modeled as three additive components: linear trend, seasonal effect, and random noise. In this paper, we perform an analysis of surface air temperature in a region of China using a decomposition method in time series analysis. Applications to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Collaborative Reanalysis data in this region of China are discussed. The main finding was that the surface air temperature trend estimated for January 1948 to February 2006 was not statistically significant at 0.5904oC (100 yr)-1. Forecasting aspects are also considered.
  • [1] LI Qingxiang, LIU Xiaoning, ZHANG Hongzheng, Thomas C. PETERSON, David R. EASTERLING, 2004: Detecting and Adjusting Temporal Inhomogeneity in Chinese Mean Surface Air Temperature Data, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 260-268.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915712
    [2] CHEN Wei, and LU Riyu, 2014: A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 735-742.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3154-4
    [3] MAN Wenmin, and ZHOU Tianjun, 2014: Regional-scale Surface Air Temperature and East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium Simulated by the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 765-778.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3123-y
    [4] CHEN Wei, LU Riyu, 2014: The Interannual Variation in Monthly Temperature over Northeast China during Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 515-524.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3102-3
    [5] LIU Yonghe, FENG Jinming, MA Zhuguo, 2014: An Analysis of Historical and Future Temperature Fluctuations over China Based on CMIP5 Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 457-467.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3093-0
    [6] Peng Yongqing, Zhu Yufeng, Yan Shaojin, 1994: Preliminary Study of Reconstruction of a Dynamic System Using an One-Dimensional Time Series, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 277-284.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658146
    [7] Jing Peng, Li Dan, xiba tang, 2023: Spatial variation in CO2 concentration improves simulated surface air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3249-5
    [8] Haoxin ZHANG, Naiming YUAN, Zhuguo MA, Yu HUANG, 2021: Understanding the Soil Temperature Variability at Different Depths: Effects of Surface Air Temperature, Snow Cover, and the Soil Memory, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 493-503.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0074-y
    [9] Wei CHEN, Xiaowei HONG, Riyu LU, Aifen JIN, Shizhu JIN, Jae-Cheol NAM, Jin-Ho SHIN, Tae-Young GOO, Baek-Jo KIM, 2016: Variation in Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia and Its Associated Circulation Anomalies, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 1-9.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5056-0
    [10] Chaofan LI, Riyu LU, Philip E. BETT, Adam A. SCAIFE, Nicola MARTIN, 2018: Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 955-964.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7291-7
    [11] Wu Renguang, Chen Lieting, 1995: Interannual Fluctuations of Surface Air Temperature over North America and Its Relationship to the North Pacific SST Anomaly, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 20-28.  doi: 10.1007/BF02661284
    [12] WANG Jia, ZHI Xiefei, and CHEN Yuwen, 2013: Probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction of decadal variability of East Asian surface air temperature based on IPCC-AR5 near-term climate simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1129-1142.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2182-9
    [13] Shangfeng CHEN, Linye SONG, 2018: Impact of the Winter North Pacific Oscillation on the Surface Air Temperature over Eurasia and North America: Sensitivity to the Index Definition, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 702-712.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7111-5
    [14] Yu Rucong, Zhang Minghua, Yu Yongqiang, Liu Yimin, 2001: Summer Monsoon Rainfalls over Mid-Eastern China Lagged Correlated with Global SSTs, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 179-196.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0012-6
    [15] Yanni Qu, Mitchell D. Goldberg, Murty Divakarla, 2001: Ozone Profile Retrieval from Satellite Observation Using High Spectral Resolution Infrared Sounding Instrument, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 959-971.
    [16] YUAN Wei, SUN Jianqi, 2009: Enhancement of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation Influence on Northern Hemisphere Air Temperature, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 1209-1214.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8148-x
    [17] Qian Weihong, Zhang Henian, Zhu Yafen, Dong-Kyou Lee, 2001: lnterannual and lnterdecadal Variability of East Asian Acas and Their Impact on Temperature of China in Winter Season for the Last Century, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 511-523.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0041-1
    [18] TIAN Di, GUO Yan*, DONG Wenjie, 2015: Future Changes and Uncertainties in Temperature and Precipitation over China Based on CMIP5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 487-496.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4102-7
    [19] Jie ZHANG, Tongwen WU, Fang ZHANG, Kalli FURTADO, Xiaoge XIN, Xueli SHI, Jianglong LI, Min CHU, Li ZHANG, Qianxia LIU, Jinghui Yan, Min WEI, Qiang MA, 2021: BCC-ESM1 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 317-328.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0151-2
    [20] H. M. HASANEAN, H. Abdel BASSET, M. A. A. HUSSEIN, 2015: On the Relationship between Climatic Variables and Pressure Systems over Saudi Arabia in the Winter Season, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 690-703.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4149-5
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 May 2007
    Manuscript revised: 10 May 2007
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Prediction of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature in a Region of China

    • 1. Division of Management Information Science, Dong-A University, Busan 604-714, Korea,Department of Statistics, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea
    • Manuscript received: 2007-05-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2007-05-10

    Abstract: In conventional time series analysis, a process is often modeled as three additive components: linear trend, seasonal effect, and random noise. In this paper, we perform an analysis of surface air temperature in a region of China using a decomposition method in time series analysis. Applications to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Collaborative Reanalysis data in this region of China are discussed. The main finding was that the surface air temperature trend estimated for January 1948 to February 2006 was not statistically significant at 0.5904oC (100 yr)-1. Forecasting aspects are also considered.

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