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Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in an AGCM


doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0808-0

  • It is well known that significant interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) occurred around the end of the 1970s. Whether these variations can be attributed to the evolution of global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration distribution is investigated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The model is forced with observed monthly global SST and sea ice evolution through 1958--1999. A total of four integrations starting from different initial conditions are carried out. It is found that only one of these reproduces the observed interdecadal changes of the EASM after the 1970s, including weakened low-level meridional wind, decreased surface air temperature and increased sea level pressure in central China, as well as the southwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge and the strengthened 200-hPa westerlies. This discrepancy among these simulated results suggests that the interdecadal variation of the EASM cannot be accounted for by historical global SST and sea ice evolution. Thus, the possibility that the interdecadal timescale change of monsoon is a natural variability of the coupled climate system evolution cannot be excluded.
  • [1] Xue Feng, 2001: Interannual to Interdecadal Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon and its Association with the Global Atmospheric Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 567-575.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0045-x
    [2] Ya GAO, Huijun WANG, Dong CHEN, 2017: Interdecadal Variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation Variability and the Associated Sea Surface Temperatures on Interannual Scales, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 816-832.  doi: 10.1007/ s00376-017-6246-8
    [3] Kui LIU, Lian-Tong ZHOU, Zhibiao WANG, Yong LIU, 2023: Interdecadal Enhancement in the Relationship between the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central-Western Pacific after the Early 1990s, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1766-1782.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2200-0
    [4] MAN Wenmin, and ZHOU Tianjun, 2014: Regional-scale Surface Air Temperature and East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium Simulated by the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 765-778.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3123-y
    [5] ZHOU Botao, WANG Huijun, 2008: Interdecadal Change in the Connection Between Hadley Circulation and Winter Temperature in East Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 24-30.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0024-6
    [6] WANG Jia, GUO Yufu, 2004: Possible Impacts of Barents Sea Ice on the Eurasian Atmospheric Circulation and the Rainfall of East China in the Beginning of Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 662-674.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915733
    [7] Peng HU, Wen CHEN, Shangfeng CHEN, Lin WANG, Yuyun LIU, 2022: The Weakening Relationship between ENSO and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in Recent Decades, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 443-455.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1208-6
    [8] Gill M. MARTIN, Amulya CHEVUTURI, Ruth E. COMER, Nick J. DUNSTONE, Adam A. SCAIFE, Daquan ZHANG, 2019: Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 253-260.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8100-z
    [9] Qinghua YANG, Jiping LIU, Matti LEPPÄRANTA, Qizhen SUN, Rongbin LI, Lin ZHANG, Thomas JUNG, Ruibo LEI, Zhanhai ZHANG, Ming LI, Jiechen ZHAO, Jingjing CHENG, 2016: Albedo of Coastal Landfast Sea Ice in Prydz Bay, Antarctica: Observations and Parameterization, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 535-543.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5114-7
    [10] Xinrong WU, Shaoqing ZHANG, Zhengyu LIU, 2016: Implementation of a One-Dimensional Enthalpy Sea-Ice Model in a Simple Pycnocline Prediction Model for Sea-Ice Data Assimilation Studies, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 193-207.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5099-2
    [11] Yuyang GUO, Yongqiang YU, Pengfei LIN, Hailong LIU, Bian HE, Qing BAO, Bo AN, Shuwen ZHAO, Lijuan HUA, 2020: Simulation and Improvements of Oceanic Circulation and Sea Ice by the Coupled Climate System Model FGOALS-f3-L, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1133-1148.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0006-x
    [12] Qian YANG, Shichang KANG, Haipeng YU, Yaoxian YANG, 2023: Impact of the Shrinkage of Arctic Sea Ice on Eurasian Snow Cover Changes in 1979–2021, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 2183-2194.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2272-x
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    [14] FENG Jinming, WEI Ting, DONG Wenjie, WU Qizhong, and WANG Yongli, 2014: CMIP5/AMIP GCM Simulations of East Asian Summer Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 836-850.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3131-y
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 September 2007
Manuscript revised: 10 September 2007
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in an AGCM

  • 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Abstract: It is well known that significant interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) occurred around the end of the 1970s. Whether these variations can be attributed to the evolution of global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration distribution is investigated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The model is forced with observed monthly global SST and sea ice evolution through 1958--1999. A total of four integrations starting from different initial conditions are carried out. It is found that only one of these reproduces the observed interdecadal changes of the EASM after the 1970s, including weakened low-level meridional wind, decreased surface air temperature and increased sea level pressure in central China, as well as the southwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge and the strengthened 200-hPa westerlies. This discrepancy among these simulated results suggests that the interdecadal variation of the EASM cannot be accounted for by historical global SST and sea ice evolution. Thus, the possibility that the interdecadal timescale change of monsoon is a natural variability of the coupled climate system evolution cannot be excluded.

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