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Volume 25 Issue 3

May  2008

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2008 >  25(3): 361-366

ENSO Amplitude Change in Observation and Coupled Models

  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002 ; Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10004;Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871


doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0361-5

  • Observations show that the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, after removing both the long term trend and decadal change of the background climate, has been enhanced by as much as 60% during the past 50 years. This shift in ENSO amplitude can be related to mean state changes in global climate. Past global warming has caused a weakening of the Walker circulation over the equatorial Indo-Pacific oceans, as well as a weakening of the trade winds and a reduction in the equatorial upwelling. These changes in tropical climatology play as stabilizing factors of the tropical coupling system. However, the shallower and strengthening thermocline in the equatorial Pacific increases the SST sensitivity to thermocline and wind stress variabilities and tend to destabilize the tropical coupling system. Observations suggest that the destabilizing factors, such as the strengthening thermocline, may have overwhelmed the stabilizing effects of the atmosphere, and played a deterministic role in the enhanced ENSO variability, at least during the past half century. This is different from the recent assessment of IPCC-AR4 coupled models.
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    [2] Paxson K. Y. CHEUNG, Wen ZHOU, Dongxiao WANG, Marco Y. T. LEUNG, 2022: Dissimilarity among Ocean Reanalyses in Equatorial Pacific Upper-Ocean Heat Content and Its Relationship with ENSO, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 67-79.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1109-8
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 May 2008
    Manuscript revised: 10 May 2008
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    ENSO Amplitude Change in Observation and Coupled Models

    • 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002 ; Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10004;Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871
    • Manuscript received: 2008-05-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2008-05-10

    Abstract: Observations show that the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, after removing both the long term trend and decadal change of the background climate, has been enhanced by as much as 60% during the past 50 years. This shift in ENSO amplitude can be related to mean state changes in global climate. Past global warming has caused a weakening of the Walker circulation over the equatorial Indo-Pacific oceans, as well as a weakening of the trade winds and a reduction in the equatorial upwelling. These changes in tropical climatology play as stabilizing factors of the tropical coupling system. However, the shallower and strengthening thermocline in the equatorial Pacific increases the SST sensitivity to thermocline and wind stress variabilities and tend to destabilize the tropical coupling system. Observations suggest that the destabilizing factors, such as the strengthening thermocline, may have overwhelmed the stabilizing effects of the atmosphere, and played a deterministic role in the enhanced ENSO variability, at least during the past half century. This is different from the recent assessment of IPCC-AR4 coupled models.

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