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Volume 25 Issue 4

Jul.  2008

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2008 >  25(4): 641-654

Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond

  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; Nanjing Information and Technology University, Nanjing 21004;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029


doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0641-0

  • Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the ``Climate of the 20th century experiment", ``CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment" and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model's ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5C and 2.4C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.
  • [1] Jianping DUAN, Hongzhou ZHU, Li DAN, Qiuhong TANG, 2023: Recent Progress in Studies on the Influences of Human Activity on Regional Climate over China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1362-1378.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2327-z
    [2] ZHU Weijun, Kevin HAMILTON, 2008: Empirical Estimates of Global Climate Sensitivity: An Assessment of Strategies Using a Coupled GCM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 339-347.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0339-3
    [3] YAN Li, WANG Panxing, YU Yongqiang, LI Lijuan, WANG Bin, 2010: Potential Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere GCM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 921-936.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9062-y
    [4] Zuohao CAO, Ronald E.STEWART, M.K.YAU, 2004: A New Perspective of the Physical Processes Associated with the Clear-Sky Greenhouse Effect over High Latitudes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 171-180.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915703
    [5] Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui, Filippo Giorgi, 2001: Climate Change due to Greenhouse Effects in China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 1224-1230.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0036-y
    [6] LIU Qinyu, WEN Na, YU Yongqiang, 2006: The Role of the Kuroshio in the Winter North Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction: Comparison of a Coupled Model and Observations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 181-189.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0181-4
    [7] ZHOU Ningfang, YU Yongqiang, QIAN Yongfu, 2009: Bimodality of the South Asia High Simulated by Coupled Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 1226-1234.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-7219-3
    [8] YU Yongqiang, ZHANG Xuehong, GUO Yufu, 2004: Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 444-455.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915571
    [9] Congbin FU, 2017: From Climate to Global Change: Following the Footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's Research, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 1159-1168.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6300-6
    [10] YANG Shili, DONG Wenjie, CHOU Jieming, FENG Jinming, YAN Xiaodong, WEI Zhigang, YUAN Wenping, GUO Yan, TANG Yanli, HU Jiacong, 2015: A Brief Introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and Its Earth Surface Temperature Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1683-1688.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5050-6
    [11] WU Chunqiang, ZHOU Tianjun, SUN De-Zheng, BAO Qing, 2011: Water Vapor and Cloud Radiative Forcings over the Pacific Ocean Simulated by the LASG/IAP AGCM: Sensitivity to Convection Schemes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 80-98.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9205-1
    [12] SUN Zhian, WANG Xiaoyun, ZENG Xianning, 2006: Radiative Forcing of SO2 and NOx: A Case Study in Beijing, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 317-322.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0317-6
    [13] YU Yongqiang, ZHENG Weipeng, WANG Bin, LIU Hailong, LIU Jiping, 2011: Versions g1.0 and g1.1 of the LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean--Atmosphere--Land System Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 99-117.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9112-5
    [14] Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Filippo Giorgi, 2002: Changes of Extreme Events in Regional Climate Simulations over East Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 927-942.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0056-2
    [15] Jie SUN, Michael SECOR, Ming CAI, Xiaoming HU, 2024: A Quasi-Linear Relationship between Planetary Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective-Transportive Climate Model of a Gray Atmosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 8-18.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2386-1
    [16] WANG Mingxing, LIU Qiang, YANG Xin, 2004: A Review of Research on Human Activity Induced Climate Change I. Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 314-321.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915561
    [17] Wang Huijun, 1997: The Effect of Heating Anomaly on the Asian Circulation-A GCM Experiment, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 14, 81-86.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0046-5
    [18] Boyin HUANG, ZHU Jiang, YANG Haijun, 2014: Mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 241-251.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3021-3
    [19] HUANG Ying, QIAN Yongfu, 2007: Analysis of the Simulated Climatic Characters of the South Asia High with a Flexible Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere GCM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 136-146.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0136-4
    [20] Liu Hui, Zhang Xuehong, 1999: A Study of SST Warming Trend in the Western Equatorial Pacific in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land GCM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 24-30.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0002-7
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 July 2008
    Manuscript revised: 10 July 2008
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond

    • 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; Nanjing Information and Technology University, Nanjing 21004;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
    • Manuscript received: 2008-07-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2008-07-10

    Abstract: Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the ``Climate of the 20th century experiment", ``CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment" and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model's ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5C and 2.4C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

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