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Volume 25 Issue 6

Nov.  2008

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2008 >  25(6): 960-973

Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrological Cycles in the Asian Monsoon Region

  • 1.

    Storm, Flood, and Landslide Research Department, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan;Climate Risk Assessment Research Section, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan;Atmospheric Physics Section, Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan


doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0960-1

  • The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warming-related concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems, such as droughts, floods, and soil erosion, water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed, mainly through the use of GCMs, coarse spatial resolutions and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the variability in such systems as the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies, the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting from climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper, an attempt at dynamical downscaling of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the results of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also, some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation, which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation, were successfully produced. Under global warming, the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal, and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions, the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming, the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However, both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water demand and water availability in the agricultural season.
  • [1] Zhongfeng XU, Ying HAN, Meng-Zhuo ZHANG, Chi-Yung TAM, Zong-Liang YANG, Ahmed M. EL KENAWY, Congbin FU, 2024: Assessing the Performance of a Dynamical Downscaling Simulation Driven by a Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Dataset for Asian Climate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 974-988.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3101-y
    [2] Donglin GUO, Huijun WANG, 2016: Comparison of a Very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM Dynamical Downscaling in Simulating Climate in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 559-570.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5147-y
    [3] Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui, Filippo Giorgi, 2001: Climate Change due to Greenhouse Effects in China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 1224-1230.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0036-y
    [4] GAO Xuejie, LUO Yong, LIN Wantao, ZHAO Zongci, Filippo GIORGI, 2003: Simulation of Effects of Land Use Change on Climate in China by a Regional Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 583-592.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915501
    [5] Deniz BOZKURT, David H. BROMWICH, Jorge CARRASCO, Keith M. HINES, Juan Carlos MAUREIRA, Roberto RONDANELLI, 2020: Recent Near-surface Temperature Trends in the Antarctic Peninsula from Observed, Reanalysis and Regional Climate Model Data, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 477-493.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9183-x
    [6] Peihua QIN, Zhenghui XIE, Jing ZOU, Shuang LIU, Si CHEN, 2021: Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 460-479.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0141-4
    [7] Wei Helin, Wang Wei-Chyung, 1998: A Regional Climate Model Simulation of Summer Monsoon over East Asia: A Case Study of 1991 Flood in Yangtze-Huai River Valley, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 15, 489-509.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-998-0027-3
    [8] LI Jiandong, LIU Yimin, WU Guoxiong, 2009: Cloud Radiative Forcing in Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by IPCC AR4 AMIP Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 923-939.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8111-x
    [9] Jing ZOU, Zhenghui XIE, Chesheng ZHAN, Feng CHEN, Peihua QIN, Tong HU, Jinbo XIE, 2019: Coupling of a Regional Climate Model with a Crop Development Model and Evaluation of the Coupled Model across China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 527-540.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8160-0
    [10] SHI Xueli, XIE Zhenghui, LIU Yiming, YANG Hongwei, 2007: Implementation of a Surface Runoff Model with Horton and Dunne Mechanisms into the Regional Climate Model RegCM_NCC, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 750-764.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0750-1
    [11] Liu Huaqiang, Qian Yongfu, Zheng Yiqun, 2002: Effects of Nested Area Size upon Regional Climate Model Simulations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 111-120.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0038-4
    [12] DING Yihui, SHI Xueli, LIU Yiming, LIU Yan, LI Qingquan, QIAN Yongfu, MIAO Manqian, ZHAI Guoqing, GAO Kun, 2006: Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM NCC). Part I: Sensitivity Study, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 323-341.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0487-2
    [13] CHEN Feng, and XIE Zhenghui, 2013: An evaluation of RegCM3_CRES for regional climate modeling in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1187-1200.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2114-8
    [14] ZENG Xinmin, LIU Jinbo, MA Zhuguo, SONG Shuai, XI Chaoli, WANG Hanjie, 2010: Study on the Effects of Land Surface Heterogeneitiesin Temperature and Moisture on Annual Scale Regional Climate Simulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 154-163.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8117-4
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    [16] Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, Filippo Giorgi, 2002: Changes of Extreme Events in Regional Climate Simulations over East Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 927-942.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0056-2
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    [18] DING Yihui, LIU Yiming, SHI Xueli, LI Qingquan, LI Qiaoping, LIU Yan, 2006: Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons inChina byUsing a Nested Regional ClimateModel (RegCM NCC) Part II: The Experimental Seasonal Prediction, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 487-503.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0323-8
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    [20] Xianghui KONG, Aihui WANG, Xunqiang BI, Dan WANG, 2019: Assessment of Temperature Extremes in China Using RegCM4 and WRF, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 363-377.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8144-0
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 November 2008
    Manuscript revised: 10 November 2008
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrological Cycles in the Asian Monsoon Region

    • 1. Storm, Flood, and Landslide Research Department, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan;Climate Risk Assessment Research Section, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan;Atmospheric Physics Section, Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
    • Manuscript received: 2008-11-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2008-11-10

    Abstract: The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warming-related concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems, such as droughts, floods, and soil erosion, water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed, mainly through the use of GCMs, coarse spatial resolutions and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the variability in such systems as the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies, the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting from climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper, an attempt at dynamical downscaling of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the results of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also, some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation, which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation, were successfully produced. Under global warming, the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal, and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions, the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming, the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However, both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water demand and water availability in the agricultural season.

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