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Volume 26 Issue 1

Jan.  2009

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2009 >  26(1): 67-77

Theoretical Basis and Application of an Analogue- Dynamical Model in the Lorenz System

  • 1.

    Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081; College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081


doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0067-3

  • The theoretical basis and application of an analogue-dynamical model (ADM) in the Lorenz system is studied. The ADM can effectively combine statistical and dynamical methods in which the small disturbance of the current initial value superimposed on the historical analogue reference state can be regarded as a prediction objective. Primary analyses show that under the condition of appending disturbances in model parameters, the model errors of ADM are much smaller than those of the pure dynamical model (PDM). The characteristics of predictability on the ADM in the Lorenz system are analyzed in phase space by conducting case studies and global experiments. The results show that the ADM can quite effectively reduce prediction errors and prolong the valid time of the prediction in most situations in contrast to the PDM, but when model errors are considerably small, the latter will be superior to the former. To overcome such a problem, the multi-reference-state updating can be applied to introduce the information of multi-analogue and update analogue and can exhibit exciting performance in the ADM.
  • [1] Xuan LI, Jie FENG, Ruiqiang DING, Jianping LI, 2021: Application of Backward Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Method to Assessing the Relative Impacts of Initial Condition and Model Errors on Local Backward Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 1486-1496.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-0434-2
    [2] Ruiqiang DING, Baojia LIU, Bin GU, Jianping LI, Xuan LI, 2019: Predictability of Ensemble Forecasting Estimated Using the Kullback-Leibler Divergence in the Lorenz Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, , 837-846.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9034-9
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 January 2009
    Manuscript revised: 10 January 2009
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Theoretical Basis and Application of an Analogue- Dynamical Model in the Lorenz System

    • 1. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081; College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
    • Manuscript received: 2009-01-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2009-01-10

    Abstract: The theoretical basis and application of an analogue-dynamical model (ADM) in the Lorenz system is studied. The ADM can effectively combine statistical and dynamical methods in which the small disturbance of the current initial value superimposed on the historical analogue reference state can be regarded as a prediction objective. Primary analyses show that under the condition of appending disturbances in model parameters, the model errors of ADM are much smaller than those of the pure dynamical model (PDM). The characteristics of predictability on the ADM in the Lorenz system are analyzed in phase space by conducting case studies and global experiments. The results show that the ADM can quite effectively reduce prediction errors and prolong the valid time of the prediction in most situations in contrast to the PDM, but when model errors are considerably small, the latter will be superior to the former. To overcome such a problem, the multi-reference-state updating can be applied to introduce the information of multi-analogue and update analogue and can exhibit exciting performance in the ADM.

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