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Volume 26 Issue 5

Sep.  2009

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2009 >  26(5): 813-839

Improving Multimodel Weather Forecast of Monsoon Rain Over China Using FSU Superensemble

  • 1.

    Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306


doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8162-z

  • In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007 and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days 1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite. Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events.
  • [1] LI Xiangshu, GUO Xueliang, FU Danhong, 2013: TRMM-retrieved Cloud Structure and Evolution of MCSs over the Northern South China Sea and Impacts of CAPE and Vertical Wind Shear, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 77-88.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2055-2
    [2] Hongke CAI, Yaqin MAO, Xuanhao ZHU, Yunfei FU, Renjun ZHOU, 2024: Comparison of the Minimum Bounding Rectangle and Minimum Circumscribed Ellipse of Rain Cells from TRMM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 391-406.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2281-9
    [3] Shuang LUO, Yunfei FU, Shengnan ZHOU, Xiaofeng WANG, Dongyong WANG, 2020: Analysis of the Relationship between the Cloud Water Path and Precipitation Intensity of Mature Typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 359-376.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9204-9
    [4] Sijia LI, Yuan WANG, Huiling YUAN, Jinjie SONG, Xin XU, 2016: Ensemble Mean Forecast Skill and Applications with the T213 Ensemble Prediction System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 1297-1305.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6155-2
    [5] DING Yihui, LI Chongyin, LIU Yanju, 2004: Overview of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 343-360.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915563
    [6] Jie FENG, Jianping LI, Jing ZHANG, Deqiang LIU, Ruiqiang DING, 2019: The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 271-278.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8123-5
    [7] Jiang Jing, Qian Yongfu, 1999: The Study on the Interannual Variation and the Mechanism of the South China Sea Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 544-558.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0030-3
    [8] Long S. CHIU, Zhong LIU, Jearanai VONGSAARD, Stanley MORAIN, Amy BUDGE, Paul NEVILLE, Chandra BALES, 2006: Comparison of TRMM and Water District Rain Rates over New Mexico, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 1-13.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0001-x
    [9] CHEN Haoming, YUAN Weihua, LI Jian, YU Rucong, 2012: A Possible Cause for Different Diurnal Variations of Warm Season Rainfall as Shown in Station Observations and TRMM 3B42 Data over the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 193-200.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0218-1
    [10] QIAN Yongfu, ZHANG Yan, HUANG Yanyan, HUANG Ying, YAO Yonghong, 2004: The Effects of the Thermal Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Vicinities on Climate Variability in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 369-381.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915565
    [11] Wang Shiyu, Qian Yongfu, 2001: Modeling of the 1998 East Asian Summer Monsoon by a Limited Area Model with Incorporated Coordinate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 209-224.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0014-4
    [12] Huw C. DAVIES, 2006: Large-Scale Weather Systems: A Future Research Priority, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 832-841.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0832-5
    [13] HU Liang, LI Yaodong, DENG Difei, 2013: An Investigation into the Relationship between Surface Rain Rate and Rain Depth over Southeast Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 142-152.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2097-5
    [14] YANG Jing, YANG Meirong, LIU Chao, FENG Guili, 2013: Case Studies of Sprite-producing and Non-sprite-producing Summer Thunderstorms, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1786-1808.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2120-5
    [15] MA Leiming, DUAN Yihong, ZHU Yongti, 2004: The Structure and Rainfall Features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun (2002), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 951-963.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915597
    [16] T. N. Krishnamurti, Mukul Tewari, Ed Bensman, Wei Han, Zhan Zhang, William K. M. Lau, 1999: An Ensemble Forecast of the South China Sea Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 159-182.  doi: 10.1007/BF02973080
    [17] HONG Bo, WANG Dongxiao, 2008: Sensitivity Study of the Seasonal Mean Circulation in the Northern South China Sea, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 824-840.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0824-8
    [18] Li Chongyin, Wu Jingbo, 2000: On the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in 1998, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 17, 193-204.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-000-0003-z
    [19] Gill M. MARTIN, Amulya CHEVUTURI, Ruth E. COMER, Nick J. DUNSTONE, Adam A. SCAIFE, Daquan ZHANG, 2019: Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 253-260.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8100-z
    [20] Lu Riyu, Chan-Su Ryu, Buwen Dong, 2002: Associations between the Western North Pacific Monsoon and the South China Sea Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 12-24.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0030-z
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 September 2009
    Manuscript revised: 10 September 2009
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Improving Multimodel Weather Forecast of Monsoon Rain Over China Using FSU Superensemble

    • 1. Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306
    • Manuscript received: 2009-09-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2009-09-10

    Abstract: In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007 and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days 1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite. Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events.

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