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Multi-Model Projection of July--August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature


doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0052-x

  • This is the second part of the authors' analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July--August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6--0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5oC) than over eastern China (oC). The multi-model ensemble (MME) exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the 1pctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest--southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (~1oC--2oC) is less than MME warming (~2oC--4oC), indicating a relatively robust temperature change under CO2 doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for ``transporting" the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.
  • [1] LI Hongmei, FENG Lei, ZHOU Tianjun, 2011: Multi-model Projection of July--August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO$_{2}$ Doubling. Part I: Precipitation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 433-447.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0013-4
    [2] REN Guoyu, DING Yihui, ZHAO Zongci, ZHENG Jingyun, WU Tongwen, TANG Guoli, XU Ying, 2012: Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 958-977.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1200-2
    [3] DING Yihui, REN Guoyu, ZHAO Zongci, XU Ying, LUO Yong, LI Qiaoping, ZHANG Jin, 2007: Detection, Causes and Projection of Climate Change over China: An Overview of Recent Progress, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 954-971.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0954-4
    [4] Guo Yufu, Yu Yongqiang, Liu Xiying, Zhang Xuehong, 2001: Simulation of Climate Change Induced by CO2 Increasing for East Asia with IAP/LASG GOALS Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 53-66.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0004-6
    [5] Ahmad Norazhar Mohd YATIM, Mohd Talib LATIF, Fatimah AHAMAD, Md Firoz KHAN, Mohd Shahrul Mohd NADZIR, Liew JUNENG, 2019: Observed Trends in Extreme Temperature over the Klang Valley, Malaysia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 1355-1370.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9075-0
    [6] Xiujing YU, Guoyu REN, Panfeng ZHANG, Jingbiao HU, Ning LIU, Jianping LI, Chenchen ZHANG, 2020: Extreme Temperature Change of the Last 110 Years in Changchun, Northeast China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 347-358.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9165-z
    [7] Yan Zhongwei, Yang Chi, Phil Jones, 2001: Influence of Inhomogeneity on the Estimation of Mean and Extreme Temperature Trends in Beijing and Shanghai, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 309-322.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919312
    [8] LI Hongmei, ZHOU Tianjun, LI Chao, 2010: Decreasing Trend in Global Land Monsoon Precipitation over the Past 50 Years Simulated by a Coupled Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 285-292.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8173-9
    [9] TIAN Di, GUO Yan*, DONG Wenjie, 2015: Future Changes and Uncertainties in Temperature and Precipitation over China Based on CMIP5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 487-496.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4102-7
    [10] JIANG Dabang, 2008: Projected Potential Vegetation Change in China under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 126-138.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0126-1
    [11] ZHOU Mengzi, WANG Huijun, 2015: Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northeastern China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 889-897.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4161-9
    [12] T. C. LEE, H. S. CHAN, E. W. L. GINN, M. C. WONG, 2011: Long-Term Trends in Extreme Temperatures in Hong Kong and Southern China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 147-157.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9160-x
    [13] Wang Huijun, 2000: The Interannual Variability of East Asian Monsoon and Its Relationship with SST in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 17, 31-47.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-000-0041-6
    [14] CAO Jian, Bin WANG, Baoqiang XIANG, Juan LI, WU Tianjie, Xiouhua FU, WU Liguang, MIN Jinzhong, 2015: Major Modes of Short-Term Climate Variability in the Newly Developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 585-600.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4200-6
    [15] CHEN Huopo, SUN Jianqi, 2009: How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 773-782.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8211-7
    [16] Yin ZHAO, Tianjun ZHOU, Wenxia ZHANG, Jian LI, 2022: Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1133-1150.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1401-2
    [17] Yanxin ZHENG, Shuanglin LI, Noel KEENLYSIDE, Shengping HE, Lingling SUO, 2024: Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2
    [18] Shengzhe CHEN, Jiping LIU, Yifan DING, Yuanyuan ZHANG, Xiao CHENG, Yongyun HU, 2021: Assessment of Snow Depth over Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite Data, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 168-186.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0213-5
    [19] Yujie WANG, Botao ZHOU, Dahe QIN, Jia WU, Rong GAO, Lianchun SONG, 2017: Changes in Mean and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over the Arid Region of Northwestern China: Observation and Projection, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 287-305.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6160-5
    [20] Jiawen ZHU, Juanxiong HE, Duoying JI, Yangchun LI, He ZHANG, Minghua ZHANG, Xiaodong ZENG, Kece FEI, Jiangbo JIN, 2024: CAS-ESM2.0 Successfully Reproduces Historical Atmospheric CO2 in a Coupled Carbon−Climate Simulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 572-580.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3172-9

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 March 2011
Manuscript revised: 10 March 2011
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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Multi-Model Projection of July--August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Abstract: This is the second part of the authors' analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July--August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6--0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5oC) than over eastern China (oC). The multi-model ensemble (MME) exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the 1pctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest--southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (~1oC--2oC) is less than MME warming (~2oC--4oC), indicating a relatively robust temperature change under CO2 doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for ``transporting" the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.

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