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Volume 27 Issue 5

Sep.  2010

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2010 >  27(5): 1210-1220

Indices of El Nino and El Nino Modoki: An improved El Nino Modoki index

  • 1.

    School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026,School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026,School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026,School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026


doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9173-5

  • In recent years, El Nino Modoki (pseudo-El Nino) has been distinguished as a unique large-scale ocean warming phenomenon happening in the central tropical Pacific that is quite different from the traditional El Nino. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used to successfully separate El Nino and El Nino Modoki. The abilities of the NINO3 index, NINO3.4 index, NINO1+2 index and NINO4 index in characterizing the El Nino are explored in detail. It is suggested that the NINO3 index is comparatively optimal to monitor the El Nino among the four NINO indices, since other NINO indices either cannot well distinguish El Nino and El Nino Modoki signals or are easily disturbed by El Nino Modoki signals. Further, an improved El Nino Modoki index (IEMI) is introduced to better represent the El Nino Modoki that is captured by the second leading EOF mode of monthly tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The IEMI is an improvement of the El Nino Modoki index (EMI) through adjusting the inappropriate weight coefficients of the three boxes of EMI, and it effectively overcomes the lack of EMI in monitoring the two historical El Nino Modoki events and also avoids the possible risk of EMI in excluding the interference of El Nino signal, indicating the realistic and potential advantages.
  • [1] Zhang Renhe, Zhao Gang, Tan Yanke, 2001: Meridional Wind Stress Anomalies over Tropical Pacific and the Onset of El Nino. Part Ⅰ: Data Analysis, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 467-480.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0038-9
    [2] YUAN Yuan, ZHOU Wen, YANG Hui, LI Chongyin, 2008: Warming in the Northwestern Indian Ocean Associated with the El Ni\~no Event, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 246-252.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0246-7
    [3] Zhang Renhe, Zhao Gang, 2001: Meridional Wind Stress Anomalies over the Tropical Pacific and the Onset of El Ni?o Part Ⅱ: Dynamical Analysis, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 1053-1065.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0022-4
    [4] Zhang Renhe, Akimasa Sumi, Masahide Kimoto, 1999: A Diagnostic Study of the Impact of El Nino on the Precipitation in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 229-241.  doi: 10.1007/BF02973084
    [5] Zhang Qin, Zhu Yufeng, Ni Yunqi, 1995: QBO Features of Tropical Pacific wind Stress Field with the Relation to El Nino, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 87-94.  doi: 10.1007/BF02661290
    [6] Shouhong WANG, MA Tian, 2011: El Nino Southern Oscillation as Sporadic Oscillations between Metastable States, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 612-622.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9089-0
    [7] Fu Congbin, Dong Dongfeng, Ralph Slutz, Joseph Fletcher, 1988: EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION SIGNALS IN THE GLOBAL TROPICAL OCEAN, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 5, 35-46.  doi: 10.1007/BF02657344
    [8] Li Chongyin, 1990: Interaction between Anomalous Winter Monsoon in East Asia and El Nino Events, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 7, 36-46.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919166
    [9] ZHANG Rong-Hua, ZHENG Fei, PEI Yuhua, ZHENG Quanan, WANG Zhanggui, 2012: Modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation by Freshwater Flux and Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 647-660.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1235-4
    [10] Jong-Suk KIM, ZHOU Wen, Ho Nam CHEUNG, Chak Hang CHOW, 2013: Variability and Risk Analysis of Hong Kong Air Quality Based on Monsoon and El Nino Conditions, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 280-290.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2074-z
    [11] BAO Ming, HAN Rongqing, 2009: Delayed Impacts of the El Nino Episodes in the Central Pacific on the Summertime Climate Anomalies of Eastern China in 2003 and 2007, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 553-563.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0553-7
    [12] Ni Yunqi, Lin Wuyin, Wang Wanqiu, Yuan Chongguang, Zhang Qin, 1993: Numerical Study for Potential Predictability of Short-Term Anomalous Climate Change Caused by El Nino, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 10, 1-10.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656949
    [13] DUAN Wansuo, ZHANG Rui, 2010: Is Model Parameter Error Related to a Significant Spring Predictability Barrier for El Nino events? Results from a Theoretical Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 1003-1013.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9166-4
    [14] ZHANG Jie, ZHOU Tianjun, BAO Qing, WU Bo, 2010: The Vertical Structures of Atmospheric Temperature Anomalies Associated with El Nino Simulated by the LASG/IAP AGCM: Sensitivity to Convection Schemes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 1051-1063.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9167-3
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    [16] XU Hui, DUAN Wansuo, 2008: What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of El Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 577-584.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0577-4
    [17] Li Chongyin, 1988: ACTIONS OF TYPHOONS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC (INCLUDING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND EL NINO, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 5, 107-116.  doi: 10.1007/BF02657352
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 September 2010
    Manuscript revised: 10 September 2010
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Indices of El Nino and El Nino Modoki: An improved El Nino Modoki index

    • 1. School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026,School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026,School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026,School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026
    • Manuscript received: 2010-09-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2010-09-10

    Abstract: In recent years, El Nino Modoki (pseudo-El Nino) has been distinguished as a unique large-scale ocean warming phenomenon happening in the central tropical Pacific that is quite different from the traditional El Nino. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used to successfully separate El Nino and El Nino Modoki. The abilities of the NINO3 index, NINO3.4 index, NINO1+2 index and NINO4 index in characterizing the El Nino are explored in detail. It is suggested that the NINO3 index is comparatively optimal to monitor the El Nino among the four NINO indices, since other NINO indices either cannot well distinguish El Nino and El Nino Modoki signals or are easily disturbed by El Nino Modoki signals. Further, an improved El Nino Modoki index (IEMI) is introduced to better represent the El Nino Modoki that is captured by the second leading EOF mode of monthly tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The IEMI is an improvement of the El Nino Modoki index (EMI) through adjusting the inappropriate weight coefficients of the three boxes of EMI, and it effectively overcomes the lack of EMI in monitoring the two historical El Nino Modoki events and also avoids the possible risk of EMI in excluding the interference of El Nino signal, indicating the realistic and potential advantages.

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