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Volume 28 Issue 6

Nov.  2011

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2011 >  28(6): 1291-1300

A Statistical-Dynamical Scheme for the Extraseasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall for 160 Observation Stations across China

  • 1.

    International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029


doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0177-6

  • The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical--dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal (one season in advance) prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China. The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model. First, the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors. Second, the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China. Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983--2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation, trend, and sign but also was stable during the whole period. Furthermore, the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010.
  • [1] HAN Leqiong, LI Shuanglin, LIU Na, 2014: An Approach for Improving Short-Term Prediction of Summer Rainfall over North China by Decomposing Interannual and Decadal Variability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 435-448.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3016-0
    [2] Kaiming HU, Yingxue LIU, Gang HUANG, Zhuoqi HE, Shang-Min LONG, 2020: Contributions to the Interannual Summer Rainfall Variability in the Mountainous Area of Central China and Their Decadal Changes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 259-268.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9099-5
    [3] Yali ZHU, Tao WANG, Jiehua MA, 2016: Influence of Internal Decadal Variability on the Summer Rainfall in Eastern China as Simulated by CCSM4, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 706-714.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-5269-x
    [4] YE Hong, LU Riyu, 2012: Dominant Patterns of Summer Rainfall Anomalies in East China during 1951--2006, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 695-704.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1153-5
    [5] WU Bingyi, ZHANG Renhe, Bin WANG, 2009: On the Association between Spring Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Chinese Summer Rainfall: A Further Study, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 666-678.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9009-3
    [6] Zhongda LIN, Yuanhai FU, Riyu LU, 2019: Intermodel Diversity in the Zonal Location of the Climatological East Asian Westerly Jet Core in Summer and Association with Rainfall over East Asia in CMIP5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 614-622.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8221-z
    [7] JIAN Maoqiu, QIAO Yunting, YUAN Zhuojian, LUO Huibang, 2006: The Impact of Atmospheric Heat Sources over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Tropical Western Pacific on the Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze-River Basin, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 149-155.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0015-4
    [8] Jinling PIAO, Wen CHEN, Ke WEI, Yong LIU, Hans-F. GRAF, Joong-Bae AHN, Alexander POGORELTSEV, 2017: An Abrupt Rainfall Decrease over the Asian Inland Plateau Region around 1999 and the Possible Underlying Mechanism, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 456-468.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6136-5
    [9] LI Chun, MA Hao, 2011: Coupled Modes of Rainfall over China and the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature in Boreal Summertime, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1201-1214.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0127-3
    [10] XUE Feng, GUO Pinwen, YU Zhihao, 2003: Influence of Interannual Variability of Antarctic Sea-Ice on Summer Rainfall in Eastern China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 97-102.  doi: 10.1007/BF03342053
    [11] Wu Renguang, Chen Lieting, 1998: Decadal Variation of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and Its Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies over East Asia and Western North Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 15, 510-522.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-998-0028-2
    [12] XIANG Jie, LIAO Qianfeng, HUANG Sixun, LAN Weiren, FENG Qiang, ZHOU Fengcai, 2006: An Application of the Adjoint Method to a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical-Cyclone Prediction Model (SD–90) II: Real Tropical Cyclone Cases, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 118-126.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0012-7
    [13] Jianfeng WANG, Ricardo M. FONSECA, Kendall RUTLEDGE, Javier MARTÍN-TORRES, Jun YU, 2020: A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling of Air Temperature over Scandinavia Using the WRF Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 57-74.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9091-0
    [14] ZHU Congwen, Chung-Kyu PARK, Woo-Sung LEE, Won-Tae YUN, 2008: Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 867-884.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0867-x
    [15] Kun-Hui YE, Chi-Yung TAM, Wen ZHOU, Soo-Jin SOHN, 2015: Seasonal Prediction of June Rainfall over South China: Model Assessment and Statistical Downscaling, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 680-689.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4047-x
    [16] LI Fang, LIN Zhongda, 2015: Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 497-504.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4073-8
    [17] Chaofan LI, Riyu LU, Nick DUNSTONE, Adam A. SCAIFE, Philip E. BETT, Fei ZHENG, 2021: The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 2055-2066.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1092-0
    [18] QI Linlin, SUN Jianhua, 2006: Application of ATOVS Microwave Radiance Assimilation to Rainfall Prediction in Summer 2004, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 815-830.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0815-6
    [19] Feng Guolin, Cao Hongxing, Gao Xinquan, Dong Wenjie, Chou Jifan, 2001: Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 701-709.
    [20] CUI Xuefeng, HUANG Gang, CHEN Wen, 2008: Notes of Numerical Simulation of Summer Rainfall in China with a Regional Climate Model REMO, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 999-1008.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0999-z
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 November 2011
    Manuscript revised: 10 November 2011
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    A Statistical-Dynamical Scheme for the Extraseasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall for 160 Observation Stations across China

    • 1. International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
    • Manuscript received: 2011-11-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2011-11-10

    Abstract: The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical--dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal (one season in advance) prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China. The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model. First, the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors. Second, the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China. Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983--2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation, trend, and sign but also was stable during the whole period. Furthermore, the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010.

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