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Volume 29 Issue 3

May  2012

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2012 >  29(3): 441-454

Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS

  • 1.

    Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,


doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-1115-3

  • The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER) hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)' retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850-hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain (20--60N, 90--150E), was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models (range: 0.39--0.51) for the period 1969--2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.
  • [1] Chen Wen, Hans-F. Graf, Huang Ronghui, 2000: The Interannual Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Relation to the Summer Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 17, 48-60.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-000-0042-5
    [2] LIU Xiangwen, WU Tongwen, YANG Song, LI Qiaoping, CHENG Yanjie, LIANG Xiaoyun, FANG Yongjie, JIE Weihua, NIE Suping, 2014: Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1(m), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 1051-1064.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-3192-6
    [3] XUE Feng, ZENG Qingcun, HUANG Ronghui, LI Chongyin, LU Riyu, ZHOU Tianjun, 2015: Recent Advances in Monsoon Studies in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 206-229.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0015-8
    [4] FENG Juan*, CHEN Wen, 2014: Interference of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in the Impact of ENSO on the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Decaying Phases, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 344-354.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3118-8
    [5] Hoffman H. N. CHEUNG, Wen ZHOU, 2016: Simple Metrics for Representing East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability: Urals Blocking and Western Pacific Teleconnection Patterns, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 695-705.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5204-6
    [6] ZHANG Ziyin, GUO Wenli, GONG Daoyi, Seong-Joong KIM, 2013: Evaluation of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Dataset in Describing East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1645-1652.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2226-1
    [7] K.-M. Lau, Song Yang, 1997: Climatology and Interannual Variability of the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 14, 141-162.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0016-y
    [8] Wen CHEN, Renhe ZHANG, Renguang WU, Zhiping WEN, Liantong ZHOU, Lin WANG, Peng HU, Tianjiao MA, Jinling PIAO, Lei SONG, Zhibiao WANG, Juncong LI, Hainan GONG, Jingliang HUANGFU, Yong LIU, 2023: Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1429-1456.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2266-8
    [9] Ji Liren, Sun Shuqing, Klaus Arpe, Lennart Benglsson, 1997: Model Study on the Interannual Variability of Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Influence, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 14, 1-22.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0039-4
    [10] Ren Baohua, Huang Ronghui, 1999: Interannual Variability of the Convective Activities Associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon Obtained from TBB Variability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 77-90.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0005-4
    [11] LU Riyu, YE Hong, Jong-Ghap JHUN, 2011: Weakening of Interannual Variability in the Summer East Asian Upper-tropospheric Westerly Jet since the Mid-1990s, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1246-1258.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0222-5
    [12] Ya GAO, Huijun WANG, Dong CHEN, 2017: Interdecadal Variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation Variability and the Associated Sea Surface Temperatures on Interannual Scales, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 816-832.  doi: 10.1007/ s00376-017-6246-8
    [13] FU Yuanhai, LU Riyu, 2010: Simulated Change in the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 992-1002.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9124-1
    [14] Siyu Zhou, Bo Sun, Huijun Wang, Yi Zheng, Jiarui Cai, Huixin Li, Botao Zhou, 2024: Distinct interannual variability and physical mechanisms of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-3327-3
    [15] Wang Huijun, 2000: The Interannual Variability of East Asian Monsoon and Its Relationship with SST in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 17, 31-47.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-000-0041-6
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 May 2012
    Manuscript revised: 10 May 2012
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS

    • 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,
    • Manuscript received: 2012-05-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2012-05-10

    Abstract: The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER) hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)' retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850-hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain (20--60N, 90--150E), was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models (range: 0.39--0.51) for the period 1969--2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.

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