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Volume 29 Issue 4

Jul.  2012

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2012 >  29(4): 717-730

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Rainfall Forecasting in Queensland, Australia

  • 1.

    Centre for Plant and Water Science, Central Queensland University, Bruce Highway, Rockhampton Q. 4702, Australia;Centre for Plant and Water Science, Central Queensland University, Bruce Highway, Rockhampton Q. 4702, Australia


doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1259-9

  • In this study, the application of artificial intelligence to monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasting in Queensland, Australia, was assessed by inputting recognized climate indices, monthly historical rainfall data, and atmospheric temperatures into a prototype stand-alone, dynamic, recurrent, time-delay, artificial neural network. Outputs, as monthly rainfall forecasts 3 months in advance for the period 1993 to 2009, were compared with observed rainfall data using time-series plots, root mean squared error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficients. A comparison of RMSE values with forecasts generated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)-1.5 general circulation model (GCM) indicated that the prototype achieved a lower RMSE for 16 of the 17 sites compared. The application of artificial neural networks to rainfall forecasting was reviewed. The prototype design is considered preliminary, with potential for significant improvement such as inclusion of output from GCMs and experimentation with other input attributes.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 July 2012
    Manuscript revised: 10 July 2012
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Rainfall Forecasting in Queensland, Australia

    • 1. Centre for Plant and Water Science, Central Queensland University, Bruce Highway, Rockhampton Q. 4702, Australia;Centre for Plant and Water Science, Central Queensland University, Bruce Highway, Rockhampton Q. 4702, Australia
    • Manuscript received: 2012-07-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2012-07-10

    Abstract: In this study, the application of artificial intelligence to monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasting in Queensland, Australia, was assessed by inputting recognized climate indices, monthly historical rainfall data, and atmospheric temperatures into a prototype stand-alone, dynamic, recurrent, time-delay, artificial neural network. Outputs, as monthly rainfall forecasts 3 months in advance for the period 1993 to 2009, were compared with observed rainfall data using time-series plots, root mean squared error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficients. A comparison of RMSE values with forecasts generated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)-1.5 general circulation model (GCM) indicated that the prototype achieved a lower RMSE for 16 of the 17 sites compared. The application of artificial neural networks to rainfall forecasting was reviewed. The prototype design is considered preliminary, with potential for significant improvement such as inclusion of output from GCMs and experimentation with other input attributes.

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