Advanced Search
Article Contents

An updated estimation of radiative forcing due to CO2 and its effect on global surface temperature change

Fund Project:

doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2204-7

  • New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a high-resolution radiative transfer model. The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing (ARF) due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 1.95 Wm-2, which was 17% larger than that of the IPCCs 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005. A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration. Furthermore, according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change, possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008. The result was values of +2.2℃, +3.8℃, +5.1℃, +6.2℃, +7.1℃ and +8.0℃ respectively, based on a middle-level climate sensitivity parameter of 0.8 K (Wm-2)-1, Non-equilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios (pulsed and sustained emissions) as a comparison, according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) of CO2. Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed, and the effect on the Earth-atmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level.
    摘要: New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a high-resolution radiative transfer model. The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing (ARF) due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 1.95 W m-2, which was 17% larger than that of the IPCCs 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005. A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration. Furthermore, according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change, possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008. The result was values of +2.2℃, +3.8℃, +5.1℃, +6.2℃, +7.1℃ and +8.0℃ respectively, based on a middle-level climate sensitivity parameter of 0.8 K (W m-2)-1, Non-equilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios (pulsed and sustained emissions) as a comparison, according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) of CO2. Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed, and the effect on the Earth-atmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level.
  • Christidis, N., M. D. Hurley, S. Pinnock, K. P. Shine, and T. J. Wallington, 1997: Radiative forcing of climate change by CFC-11 and possible replacements. J. Geophys. Res., 102(D16), 19587–19609.
    Collins, W., D., and Coauthors, 2006: Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14317, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006713.
    Freckleton, R., S., E. J. Highwood, K. P. Shine, O. Wild, K. S. Law, and M. G. Sanderson, 1998: Greenhouse gas radiative forcing: Effects of averaging and inhomogeneities in trace gas distribution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 2099–2127.
    Garand, L., and Coauthors, 2001: Radiance and Jacobian intercomparison of radiative transfer models applied to HIRS and AMSU channels. J. Geophys. Res., 106(D20), 24017–24031.
    Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1997: Radiative forcing and climate response. J. Geophys. Res., 102(D6), 6831–6864.
    IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U. K., 879pp.
    IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U. K., 996pp.
    Jain, A., K., B. P. Briegleb, K. Minschwaner, and D. J. Wuebbles, 2000: Radiative forcings and global warming potentials of 39 greenhouse gases. J. Geophys. Res., 105(D16), 20773–20790.
    Shi, G. Y., 1981: An accurate calculation and representation of the infrared transmission function of the atmospheric constituents. Ph. D dissertation, Tohoku University of Japan, 191pp.
    Shi, G., Y., 1991: Radiative forcing and greenhouse effects due to atmospheric trace gases. Sci. China (B), 35(7), 776–784. (in Chinese)
    Shine, K., P., J. S. Fulestvedt, K, Hailemariam, and N. Stuber, 2005: Alternatives to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases. Climatic Change, 68(3), 281–302.
    Sihra, K., M. D. Hurley, K. P. Shine, and T. J. Wallington, 2001: Updated radiative forcing estimates of 65 halocarbons and nonmethane hydrocarbons. J. Geophys. Res., 106(D17), 20493–20505.
    Stuber, N., R. Sansen, and M. Ponater, 2001: Stratosh-pere adjusted radiative forcing calculation in a com-prehensive climate model. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 68, 125–135.
    WMO, 1986: Atmospheric ozone 1985: Assessment of our understanding of the processes controlling its present distribution and change. (Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 16), World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
    WMO, 2009: The state of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere using global observations through 2008. WMO Green House Gases Bulletin, No. 5, 4pp.
    Stuber, N., R. Sansen, and M. Ponater, 2001: Stratoshpere adjusted radiative forcing calculation in a comprehensive climate model. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 68, 125–135.
    Yu, X., L., and G. Y. Shi, 2001: Simplified calculation of radiative forcing with adjusted stratosphere temperature. Plateau Meteorology, 20(3), 271–274. (in Chinese)
    Zhang, H., and G. Y. Shi, 2000: A fast and efficient lLine-bBy-lLine calculation method for atmospheric absorption. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 24(1), 111–121. (in Chinese)
    Zhang H, T. Nakajima, G. Y. Shi, T. Suzuki, and R. Imasu, 2003: An optimal approach to overlapping bands with correlated k distribution method and its application to radiative calculations. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4641, doi: 10.1029/2002JD003358.
    Zhang, H., G. Y. Shi, and Y. Liu, 2005: A comparison between the two line-by-line integration algorithms. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 29(4), 581–594. (in Chinese)
    Zhang, H., G. Y. Shi, T. Nakajima, and T. Suzuki, 2006a: The effects of the choice of the k -interval number on radiative calculations. Journal of Quantitative Spectrum and Radiative Transfer, 98(1), 31–43.
    Zhang, H., T. Suzuki, T. Nakajima, G. Y. Shi, X. Y. Zhang, and Y. Liu, 2006b: Effects of band division on radiative calculations. Optical Engineering, 45(1), 016002–016010.
    Zhang, H., G. Y. Shi, and Y. Liu, 2008: The effects of line wing cutoff in LBL integration on radiation calculations. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 22(2), 248–255.
    Zhang, H., J. X. Wu, and P. Lu, 2011a: A study of the radiative forcing and global warming potentials of hydrofluorocarbons. Journal of Quantitative Spectrum and Radiative Transfer, 112(2), 220–229.
    Zhang, H., J. X. Wu, and Z. P. Shen, 2011b: Radiative forcing and global warming potential of perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. Sci. China ( D), 54, 764–772, doi: 10.1007/s11430-010-4155-0.
  • [1] SUN Zhian, WANG Xiaoyun, ZENG Xianning, 2006: Radiative Forcing of SO2 and NOx: A Case Study in Beijing, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 317-322.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0317-6
    [2] WANG Zhili, ZHANG Hua, SHEN Xueshun, 2011: Radiative Forcing and Climate Response Due to Black Carbon in Snow and Ice, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1336-1344.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0117-5
    [3] Hui XU, Jianping GUO, Jian LI, Lin LIU, Tianmeng CHEN, Xiaoran GUO, Yanmin LYU, Ding WANG, Yi HAN, Qi CHEN, Yong ZHANG, 2021: The Significant Role of Radiosonde-measured Cloud-base Height in the Estimation of Cloud Radiative Forcing, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 1552-1565.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-0431-5
    [4] ZHANG Hua, WANG Zhili, GUO Pinwen, WANG Zaizhi, 2009: A Modeling Study of the Effects of Direct Radiative Forcing Due to Carbonaceous Aerosol on the Climate in East Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 57-66.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0057-5
    [5] WANG Hong, SHI Guangyu, LI Shuyan, LI Wei, WANG Biao, HUANG Yanbin, 2006: The Impacts of Optical Properties on Radiative Forcing Due to Dust Aerosol, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 23, 431-441.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0431-5
    [6] WANG Yuesi, HU Yuqiong, JI Baoming, LIU Guangren, XUE Min, 2003: An Investigation on the Relationship Between Emission/Uptake of Greenhouse Gases and Environmental Factors in Semiarid Grassland, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 119-127.  doi: 10.1007/BF03342056
    [7] Hu Rongming, Serge Planton, Michel Déque, Pascal Marquet, Alain Braun, 2001: Why Is the Climate Forcing of Sulfate Aerosols So Uncertain?, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 1103-1120.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0026-0
    [8] Xiaoyan WU, Jinyuan XIN, Wenyu ZHANG, Chongshui GONG, Yining MA, Yongjing MA, Tianxue WEN, Zirui LIU, Shili TIAN, Yuesi WANG, Fangkun WU, 2020: Optical, Radiative and Chemical Characteristics of Aerosol in Changsha City, Central China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1310-1322.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0076-9
    [9] Boru MAI, Xuejiao DENG, Zhanqing LI, Jianjun LIU, Xiang'ao XIA, Huizheng CHE, Xia LIU, Fei LI, Yu ZOU, Maureen CRIBB, 2018: Aerosol Optical Properties and Radiative Impacts in the Pearl River Delta Region of China during the Dry Season, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 195-208.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7092-4
    [10] Dongxu YANG, Huifang ZHANG, Yi LIU, Baozhang CHEN, Zhaonan CAI, Daren LÜ, 2017: Monitoring Carbon Dioxide from Space: Retrieval Algorithm and Flux Inversion Based on GOSAT Data and Using CarbonTracker-China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 34, 965-976.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6221-4
    [11] Lingyun ZHANG, Yanfang SONG, Jialin SHI, Qun SHEN, Deng HU, Qiang GAO, Wei CHEN, Kien-Woh KOW, Chengheng PANG, Nannan SUN, Wei WEI, 2022: Frontiers of CO2 Capture and Utilization (CCU) towards Carbon Neutrality, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1252-1270.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1467-x
    [12] Bozhen LI, Gen ZHANG, Lingjun XIA, Ping KONG, Mingjin ZHAN, Rui SU, 2020: Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Atmospheric CO2 in East China Based on Data from Three Satellites, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1323-1337.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0123-6
    [13] YUE Xu, WANG Huijun, LIAO Hong, FAN Ke, 2010: Direct Climatic Effect of Dust Aerosol in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 230-242.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8170-z
    [14] LIAO Hong, CHANG Wenyuan, YANG Yang, 2015: Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants over China: A Review, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 115-139.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0013-x
    [15] Li Xingsheng, Zhou Jianqiang, Li Zhe, Fang Xiumei, He Zhuanshi, Farn Parungo, 1998: A Numerical Simulation of “5.5” Super-Duststorm in Northern China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 15, 63-73.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-998-0018-4
    [16] Jing Peng, Li Dan, xiba tang, 2023: Spatial variation in CO2 concentration improves simulated surface air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3249-5
    [17] Guo Yufu, Yu Yongqiang, Liu Xiying, Zhang Xuehong, 2001: Simulation of Climate Change Induced by CO2 Increasing for East Asia with IAP/LASG GOALS Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 53-66.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0004-6
    [18] Ning ZENG, 2003: Glacial-Interglacial Atmospheric CO2 Change--The Glacial Burial Hypothesis, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 20, 677-693.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915395
    [19] Binghao JIA, Xin LUO, Longhuan WANG, Xin LAI, 2023: Changes in Water Use Efficiency Caused by Climate Change, CO2 Fertilization, and Land Use Changes on the Tibetan Plateau, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 144-154.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-2172-5
    [20] Mei ZHAO, Andrew J. PITMAN, 2005: The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 58-68.  doi: 10.1007/BF02930870

Get Citation+

Export:  

Share Article

Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 20 August 2012
Manuscript revised: 08 October 2012
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

An updated estimation of radiative forcing due to CO2 and its effect on global surface temperature change

    Corresponding author: ZHANG Hua; 
  • 1. Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;
  • 2. Atmosphere Science Academy, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;
  • 3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing 100029
Fund Project:  This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB955703 and 2011CB403405) and the Public Meteorology Special Foundation of MOST (Grant No. GYHY200906020). The authors would like to give thanks to the editors of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences for their contributions to the English text.

Abstract: New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a high-resolution radiative transfer model. The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing (ARF) due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 1.95 Wm-2, which was 17% larger than that of the IPCCs 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005. A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration. Furthermore, according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change, possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008. The result was values of +2.2℃, +3.8℃, +5.1℃, +6.2℃, +7.1℃ and +8.0℃ respectively, based on a middle-level climate sensitivity parameter of 0.8 K (Wm-2)-1, Non-equilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios (pulsed and sustained emissions) as a comparison, according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) of CO2. Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed, and the effect on the Earth-atmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level.

摘要: New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a high-resolution radiative transfer model. The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing (ARF) due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 1.95 W m-2, which was 17% larger than that of the IPCCs 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005. A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration. Furthermore, according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change, possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008. The result was values of +2.2℃, +3.8℃, +5.1℃, +6.2℃, +7.1℃ and +8.0℃ respectively, based on a middle-level climate sensitivity parameter of 0.8 K (W m-2)-1, Non-equilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios (pulsed and sustained emissions) as a comparison, according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) of CO2. Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed, and the effect on the Earth-atmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level.

Reference

Catalog

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint