A Forecast Error Correction Method in Numerical Weather Prediction by Using Recent Multiple-time Evolution Data

XUE Hai-Le; SHEN Xue-Shun; CHOU Ji-Fan

doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2274-1

Volume 30 Issue 5

Jul. 2013

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 2013 > 30(5): 1249-1259

A Forecast Error Correction Method in Numerical Weather Prediction by Using Recent Multiple-time Evolution Data

1.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;
2.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;
3.
Center for Numerical Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Fund Project:

doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2274-1

Abstract
References
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Abstract:
The initial value error and the imperfect numerical model are usually considered as error sources of numerical weather prediction (NWP). By using past multi-time observations and model output, this study proposes a method to estimate imperfect numerical model error. This method can be inversely estimated through expressing the model error as a Lagrange interpolation polynomial, while the coefficients of polynomial are determined by past model performance. However, for practical application in the full NWP model, it is necessary to determine the following criteria: (1) the length of past data sufficient for estimation of the model errors, (2) a proper method of estimating the term model integration with the exact solution when solving the inverse problem, and (3) the extent to which this scheme is sensitive to the observational errors. In this study, such issues are resolved using a simple linear model, and an advection-diffusion model is applied to discuss the sensitivity of the method to an artificial error source. The results indicate that the forecast errors can be largely reduced using the proposed method if the proper length of past data is chosen. To address the three problems, it is determined that (1) a few data limited by the order of the corrector can be used, (2) trapezoidal approximation can be employed to estimate the term in this study; however, a more accurate method should be explored for an operational NWP model, and (3) the correction is sensitive to observational error.
- numerical weather prediction,
- past data,
- model error,
- inverse problem
摘要: The initial value error and the imperfect numerical model are usually considered as error sources of numerical weather prediction (NWP). By using past multi-time observations and model output, this study proposes a method to estimate imperfect numerical model error. This method can be inversely estimated through expressing the model error as a Lagrange interpolation polynomial, while the coefficients of polynomial are determined by past model performance. However, for practical application in the full NWP model, it is necessary to determine the following criteria: (1) the length of past data sufficient for estimation of the model errors, (2) a proper method of estimating the term model integration with the exact solution when solving the inverse problem, and (3) the extent to which this scheme is sensitive to the observational errors. In this study, such issues are resolved using a simple linear model, and an advection-diffusion model is applied to discuss the sensitivity of the method to an artificial error source. The results indicate that the forecast errors can be largely reduced using the proposed method if the proper length of past data is chosen. To address the three problems, it is determined that (1) a few data limited by the order of the corrector can be used, (2) trapezoidal approximation can be employed to estimate the term in this study; however, a more accurate method should be explored for an operational NWP model, and (3) the correction is sensitive to observational error.
- numerical weather prediction,
- past data,
- model error,
- inverse problem

References

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