A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction Research in China

WANG Huijun; FAN Ke; SUN Jianqi; LI Shuanglin; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; CHEN Lijuan; LANG Xianmei; LI Fang; ZHU Yali; CHEN Hong; ZHENG Fei

doi:10.1007/s00376-014-0016-7

Volume 32 Issue 2

Feb. 2015

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 2015 > 32(2): 149-168

A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction Research in China

1.
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;
2.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;
3.
Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;
4.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Fund Project:

doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0016-7

Abstract
References
Related papers
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Abstract:
The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.
- seasonal prediction,
- climate variability,
- predictability
摘要: The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.
- seasonal prediction,
- climate variability,
- predictability

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