Alessand ri, A., A. Borrelli, A. Navarra, A. Arribas, M. D\'equ\'e, P. Rogel, A. Weisheimer, 2011: Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 581- 607. |
Chen G. Y., 2000: Review of the methods for operational short-range climate prediction in China. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., Z1, 11- 20. (in Chinese) |
Coelho C. A. S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and D. B. Stephenson, 2004: Forecast calibration and combination: A simple bayesian approach for ENSO. J.Climate, 17, 1504- 1516. |
Dawid A. P., 1984: Statistical theory: The prequential approach. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser.A, 147, 278- 292. |
Ding Y.H., Coauthors, 2004: Advance in seasonal dynamical prediction operation in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 62, 598- 612. (in Chinese) |
Doblas-Reyes F.J., Coauthors, 2009: Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1538- 1559. |
Efron B., 1979: Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife. Ann. Stat., 7, 1- 26. |
Fan, K, H. J. Wang, Y. J. Choi, 2008: A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall. Chinese Sci. Bull., 53, 602- 609. |
Feng J. M., C. B. Fu, 2007: Inter-comparison of long-term simulations of temperature and precipitation over China by different regional climate models. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 805- 814. (in Chinese) |
Glahn B., K. Gilbert, R. Cosgrove, D. P. Ruth, and K. Sheets, 2009: The gridding of MOS. Wea.Forecasting, 24, 520- 529. |
Gneiting T., 2008: Editorial: Probabilistic forecasting. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. (A), 171, 319- 321. |
Gneiting T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld, and T. Goldman, 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1098- 1118. |
Gneiting T., F. Balabdaoui, and A. E. Raftery, 2007: Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. J. Roy. Stat. Soc.(B), 69, 243- 268. |
Hong J. L., Y. M. Liu, 2012: Contrasts of atmospheric circulation and associated tropical convection between Huaihe River valley and Yangtze River valley Mei-yu flooding. Adv. Atmos. Sci. ,29, 755-768, doi:10.1007/s00376-012-1217-6. |
Huang J. Y., 1993: Statistical and Dynamical Analysis and Forecast. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 1- 32. (in Chinese) |
Huang R., Y. F. Wu, 1989: The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,6, 21-32, doi: 10.1007/BF02656915. |
Huang R. H., C. Y. Li, and S. W. Wang, 2003: Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climate Disasters in China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 483 pp. (in Chinese) |
Huang R. H., W. Chen, B. L. Yang, and R. H. Zhang, 2004: Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,21, 407-424, doi: 10.1007/BF02915568. |
Huang R. H., J. L. Chen, L. Wang, and Z. D. Lin, 2012: Characteristics,processes and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29, 910-942, doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2015-x. |
Huth R., 1999: Statistical downscaling in central Europe: Evaluation of methods and potential predictors. Climate Res., 13, 91- 101. |
Jarque C. M., A. K. Bera, 1980: Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Econ. Lett., 6, 255- 259. |
Ke Z., 2007: Multi-model ensemble analysis in seasonal climate prediction. Ph. D. dissertation, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 173 pp. (in Chinese) |
Ke Z. J., P. J. Zhang, W. J. Dong, and L. Laurent, 2009: A new way to improve seasonal prediction by diagnosing and correcting the intermodel systematic errors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1898- 1907. |
Kumar A., M. P. Hoerling, 2003: The nature and causes for the delayed atmospheric response to El Ni\ no . J.Climate, 16, 1391- 1403. |
Lavers D., L. F. Luo, and E. F. Wood, 2009: A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36,L23711, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041365. |
Lau N. C., M. J. Nath, 2003: Atmosphere-ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J.Climate, 16, 3- 20. |
Lau N.C., A. Leetmaa, M. J. Nath, and H.L. Wang, 2005: Influences of ENSO-induced Indo-western Pacific SST anomalies on extratropical atmospheric variability during the boreal summer . J.Climate, 18, 2922- 2942. |
Lee P. M., 1997: Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction. Arnold,2nd ed., 344 pp. |
Li C. F., R. Y. Lu, and B. W. Dong, 2012: Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES. Climate Dyn., 39, 329- 346. |
Li F., 2011: Probabilistic seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over East China based on multi-model ensemble schemes. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 25, 283- 292. |
Li F., Q. C. Zeng, 2008: Statistical prediction of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on SST and sea ice concentration. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 86, 237- 243. |
Li F., Z. D. Lin, R. T. Zuo, and Q. C. Zeng, 2005: The methods for correcting the summer precipitation anomaly predicted extraseasonally over East Asian monsoon region based on EOF and SVD. Climatic Environ. Res., 10, 658- 668. (in Chinese) |
Li Y., R. Y. Lu, and B. W. Dong, 2007: The ENSO-Asian Monsoon Interaction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J.Climate, 20, 5164- 5177. |
Liao Q. S., Z. G. Zhao, 1992: Seasonal prediction schemes of summer rainfall over Eastern China. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., (S1), 1- 10. (in Chinese) |
Lu R. Y., C. F. Li, S. H. Yang, and B. W. Dong, 2012: The coupled model predictability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5, 319- 224. |
Luo L. F., E. F. Wood, and M. Pan, 2007: Bayesian merging of multiple climate model forecasts for seasonal hydrological predictions. J. Geophys. Res., 112,D10102, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007655. |
Luo L. F., W. Tang, Z. H. Lin, and E. F. Wood, 2013: Evaluation of summer temperature and precipitation predictions from NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast over China.Climate Dyn., 41, 2213- 2230. |
Ma Y., W. Chen, and L. Wang, 2011: A comparative study of the interannual variation of summer rainfall anomolies between the Huaihe Meiyu season and the Jiangnan Meiyu season and their climate background. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 69, 334- 343. |
Palmer, T. N., Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853- 872. |
Raftery A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1155- 1174. |
Raftery A. E., D. Madigan, and J. A. Hoeting, 1997: Bayesian model averaging for linear regression models. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 92, 179- 191. |
Sobel A. H., I. M. Held, and C. S. Bretherton, 2002: The ENSO signal in tropical tropospheric temperature. J.Climate, 15, 2702- 2706. |
Sun J. Q., H. P. Chen, 2012: A statistical downscaling scheme to improve global precipitation forecasting. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 117, 87- 102. |
Tao S. Y., L. T. Chen, 1987: A review of recent research on East Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorology, C. P. Chang, and T. N. Krishnamuri, Eds., Oxford University Press, London, 60- 92. |
Uppala, S. M., Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961- 3012. |
Wang B., Z. Fan, 1999: Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629- 638. |
Wang B., R. G. Wu, and X. H. Fu, 2000: Pacific-east Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J.Climate, 13, 1517- 1536. |
Wang B., R. G. Wu, and T. Li, 2003: Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impact on Asian-Australian monsoon variability. J.Climate, 16, 1195- 1211. |
Wang B, Coauthors, 2008: How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 21, 4449- 4463. |
Wang B, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dyn., 33, 93- 117. |
Wang H. J., K. Fan, 2009: A new scheme for improving the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation anomalies. Wea.Forecasting, 24, 548- 554. |
Wang Q. J., A. Schepen, and D. E. Robertson, 2012: Merging seasonal rainfall forecasts from multiple statistical models through Bayesian Model Averaging. J.Climate, 25, 5524- 5537. |
Wang S. W., 2001: Research Progress in Modern Climatology. China Meteorological Press, 453 pp. (in Chinese) |
WCRP, 2005: The World Climate Research Programme strategic framework 2005-2015. WMO/TD-No. 1291,46 pp. |
WCRP, 2008: WCRP position paper on seasonal prediction. ICPO Publication No. 127,25 pp. |
Weigel A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2009: Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multimodels? Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1460- 1479. |
Weisheimer, A., Coauthors, 2009: ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions——Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36,L21711, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040896. |
Whitaker J. S., A. F. Loughe, 1998: The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3292- 3302. |
Wilks D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction . Academic Press,467 pp. |
Wu R., B. Kirtman, 2005: Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air-sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability. Climate Dyn., 25, 155- 170. |
Wu Z. W., B. Wang, J. P. Li, and F. F. Jin, 2009: An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J. Geophys. Res., 114,D18120, doi: 10.1029/2009JD011733. |
Xiao Z. N., 2010: Advances of the short-range climate monitoring and prediction in China. Meteorological Monthly, 36, 21- 25. (in Chinese) |
Xie S. P., K. Hu, J. Hafner, H. Tokinaga, Y. Du, G. Huang, and T. Sampe, 2009: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Ni\ no. J.Climate, 22, 730- 747. |
Yatagai A., T. N. Krishnamurti, V. Kumar, A. K. Mishra, and A. Simon, 2014: Use of APHRODITE rain gauge-based precipitation and TRMM 3B43 products for improving Asian monsoon seasonal precipitation forecasts by the superensemble method. J.Climate, 27, 1062- 1069. |
Yuan X., E. F. Wood, J. K. Roundy, and M. Pan, 2013: CFSv2-based seasonal Hydroclimatic forecasts over the conterminous United States. J.Climate, 26, 4828- 4847. |
Yulaeva E., J. M. Wallace, 1994: The signature of ENSO in global temperature and precipitation fields derived from the microwave sounding unit. J.Climate, 7, 1719- 1736. |
Zeng, Q. C, C. G. Yuan, W. Q. Wang, R. H. Zhang, 1990: Experiments in numerical extraseasonal prediction of climate anomalies. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 14, 10- 25. (in Chinese) |
Zhu C. W., C. K. Park, W. S. Lee, and W. T. Yun, 2008: Statistical downscaling for multi-model ensemble prediction of summer monsoon rainfall in the Asia-Pacific region using geopotential height field. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,25, 867-884, doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0867-x. |