Projections of the Advance in the Start of the Growing Season during the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Simulations

It is well-known that global warming due to anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse effects advanced the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) across the globe during the 20th century. Projections of further changes in the SOS for the 21st century under certain emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) are useful for improving understanding of the consequences of global warming. In this study, we first evaluate a linear relationship between the SOS (defined using the normalized difference vegetation index) and the April temperature for most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere for 1982-2008. Based on this relationship and the ensemble projection of April temperature under RCPs from the latest state-of-the-art global coupled climate models, we show the possible changes in the SOS for most of the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century. By around 2040-59, the SOS will have advanced by -4.7 days under RCP2.6, -8.4 days under RCP4.5, and -10.1 days under RCP8.5, relative to 1985-2004. By 2080-99, it will have advanced by -4.3 days under RCP2.6, -11.3 days under RCP4.5, and -21.6 days under RCP8.5. The geographic pattern of SOS advance is considerably dependent on that of the temperature sensitivity of the SOS. The larger the temperature sensitivity, the larger the date-shift-rate of the SOS.