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Detecting the Origins of Moisture over Southeast China: Seasonal Variation and Heavy Rainfall


doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4197-5

  • To examine the ability of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to detect the origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China, trajectories of air particles released over Southeast China were traced backward during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 and three typical regional persistent heavy rainfall events. The HYSPLIT model provides more insightful information than water vapor flux. Analysis of the specific humidity along the trajectories revealed the origins of moisture and their contributions to the moisture supply in Southeast China. In the boreal summer half year, four key moisture transport paths from the eastern Indian Ocean, central Indian Ocean, South China Sea (SCS), and western North Pacific (WNP) contribute 10%, 20%, 31%, and 16% of the moisture to Southeast China, respectively. In the winter half year, the contributions of the paths from the WNP and North China double. Examination of heavy rainfall events showed that under tropical storm conditions, all moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically before reaching Southeast China. The invasion of cold air can trigger heavy rainfall in both the summer and winter half years but plays different roles: it does not contribute to the moisture supply but plays a key role in converging and uplifting the moisture in the summer half year, while it supplies a great amount of moisture in the winter half year as it absorbs abundant moisture in crossing the WNP.
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  • Bao M., 2007: The statistical analysis of the persistent heavy rain in the last 50 years over China and their backgrounds on the large scale circulation. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 779- 792. (in Chinese)
    Bao M., R. H. Huang, 2006: Characteristics of the interdecadal variations of heavy rain over China in last 40 years. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 1057- 1067. (in Chinese)10.1016/S1003-6326(06)60040-X5eb62961-6825-45ff-b4a7-6419543a4a33967f4beda6acdda001725356bfdb2595http%3A%2F%2Fen.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle_en%2FCJFDTOTAL-DQXK200606000.htmrefpaperuri:(f4bd9e6ae3fc3fee07855947176c7dec)http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200606000.htmSerious flooding disasters owing to heavy rain occur frequently in summer in China,especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Previous many studies about heavy rain in China have been conducted on the synoptic scale,but few on the climatology.Tao and Ding(1981) studied heavy rain in China with the data during 1953-1977 and found there are three zones in which heavy rain occurs frequently.Matsmoto and Takahashi(1999) studied heavy rain in East Asia and pointed out that a heavy rain zone exists from the Yangtze River basin in China to the southern parts of Japan.Recently,Zhai et al.(2005) researched the trend of heavy rain in China.The characteristics of the interdecadal variations of heavy rain in China are analyzed by using the daily precipitation data at 610 stations in China for the Last 40 years of 1961-2000.The results indicate that heavy rain mostly occurs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,South China,the central and eastern parts of Sichuan Province,the area between the Yellow River and the Huaihe River and the eastern part of North China in summer.The occurrence frequency of the summertime heavy rain has an obvious interdecadal variability,but there are some differences among these areas.More heavy rain occurred in the 1980s than 1970s followed by a step-up increase in the 1990s in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Whereas the decrease of heavy rain in the eastern part of North China has happened since the late 1970s.In the boreal spring and autumn,the interdecadal variations in the southern China are not obvious.Moreover,the analyzed results also show that there is a close relationship between heavy rain and flooding disasters in the monsoon region of eastern China,especially,heavy rain greatly contributed to flooding disasters in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys in the 1990s.Furthermore,the climatic background of interdecadal variability of the occurring frequency of the summer heavy rain is also discussed preliminarily.The interdecadal decrease of heavy rain in North China from the late 1970s may be related to the interdecadal variation of SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific,and the interdecadal increase of heavy rain to the south of the Yangtze River in the 1990s may be associated with the thermal convective activities over the eastern part of the tropical northwestern Pacific.The interdecadal variation of outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) over the eastern part of the tropical northwestern Pacific induces the interdecadal variation of the subtropical anticyclone at the lower layer over the northwestern Pacific,which has an impact on the interdecadal variation of heavy rain to the south of the Yangtze River in the 1990s.
    Brimelow J. C., G. W. Reuter, 2005: Transport of atmospheric moisture during three extreme rainfall events over the Mackenzie River Basin. J. Hydrometeor., 6, 423- 440.10.1175/JHM430.1a519585ae0a0fe482402c7526cbaa6d1http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F240687300_Transport_of_Atmospheric_Moisture_during_Three_Extreme_Rainfall_Events_over_the_Mackenzie_River_Basin%3Fev%3Dauth_pubhttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/240687300_Transport_of_Atmospheric_Moisture_during_Three_Extreme_Rainfall_Events_over_the_Mackenzie_River_Basin?ev=auth_pubAbstract Lagrangian trajectories were computed for three extreme summer rainfall events (with rainfall exceeding 100 mm) over the southern Mackenzie River basin to test the hypothesis that the low-level moisture feeding these rainstorms can be traced back to the Gulf of Mexico. The three-dimensional trajectories were computed using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT). For all three events, parcel trajectories were identified that originated near the Gulf of Mexico and terminated over the southern Mackenzie River basin. Specifically, the transport of low-level moisture was found to occur along either quasi-continuous or stepwise trajectories. The time required to complete the journey varied between 6 and 10 days. Closer examination of the data suggests that, for the three cases in question, the transport of modified Gulf of Mexico moisture to high latitudes was realized when the northward extension of the Great Plains low-level jet to the Dakotas occurred in synch with rapid cyclogenesis over Alberta, Canada. In this way, modified low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico arrived over the northern Great Plains at the same time as a strong southerly flow developed over the Dakotas and Saskatchewan, Canada, in advance of the deepening cutoff low over Alberta. This moist air was then transported northward over Saskatchewan and finally westward over the southern Mackenzie River basin, where strong ascent occurred.
    Dee, D. P., Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553- 597.10.1002/qj.828b8698c40-b145-4364-9b39-4e603f942b9f5e49541e9e977f77d4b4487298c60f84http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.828%2Fpdfrefpaperuri:(d4649bb38c91f047e85ec096d8587b99)http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.828/pdfABSTRACT ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Ding Y. H., 1994: Monsoons over China. Kluwer Academic Publisher,419 pp.e81d481da2ab4c2d26084d7515cbcfdfhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle%2FCJFDTotal-DQJZ199402013.htmhttp://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-DQJZ199402013.htmMonsoonsoverChina¥byDingYihui(ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences,Beigug,China)ATMOSPHERICSCIENCESLIBRARY,16Themonsoonover...
    Draxler R. R., G. D. Rolph, 2003: HYSPLIT-Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. Silver Spring [Available online at .]http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/hysplit4.html
    Eagleson P. S., 1970: Dynamic Hydrology.McGraw-Hill, Inc, 462 pp.427f14cab8a70c0c776688b3b8d623e0http%3A%2F%2Fagris.fao.org%2Fagris-search%2Fsearch.do%3FrecordID%3DUS201300468444%26sourceQuery%3D%26query%3D%26sortField%3D%26sortOrder%3D%26agrovocString%3D%26advQuery%3D%26centerString%3D%26enableField%3D/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28b36fb14e69f3daa6cc4016b988b6fa55%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fagris.fao.org%2Fagris-search%2Fsearch.do%3FrecordID%3DUS201300468444%26sourceQuery%3D%26query%3D%26sortField%3D%26sortOrder%3D%26agrovocString%3D%26advQuery%3D%26centerString%3D%26enableField%3D&ie=utf-8
    Fuhrmann C. M., C. E. Konrad II, 2013: A trajectory approach to analyzing the ingredients associated with heavy winter storms in central North Carolina. Wea.Forecasting, 28, 647- 667.10.1175/WAF-D-12-00079.1c53133e79136993d1ef39272f7adb528http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F275468957_A_Trajectory_Approach_to_Analyzing_the_Ingredients_Associated_with_Heavy_Winter_Storms_in_Central_North_Carolinahttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/275468957_A_Trajectory_Approach_to_Analyzing_the_Ingredients_Associated_with_Heavy_Winter_Storms_in_Central_North_CarolinaWinter storms, namely snowstorms and ice storms, are a major hazard and forecasting challenge across central North Carolina. This study employed a trajectory approach to analyze the ingredients (i.e., temperature, moisture, and lift) associated with heavy snowstorms and ice storms that occurred within the Raleigh, North Carolina, National Weather Service forecast region from 2000 to 2010. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) tool was used to calculate 72-h backward (i.e., upstream) air parcel trajectories from three critical vertical pressure levels at the time and location of heaviest precipitation for each storm. Analysis of composite trajectories revealed the source regions and meteorological properties of air parcels associated with heavy winter storms. Adiabatic and diabatic contributions to air parcel temperature and moisture content were also estimated along each trajectory to assess the physical processes connected with heavy winter precipitation in the region. Results indicate that diabatic warming and cooling contribute significantly to the vertical temperature profile during heavy winter storms and therefore dictate the resulting precipitation type. The main source of diabatic warming is fluxes of sensible and latent heat within the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the Gulf Stream. These fluxes contribute to a warming and moistening of air parcels associated with heavy ice storms. In contrast, heavy snowstorms are characterized by diabatic cooling in the lower troposphere above the marine atmospheric boundary layer. The most significant moisture source for heavy snowfall is the Caribbean Sea, while heavy ice storms entrain moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream region near the Carolina coast.
    Gaffney S., 2004: Probabilistic curve-aligned clustering and prediction with mixture models. PhD dissertation, Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, 281 pp.082dc31003a522b362c2eead76f7bb37http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F216300654_Probabilistic_Curve-Aligned_Clustering_and_Prediction_with_Mixture_Modelshttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/216300654_Probabilistic_Curve-Aligned_Clustering_and_Prediction_with_Mixture_Models
    Gustafsson M., D. Rayner, and D. L. Chen, 2010: Extreme rainfall events in southern Sweden: Where does the moisture come from? Tellus A, 62, 605- 616.10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00456.xff2a4363f773e747424d60b5494bf811http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1111%2Fj.1600-0870.2010.00456.x%2Fabstracthttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00456.x/abstractABSTRACT The atmospheric transport of moisture leading to extreme summer precipitation events in southern Sweden was investigated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. Surprisingly, we found that the trajectories crossed continental Europe and the Baltic Sea before arriving over Sweden; they did not arrive directly from the North Sea. Such transport pathways were not seen for a control sample of non-extreme rainfall events. We then used a new source region identification technique to investigate the hypothesis that Europe and the Baltic are important sources of the moisture that is rained out in the extreme events. Although the results varied between events, we found that this is indeed the case. Our results establish the atmospheric transport patterns that are apparently a pre-requisite for extreme rainfall events to occur in southern Sweden, and further suggest regional moisture availability may also play a key role.
    Jiang Z. H., Z. R. Liang, Z. Y. Liu, and Y. L. Zhu, 2011: A diagnostic study of water vapor transport and budget during heavy precipitation over the Huaihe River basin in 2007. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 361- 372. (in Chinese)10.3724/SP.J.1146.2006.01085ba7ca6ed28fb4b0b43a1c33f886714d4http%3A%2F%2Fen.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle_en%2FCJFDTOTAL-DQXK201102015.htmhttp://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201102015.htmBy using the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and the HYSPLITv4.9 mode,the variation features of the water vapor transportation and the contribution of vapor for major passages are analyzed during the heavy precipitation over the Huaihe River basin from 19 June to 26 July in 2007 which is divided into three stages.The results show that there are three major vapor inflow corridors to the Huaihe River basin.One of them is the southeast flow around the western Pacific subtropical high,another is northward vapor transport from cross-equatorial flow in the southern South China Sea,the last is from Somali jet via the Arabian Sea and the northern Bay of Bengal.During the first stage,the transportation of vapor originating from the western Pacific is most important and accounts for 69% of the total transportation.During the second and third stages,the cross-equatorial flow in the southern South China Sea is dominant and accounts for 52% and 57% of total moisture transportation,respectively.Somali jet via the Bay of Bengal transports moisture to the levels above 750 hPa,and the South China Sea and the subtropical high moisture transports to the levels under 850hPa.
    Li X. Z., W. Liang, and Z. P. Wen, 2010: Characteristics of the atmospheric water vapor and its relationship with rainfall in south China in northern autumn, winter and spring. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 26, 626- 632. (in Chinese)10.3788/HPLPB20102207.146229a52905410a78f35b4ff479197b7c50http%3A%2F%2Fen.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle_en%2FCJFDTOTAL-RDQX201005016.htmhttp://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX201005016.htmThe main characteristics of the atmospheric water vapor and its relationship with rainfall in South China in boreal autumn,winter,spring are investigated by using the observed precipitation data and the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1958 to 2005.The results show that the atmospheric water vapor is mainly concentrated on the layer below 500hPa,while the maximum shows up on the 850-700hPa layer.Climatically,the vapor over South China mainly comes from the Bay of Bengal and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean in autumn,from the southern westerly in winter,from the southern westerly and tropical western Pacific Ocean in spring.The anomalous water vapor transport in rainless and rainy years is not just out-of-phase,but actually more complex.The anticyclonic wind anomaly in the lower troposphere around the Philippines in the El Nino mature phase and the abnormal winter monsoon are one of the causes for the anomalous water vapor transport.
    Li X. Z., Z. P. Wen, W. Zhou, and D. X. Wang, 2012: Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with two decadal rainfall shifts over East China. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 90, 587- 602.10.2151/jmsj.2012-501707396e2f66dce13aa27d8a5dbe28acdhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F258783835_Atmospheric_Water_Vapor_Transport_Associated_with_Two_Decadal_Rainfall_Shifts_over_East_Chinahttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/258783835_Atmospheric_Water_Vapor_Transport_Associated_with_Two_Decadal_Rainfall_Shifts_over_East_ChinaThe atmospheric water vapor transport and moisture budget associated with two decadal summer rainfall shifts in 1978/79 and 1992/93 over East China were investigated using observational precipitation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 Years Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. After 1978/79, summer precipitation increased abruptly in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley (YH) but decreased in South China (SC) and North China (NC). Associated with this rainfall shift, southerly water vapor transport over East China was weakened; an anticyclonic moisture circulation anomaly along with decreasing moisture convergence existed in SC; abnormal water vapor from western SC converged in YH with that from western NC, then turned eastward, instead of northward to NC. After 1992/93, rainfall over SC increased dramatically. This is closely related to two abnormal anticyclonic moisture circulations to the south and the north when their northwesterly and southwesterly outflows converged over SC. During these two regime shifts, it was the variation of meridional water vapor flux, located mainly in the lower troposphere, which played an important role in the rainfall anomalies over YH, SC, and NC. The water vapor transport anomalies were mainly controlled by the disturbance wind field instead of the disturbance moisture field.
    Qin J., L. N. Pan, and L. Shi, 1991: Influences of the southern trough and strong cold air on the winter weather over Yunnan province. Meteorological Monthly, 17, 39- 43. (in Chinese)
    Stohl A., Coauthors, 2003: A backward modeling study of intercontinental pollution transport using aircraft measurements. J. Geophys. Res.,108(D12), ACH 8-1-ACH 8- 18.10.1029/2002JD00286274060f7bd89cc011166d54ed1b268656http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2002JD002862%2Fsuppinfohttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JD002862/suppinfo[1] In this paper we present simulations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to study the intercontinental transport of pollution from North America during an aircraft measurement campaign over Europe. The model was used for both the flight planning and a detailed source analysis after the campaign, which is described here with examples from two episodes. Forward calculations of emission tracers from North America, Europe, and Asia were made in order to understand the transport processes. Both episodes were preceded by stagnant conditions over North America, leading to the accumulation of pollutants in the North American boundary layer. Both anthropogenic sources and, to a lesser extent, forest fire emissions contributed to this pollution, which was then exported by warm conveyor belts to the middle and upper troposphere, where it was transported rapidly to Europe. Concentrations of many trace gases (CO, NO y , CO 2 , acetone, and several volatile organic compounds; O 3 in one case) and of ambient atmospheric ions measured aboard the research aircraft were clearly enhanced in the pollution plumes compared to the conditions outside the plumes. Backward simulations with the particle model were introduced as an indispensable tool for a more detailed analysis of the plume's source region. They make trajectory analyses (which, to date, were mainly used to interpret aircraft measurement data) obsolete. Using an emission inventory, we could decompose the tracer mixing ratios at the receptors (i.e., along the flight tracks) into contributions from every grid cell of the inventory. For both plumes we found that emission sources contributing to the tracer concentrations over Europe were distributed over large areas in North America. In one case, sources in California, Texas, and Florida contributed almost equally, and smaller contributions were also made by other sources located between the Yucatan Peninsula and Canada. In the other case, sources in eastern North America, including moderate contributions from forest fires, were most important. The plume's maximum was mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions from the New York area. To our knowledge, this is the first case reported where a pollution plume from a megacity was reliably detected over another continent.
    Tao S. Y., Y. H. Ding, 1981: Observational evidence of the influence of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau on the occurrence of heavy rain and severe convective storms in China. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 62, 23- 30.f44abb8a-d548-474e-b274-0ac4fc218581/s?wd=paperuri%3A%289e6d406adf4ccd08a3c3969f54ec774c%29&filter=sc_long_sign&sc_ks_para=q%3DObservational%20evidence%20of%20the%20influence%20of%20the%20Oinhiu-Xizang%20%28Tibet%29%20plateau%20on%20the%20occurrence%20of%20heavy%20rain%20and%20severe%20storms%20in&tn=SE_baiduxueshu_c1gjeupa&ie=utf-8
    Tao S.Y., Coauthors, 1980: The Torrential Rain in China. Science Press, Beijing, 225 pp. (in Chinese)
    Trenberth K. E., A. G. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,84(9), 1205-1216, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205.10.1175/BAMS-84-9-12051f29968439ef4d01f57ffc58aa9afa1ahttp%3A%2F%2Fci.nii.ac.jp%2Fnaid%2F80016217753http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/80016217753Abstract From a societal, weather, and climate perspective, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts, whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence, advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms, storms and so forth, exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation, conditional on when it falls, greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation, most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins, and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital. Hence, the intensity of precipitation depends on available moisture, especially for heavy events. As climate warms, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which is governed by the Clausius Clapeyron equation, is expected to rise much faster than the total precipitation amount, which is governed by the surface heat budget through evaporation. This implies that the main changes to be experienced are in the character of precipitation: increases in intensity must be offset by decreases in duration or frequency of events. The timing, duration, and intensity of precipitation can be systematically explored via the diurnal cycle, whose correct simulation in models remains an unsolved challenge of vital importance in global climate change. Typical problems include the premature initiation of convection, and precipitation events that are too light and too frequent. These challenges in observations, modeling, and understanding precipitation changes are being taken up in the NCAR ater Cycle Across Scales initiative, which will exploit the diurnal cycle as a test bed for a hierarchy of models to promote improvements in models. *The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation
    Xia R. D., S. X. Zhao, 2009: Diagnosis and modeling of meso-尾-scale systems of heavy rainfall in warm sector ahead of front in South China (middle part of Guangdong province) in June 2005. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 468- 488. (in Chinese)
    Ye C. Z., J. Y. Li, 2011: A numerical study of the characteristics of strong moisture transport as a result of the interaction of tropical storm Bilis with the South China Sea monsoon. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 69( 3), 496- 507. (in Chinese)10.1016/B978-0-444-53599-3.10005-87924d6e6-7f4f-4a38-88c5-6f9c571d6e9d5584201139bbd6fbb5ebfe3d0981ddbba51d199253http%3A%2F%2Fen.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle_en%2FCJFDTOTAL-QXXB201103010.htmhttp://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB201103010.htmThe landing of a strong tropical storm named Bilis(200604) created the favourable conditions for the formation of a long-lasting low-pressure system,whose interaction with the South China Sea(SCS) monsoon led to a peculiar rainfall in the southeastern part of Hunan Province.Based on various conventional observations,unconventional fine-grid observations,the NCEP reanalysis data,and the data from the meso-scale Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model(AREM),this study performed numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of the characteristics of moisture transport during the heavy torrential rainfall process.A sensitive experiment was designed to reveal the specific water vapor source and the flow channel for the torrential rainfall in the southeastern part of Hunan.The results indicate that the interaction of Storm Bilis(2006) with the SCS monsoon played a key role in the moisture transportation during the heavy rainfall event.East of the storm center,there maintained a band of strong southerlies that carried moist air from the SCS monsoon to the north of the storm,where the moisture was continuously transported to southeastern Hunan by the increased northeast winds.The intercrossing of these northern and southern moisture currents formed a deep moist layer and strong vapor convergence over the southeastern Human.It played the most important role in maintaining Storm Bilis for a long period and producing the heavy rainfall over the southeastern part of Human.
    Zhang H. D., Q. Kong, 2007: Diagnostic analysis of severe tropical storm Bilis heavy rain event. Meteorological Monthly, 33( 5), 42- 48. (in Chinese)10.1002/jrs.157078e9f626f6d618a39b5367396bcc3681http%3A%2F%2Fen.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle_en%2FCJFDTOTAL-QXXX200705005.htmhttp://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200705005.htmDue to the enormous disaster of the heavy rainfall in Hunan and Guangdong, etc., caused by the severe landing tropical storm Bilis, the process is investigated based on the dense observational data, the satellite data, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and products of MM5. The results show that the tropical depression moved tardily owning to the surrounding of the west Pacific subtropical high, north mainland high, Tibetan high and low latitudes high. The southeast stream from the southwest part of the subtropical high and the southwest monsoon stream transported the vapor to the depression continuously, which was propitious to the maintenance of its intensity. It is found that plenteous vapor, intense vertical convection and strong convergence of the low level stream have advantage for the heavy rainfall by analyzing MM5 numerical forecast products and physical factor field.
    Zhou H. G., 2008: 3D structure of the heavy rainfall caused by Bilis (0604) with Doppler radar data. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 32( 6), 1289- 1308. (in Chinese)
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Manuscript received: 24 March 2015
Manuscript revised: 25 August 2015
Manuscript accepted: 02 September 2015
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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Detecting the Origins of Moisture over Southeast China: Seasonal Variation and Heavy Rainfall

  • 1. Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
  • 2. Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
  • 3. Department of Geography and Resource Management, and Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Abstract: To examine the ability of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to detect the origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China, trajectories of air particles released over Southeast China were traced backward during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 and three typical regional persistent heavy rainfall events. The HYSPLIT model provides more insightful information than water vapor flux. Analysis of the specific humidity along the trajectories revealed the origins of moisture and their contributions to the moisture supply in Southeast China. In the boreal summer half year, four key moisture transport paths from the eastern Indian Ocean, central Indian Ocean, South China Sea (SCS), and western North Pacific (WNP) contribute 10%, 20%, 31%, and 16% of the moisture to Southeast China, respectively. In the winter half year, the contributions of the paths from the WNP and North China double. Examination of heavy rainfall events showed that under tropical storm conditions, all moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically before reaching Southeast China. The invasion of cold air can trigger heavy rainfall in both the summer and winter half years but plays different roles: it does not contribute to the moisture supply but plays a key role in converging and uplifting the moisture in the summer half year, while it supplies a great amount of moisture in the winter half year as it absorbs abundant moisture in crossing the WNP.

1. Introduction
  • Where does today's rain come from? This is a simple and important question, but no clear answer has yet been found. Generally, precipitation arises from two sources: local evaporation and externally advected moisture. Local evaporation is subject to the availability of surface water, with the magnitude of its variation much less than that of heavy rainfall. During a heavy rainfall event, rainfall-producing weather systems extend to about 3-5 times the radius of the sink region to absorb moisture (Trenberth et al., 2003). The water vapor transported by atmospheric circulation is one of the most important processes in the hydrological cycle.

    Southeast China experiences a typical monsoon climate and shows great seasonal variability in its moisture circulation. In the summer half year, the East Asian summer monsoon prevails: abundant moisture is imported by the southwest flow from the Indian Ocean, the southeast flow from the western North Pacific (WNP), and the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere (Li et al., 2012). In the winter half year, the northeast winter monsoon prevails: Southeast China tends to lack moisture, except for limited moisture transported by the midlatitude westerly and the southwesterly ahead of the India-Burma trough (Qin et al., 1991; Li et al., 2010). At the synoptic scale, a large supply of moisture makes Southeast China vulnerable to heavy rainstorms (Tao and Ding, 1981; Ding, 1994; Bao and Huang, 2006). Generally, three typical types of heavy rainstorms can be categorized based on their triggering systems. One is caused by a quasi-stationary front in the first rainy season (April to June) with a subtropical high anchoring to the south of Southeast China. The second is attributed to the persistence of a depression——typically, a landed tropical cyclone——in the second rainy season (July to September; Bao, 2007). The last type is triggered by a sudden outbreak of strong cold air activity conflicting with preexisting warm and humid air outside the rainy seasons.

    Previous studies on moisture sources have been based mainly on water vapor flux, which is qualitative. A more objective and quantitative investigation is therefore desirable to study the importance of each moisture source. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model (Draxler and Rolph, 2003), which traces air particles released at any height and location backward and calculates specific meteorological variables along the trajectories by solving the Lagrangian equation, is now widely applied in the study of moisture origins of extreme precipitation (e.g., Draxler and Rolph, 2003; Stohl et al., 2003). An analysis of the specific humidity along a backward trajectory allows an exploration of the role of air particles in transporting moisture and the possible moisture origin where evaporation occurs. By applying HYSPLIT, (Gustafsson et al., 2010) found that moisture crosses continental Europe and the Baltic Sea before arriving in southern Sweden during extreme summer precipitation. (Fuhrmann and Konrad II, 2013) found that snowfall and ice storms in central North Carolina entrain different moisture sources, with the former over the Caribbean Sea and the latter over the Gulf of Mexico and the Carolina coast. (Brimelow and Reuter, 2005) found that the low-level moisture feeding three extreme rainfall events over the southern Mackenzie River basin could be traced back to the Gulf of Mexico. Over China, (Jiang et al., 2011) pointed out that moisture sources vary during different phases of heavy rainfall over the Huaihe valley.

    In this study, the HYSPLIT model was applied to detect the possible pathways of the moisture responsible for precipitation over Southeast China. The data are described briefly in section 2. The seasonal variations in moisture origins and paths are examined in section 3, based on the results from a HYSPLIT run during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013. The moisture sources of three typical heavy rainfall events are studied in section 4 to investigate the similarities within each category and the dissimilarities among different categories. A summary and further discussion are provided in section 5.

2. Data and methodology
  • Gauge-based daily precipitation data during 1979-2012 from 756 stations over China, subjected to quality control procedures by the China Meteorological Administration (Bao, 2007), were used to count the regional durative heavy rainfall events over Southeast China. They were defined preliminarily, referring to the study of (Bao, 2007), as processes in a region in which 3-day precipitation exceeded 100 mm and daily precipitation exceeded 25 mm. The threshold of the region size was over 10 stations within a flexible rectangle containing 50 grids with a 1°× 1° horizontal resolution over Southeast China (21°-28°N, 105°-120°E).

    Gridded 3D wind field data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, with a temporal resolution of 6 hours, a horizontal resolution of 1° × 1°, and a vertical resolution of 26 levels from 1000 hPa to 125 hPa (Dee et al., 2011), were imported into the HYSPLIT model to trace the air particles responsible for the precipitation over Southeast China and to calculate specific meteorological variables along the trajectories, including altitude and specific humidity.

    In the seasonal run, air particles released over Southeast China (21°-28°N, 105°-120°E) at 1500 m with a horizontal resolution of 1° × 1° during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 were traced backward every 6 hours with a backward duration of 9 days, which is the approximate residence time of moisture in the atmosphere (Eagleson, 1970). The height of 1500 m was selected because the circulation at this level can well represent the lower-level circulation that transports most of the moisture. In the extreme precipitation run, on the other hand, the model setting was the same except the vertical resolution was set as 500 m from the surface to 8000 m. Only the first 100 trajectories that contributed the most moisture during heavy rainfall events are shown.

    Figure 1.  Test log-likelihood values for different numbers of backward trajectory clusters: (a) 1 April to 30 September 2012 run; (b) 1 October 2012 to 31 March 2013 run.

    Figure 2.  Six groups of trajectories clustered based on the result of HYSPLIT during the boreal summer half year (1 April to 30 September 2012) with air particles released over Southeast China (21$^\circ$-28$^\circ$N, 105$^\circ$-120$^\circ$E): (a) mean trajectory of each group, with the numbers indicating the group number, percentage of trajectory amount, and the contribution to the moisture supply of each group; (b) trajectories; and (c) monthly distribution of each group.

3. Seasonal variation of moisture sources detected by HYSPLIT
  • To observe moisture routines systematically, the trajectories were clustered separately for the boreal summer (1 April to 30 September 2012) and winter half year (1 October 2012 to 31 March 2013) by using the Curve Clustering Toolbox (Gaffney, 2004). In selecting the number of clusters (k), the in-sample log-likelihood value was calculated. This is defined as the log-probability of the observed data under the model, akin to a goodness-of-fit metric for probabilistic models (Gaffney, 2004). As is often the case, the log-likelihood values increased continuously with the number of clusters. The curves in Fig. 1 show diminishing returns in terms of improvement in fit beyond k=6 for the 1 April to 30 September 2012 run, and k=4 for the 1 October 2012 to 31 March 2013 run, suggesting that these were reasonable stopping points for the cluster analysis. Hence, for the following analysis, 6 and 4 were selected as the number of clusters for the summer and winter half-year trajectories, respectively. The variation in the altitude and specific humidity along the clustered trajectories was also examined. The specific humidity declines within Southeast China were accumulated to represent the contribution of each clustered trajectory to the moisture supply over Southeast China.

    Figure 3.  (a) Mean altitude and (b) specific humidity along the six clustered trajectories from 9 days prior ($-216$ h) to the moment the air particles reach the destination (0 h) during the boreal summer half year (1 April to 30 September 2012).

  • Six groups of moisture transport paths were identified for Southeast China during the summer half year (Fig. 2). Four key transport paths from the ocean (groups 2-5) contribute 16%, 31%, 20%, and 10% of the moisture to Southeast China, respectively. The most important one (group 3) originates from the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal (SCS-BOB). It dominates the moisture transport in April and May before the onset of the Indian summer monsoon (Fig. 2c). The second most important one (group 4) originates from the central Indian Ocean and crosses the Indo-China Peninsula to Southeast China. It plays a key role in transporting moisture during May to August when the Indian summer monsoon is active (Fig. 2c). The transport path from the western Indian Ocean (group 5) contributes only half the moisture that the path from the central Indian Ocean does, and appears mainly in June and July when the Indian summer monsoon is solidly built up. Another path (group 2) from the WNP contributes around 16% of the moisture supply; it dominates in August and September when Southeast China is under the control of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The other two routines (groups 1 and 6) come from the north at higher latitudes. One is from northern China and crosses the coastal region before reaching Southeast China, with additional trajectories from the immediate neighborhood; its contribution (20%) is equal to that from the central Indian Ocean. The other routine originates from continental Asia and reaches Southeast China from the northwest. It makes a limited contribution (3%), as the moisture content along it is low. These two transport paths appear mainly in the early and later stages of the summer half year, which can probably be attributed to cold air activity in the reversal of seasons. Hence, based on HYSPLIT, the contributions of different moisture transport paths can be illustrated qualitatively. In spring and summer, before the establishment of the Indian summer monsoon, most of the moisture originates from the adjacent oceans, the BOB and SCS, with cold air from the north and easterly flow advected by the WPSH playing additional roles. After the onset of the Indian summer monsoon, most of the moisture originates from the Indian Ocean and is transported by the strong southwesterly flow. In the reversal period between summer and fall, the roles of the routines from the north and the WNP enhance, while the moisture advected by the Indian summer monsoon diminishes.

    The composited altitude and specific humidity along each clustered trajectory were also examined (Fig. 3). Except for the routine from the inland area, the other routines from the coastal region and oceans lie at low levels with high humidity (10-15 g kg-1) before reaching Southeast China. They ascend with abruptly decreasing humidity during the last two days, implying that strong upward motion is associated with moisture condensation at the destination. The inland routine lies at a height of around 4000 m, with low humidity (3 g kg-1) initially, and then descends and increases its moisture content gradually during its southward transport to the coastal region where abundant moisture can be collected. It ascends with slightly decreasing humidity in the last few hours and contributes only a small amount of moisture to Southeast China.

  • Four groups of transport routines to Southeast China were identified in the winter half year (Fig. 4). Two are from the oceans, the WNP (group 2) and BOB (group 3); one is from the north, via the coastal region, before reaching Southeast China (group 1); and the last is also from the northwest but comes mainly via the inland area (group 4). In contrast to that in the summer half year, the proportion of moisture from the WNP (33%) is much larger than that from the Indian Ocean (15%), indicating that more moisture originates from the WNP than from the Indian Ocean. The moisture from the WNP dominates the moisture supply in late winter and early spring. Instead of arriving in Southeast China directly from the east in the summer half year, it rotates clockwise to the SCS, and then turns northward to Southeast China, which is closely related to the southward shift of the WPSH in the winter half year. The northern BOB contributes 22% of the trajectories but only 15% of the moisture, implying that abundant moisture from the northern BOB is transported across Southeast China without condensation, as the convergence-triggering mechanism might be absent in the winter half year. This is validated in Fig. 5, as both upward motion and specific humidity decline are weak. The path from North China also appears in the winter half year, with its trajectory amount and contribution nearly double (37%). It plays a key role in fall and early winter. Another routine, starting from southern Europe and associated with cold air activity, occupies only 15% of the moisture supply. Compared to that in the summer half year, despite the moisture content along this path being lower in the winter half year, its contribution increases dramatically, as the moisture tends to condense in the last few hours in the winter half year but not in the summer half year (Fig. 5b).

    Figure 4.  As in Fig. 2 but for the four groups during the boreal winter half year (1 October 2012 to 31 March 2013).

    Figure 5.  As in Fig. 3 but for the four groups during the boreal winter half year (1 October 2012 to 31 March 2013).

    The composited altitude and specific humidity along the trajectories in the winter half year (Fig. 5) show that the path from the WNP is located at a low level (around 1000 m), which has the highest moisture content. The path from North China descends to an even lower level and collects abundant moisture over the coastal region before reaching Southeast China. These two routines are uplifted at the destination, with humidity decreasing as moisture condenses. The path from the northwest originates at a high level with low moisture content; the humidity increases slightly before reaching the destination but does not decrease at the destination due to the lack of ascending motion, as does the routine from the northern BOB.

4. Moisture source of heavy rainfall events detected by HYSPLIT
  • Twenty-one regional durative heavy rainfall events were identified (Table 1). Most take place in June (38.1%) and July (19.0%), when the East Asian summer monsoon prevails. Some events occur in August (14.3%) and September (9.5%) and are closely related to the landfall of tropical storms. Some events appear in spring (14.3%) and late fall (4.8%), outside the rainy season. These might be triggered by vigorous cold air activity. The atmospheric circulations at different levels and the best track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisories were examined to subjectively classify three types of heavy rainfall events based on their dominant moisture circulations: (1) tropical storms; (2) interaction of the westward WPSH and cold air activity in the summer half year; and (3) strong cold air activity in the winter half year. In the following analysis, the trajectories responsible for the moisture supply during each type of heavy rainfall event are examined in detail to reveal the similarity in moisture origins and paths for each type and the differences between the types, and to compare the seasonal variation between heavy rainfall events.

  • Seven out of 21 heavy rainfall events were directly or indirectly coupled with the landing of tropical storms. A case during 15-17 July 2006, in which accumulated rainfall reached 500 mm, was examined. It was caused by tropical storm Bilis, which interacted intensively with the southwest summer monsoon after its landing; abundant moisture transported by the monsoon flow and strong convergence within the storm created favorable conditions for this disastrous heavy rainfall event (Zhang and Kong, 2007; Zhou, 2008; Ye and Li, 2011).

    Several prominent features appear in the daily vertically integrated water vapor flux (Fig. 6a). First, the southwesterly moisture transport by the summer monsoon from the western Indian Ocean is strong. Secondly, Bilis is a center of moisture convergence; strong moisture convergence is triggered by the tropical storm and dominates Southeast China as Bilis is sustained for several days after landfall, which is crucial to the persistence of precipitation. Thirdly, the enhanced WPSH shifts westward, to the east of the landed Bilis (figure not shown), preventing further transport of southwesterly moisture flow and impelling the gathering of moisture and unstable energy over Southeast China.

    Figure 6.  Averaged vertically integrated water vapor flux (vectors; units: kg m$^-1$ s$^-1$) and its divergence (color scale; 10$^-4$ kg m$^-2$ s$^-1$) during (a) 15-17 July 2006, (b) 20-22 June 2005, and (c) 7-9 March 1998.

    Figure 7.  The first 100 trajectories that lost the most humidity during the last 24 hours before reaching Southeast China in regional heavy rainfall cases: (a) 15-17 July 2006, (b) 20-22 June 2005, and (c) 7-9 March 1998. The upper panels show the first 100 trajectories, and the middle and lower panels show the variation in altitude and specific humidity along the trajectories, respectively, with the black lines showing the value averaged among the 100 trajectories.

    Figure 8.  The first 100 trajectories that lost the most humidity during the last 24 hours before reaching Southeast China in regional heavy rainfall cases of landfalling type I tropical storms, except during 15-17 July 2006: (a) 31 August to 2 September 1984; (b) 27-29 August 1985; (c) 20-22 August 1990; (d) 9-11 September 1990; and (e) 17-19 July 2000. The upper panels show the first 100 trajectories, and the middle and lower panels show the variation in altitude and specific humidity along the trajectories, respectively, with the black lines showing the average among the 100 trajectories.

    Figure 9.  Cluster analysis of (a, b) type II interaction of the westward WPSH and cold air activity in the summer half year and (c, d) type III strong cold air activity in the winter half year. In (a, c) trajectories with different colors represent different clusters, and the black line represents the composited trajectory of each cluster; in (c, d) trajectories with different colors represent clustering results in each heavy rainfall case.

    This rainfall was dominated by the conjunction of a typical storm, the southwest summer monsoon, and the WPSH. Whether all these contributed to the moisture supply remains obscure from the analysis of water vapor flux. To address this question, the air particles released over Southeast China during 15-17 July 2006 were traced backward; the first 100 trajectories that contributed the most moisture are shown in Fig. 7a. The trajectories tend to originate over the eastern BOB-WNP. Compared to the summer half-year, in which moisture trajectories are from the western Indian Ocean when the Indian summer monsoon is strong (Fig. 2), the sources of moisture accompanying Bilis tend to be more localized. The storm plays a crucial role in gathering moisture and uplifting it to the condensation level. All moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically when they get close to Southeast China. The average uplift height is above 7000 km (Fig. 7a), higher than that in the other types (Figs. 7b-c), which might be attributable to the strong upward motion accompanying the tropical cyclone. The specific humidity declines from around 18 to 4 g kg-1, indicating that most of the moisture is condensed into precipitation.

    The backward trajectories for the other tropical cyclone-induced heavy rainfall events are also shown in Fig. 8. Several features can be identified. First, all trajectories are rotated cyclonically when they get close to the tropical cyclone. Second, the WNP acts as an important source in the tropical storm-induced heavy rainfall events, which is reasonable, as all tropical storms affecting Southeast China originate in the WNP or SCS. This is also quite consistent with previous results in which most of the trajectories from the WNP appear in late summer, as in addition to the advection of the WPSH, tropical storms also play a role. Thirdly, the average uplift height of the air particles induced by tropical storms is high (around 7000 m), except for the case during 17-19 July 2000, which was induced by a weak and short-lived storm over the SCS.

  • In the summer half year, cold air activity weakens and retreats to the north; however, when it is strong enough, it can invade southward and interact with low-latitude systems. Prefrontal warm-sector heavy rainfall is among the most common events during the first rainy season in Southeast China (Tao et al., 1980). During 17-24 June 2005, a record-breaking heavy rainfall event hit Southeast China, with daily rainfall amounts on three consecutive days in Longmen County of 312.3, 355.0, and 310.6 mm (Xia and Zhao, 2009). It was a result of the combined effects of the midlevel East Asian trough, the lower-level shear line and quasi-stationary front, with the heavy rainfall occurring in the warm sector (Xia and Zhao, 2009). The WPSH enhanced and shifted southwestward and dominated the northern SCS. The conflict between the cold air guided by the midlevel trough and the humid air carried by the southwesterly flow resulted in this heavy rainfall event.

    The invasion of cold air acted as a trigger for heavy rainfall; however, without sufficient moisture supply, only light or even no rainfall could be stimulated. In this case, abundant moisture diverged over the western Indian Ocean was carried by the energetic Indian summer monsoon to Southeast China, where it conflicted with the steering circulation of the southwestward-shifted WPSH (Fig. 6b). A strong Indian summer monsoon is crucial to moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to Southeast China, while the WPSH not only acts as a dynamic barrier blocking the downstream movement of the East Asia trough and thus the persistent cold air invasion (figure not shown), but also redirects the southwesterly moisture transport to Southeast China.

    The output of HYSPLIT (Fig. 7b) provides even more accurate information on the origins and paths of the moisture. Besides the western Indian Ocean, the central Indian Ocean is an important moisture source, as cross-equatorial flow is strong over that area several days before (figure not shown). According to previous results, these are two crucial moisture origins responsible for the moisture supply to Southeast China in summer when the Indian summer monsoon is active. The moisture from the WNP does not play a role in this process, implying that the WPSH helps only to redirect moisture transport but not to supply moisture from the WNP.

    The composition of the moisture transport paths was also studied, based on the clustering result of trajectories for all regional heavy rainfall events (Fig. 9a) and each regional heavy rainfall event (Fig. 9b) of this type. It is shown that the western Indian Ocean, central Indian Ocean, and SCS are three key moisture sources; they were also crucial in the seasonal study. However, it is interesting to note that, in contrast to the seasonal characteristics, the importance of the western Indian Ocean is nearly twice that of the SCS. This implies that the cooperation of a strong Indian summer monsoon is essential to the heavy rainfall induced by the westward WPSH and cold air activity in the summer half year, as it transports a great deal of moisture to the rainfall region. In addition, though cold air activity plays a crucial role in triggering heavy rainfall (Xia and Zhao, 2009), it does not play a key role in supplying moisture in all regional heavy rainfall events of this type, which seems to conflict with the previous conclusion that 20% of the moisture in the summer half year is from the north and the immediate neighborhood. This might be because only the first 100 trajectories that lost the most humidity, rather than all trajectories, are shown in the analysis of regional heavy rainfall events (Fig. 9), in comparison with the seasonal analysis (Fig. 2). The routine from the north and immediate neighborhood might make a weak contribution, if any, in transporting moisture during the heavy rainfall events in the summer half year, which might be one distinguishing feature of the moisture sources between heavy rainfall events and the seasonal analysis.

  • In spring/fall, when the northerly flow is relatively weak, humid and warm air may affect South China. When there is a sudden outbreak of strong cold air activity, the conflict between the southward-invading cold air and the preexisting warm air may trigger heavy rainfall. It was found that all heavy rainfall events outside summer (6-8 April 1981, 25-28 March 1992, 7-9 March 1998, and 31 October to 2 November 2008) occurred in a similar atmospheric pattern; that is, with a westerly flow, an anticyclone advecting abundant moisture into Southeast China from the east, and northerly flow from inland bringing cold air. The heavy rainfall during 7-9 March 1998 was the strongest rainfall in early March since 1979, inducing great damage and loss.

    In the analysis of water vapor flux, the moisture converged over Southeast China during this heavy rainfall was supplied by two branches. One was transported by the westerly flow at the same latitude and the other was transported by an anticyclonic circulation over the SCS-WNP from the tropical WNP (Fig. 6c). Cold air activity did not play a direct role in moisture transport, as the northern boundary of Southeast China was dominated by weak southerly rather than northerly transport. Instead, it played an indirect role in the formation of the anticyclone over the SCS-WNP. In the early stage, the routine of the cold air lay mainly to the east over the ocean, where it turned clockwise toward Southeast China and converged with the westerly flow (Figure not shown). The cold air may have absorbed abundant moisture over the ocean. When the heavy rainfall took place, the other new branch of cold air from the north conflicted with the warm and humid air from the south, resulting in a strong uplifting of moisture.

    The backward trajectories responsible for this heavy rainfall verify the role played by cold air activity in the moisture supply (Fig. 7c). The crucial trajectories originated from Northeast China and transported clockwise over the SCS-WNP before reaching Southeast China, where abundant moisture was absorbed. This was also proposed as the most important path for moisture transport in the winter half year in the last section. The westerly flow only played an additional role in this process.

    A composite analysis of the moisture transport routines in the winter half year is shown in Figs. 9c and d. For the heavy rainfall events in the winter half year, most of the moisture originates from the WNP. Three paths from the WNP together contribute 71% of the moisture. They differ slightly in origins and paths, which might be determined by the location of the anticyclone over the WNP. The paths from the north and west contribute only 15% and 14% of the moisture, respectively. Despite other studies having suggested that westerly transport or moisture transport from the BOB are important sources of moisture in Southeast China, the present results using HYSPLIT show that the WNP is the key origin of moisture.

5. Conclusion and discussion
  • The origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China were investigated using the HYSPLIT model with trajectories of air particles released over Southeast China during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 and three typical regional durative heavy rainfall events. Compared to water vapor flux, the results from HYSPLIT are much more quantitative and objective. In the boreal summer half year, four key transport paths from the oceans——the WNP, SCS-BOB, central Indian Ocean, and western Indian Ocean——contribute 16%, 31%, 20%, and 10% of the moisture to Southeast China, respectively. They experience strong upward motion and condensation within Southeast China. Coupled with the evolution of monsoon activity, the importance of each path shows great intraseasonal variation. In contrast to the summer half year, more moisture originates from the WNP (33%) than from the Indian Ocean (15%) in the winter half year. The path from North China plays a key role in winter moisture supply, with its trajectory amount and contribution nearly doubling (37%) those in the summer half year.

    During tropical storm-induced heavy rainfall, all moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically by the peripheral circulation of the storm before it reaches Southeast China. The invasion of cold air can cause heavy rainfall in both the summer and winter half year, but it plays different roles in the moisture supply. In the winter half year, the routine of the cold air invasion responsible for heavy rainfall is located farther eastward than that in the summer half year. The cold air crosses the WNP, absorbs abundant moisture, and then transports it into Southeast China, thereby acting as a crucial moisture transport path. In contrast, in the summer half year, the cold air invasion over the inland area can stimulate heavy rainfall only if abundant moisture supplied by other systems is superimposed. The invasion of cold air plays a key role in converging and uplifting the moisture but not in transporting the moisture. Instead, the cooperation of a strong Indian summer monsoon is essential to the moisture supply during heavy rainfall events induced by the westward WPSH and cold air activity in the summer half year.

    In this study, only the period during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 was selected to analyze the seasonal variation in moisture transport, which is obviously not a long enough time span. Further analysis over longer periods would be of value. However, the period during April 2012 to March 2013 is still highly representative, as the dry/wet conditions over Southeast China during this period were normal. The percentages of the abnormal precipitation in the summer half year, winter half year, and the whole year are 2%, 14%, and 5%, respectively; all are below 0.6σ (standard deviation). Though the HYSPLIT model is superior to water vapor flux in detecting moisture origins, caution is still advised, as it is the air particles rather than the moisture itself that are traced in the HYSPLIT model. The moisture within the air particles may experience condensation or evaporation on its path; however, the long-standing humidity content over the oceans makes it hard to tell where the moisture condenses or evaporates by analyzing the variation of the specific humidity along the trajectories. Nonetheless, the HYSPLIT model was still a useful tool for detecting the moisture transport routines in this study.

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