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Projected Shifts in Köppen Climate Zones over China and Their Temporal Evolution in CMIP5 Multi-Model Simulations


doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5077-8

  • Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1° scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions (7%-8% of China's land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest (Dwb) by deciduous forest (Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type (ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winter-dry climate (Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010-30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040-50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China's land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions in future decades.
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  • Almorox J., V. H. Quej, and P. Marti, 2015: Global performance ranking of temperature-based approaches for evapotranspiration estimation considering Köppen climate classes. J. Hydrol., 528, 514- 522.
    Baker B., H. Diaz, W. Hargrove, and F. Hoffman, 2010: Use of the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification to evaluate climatic refugia in statistically derived ecoregions for the People's Republic of China. Climatic Change, 98, 113- 131.10.1007/s10584-009-9622-21eed3899-dddd-4e13-a4a2-1171660c0754slarticleid_20063814f91a6a1887caa325dcf73f33b2db14http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fresolve%2Freference%2FXREF%3Fid%3D10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9622-2refpaperuri:(69a26da470ed1caea01b0ef00dc1e558)http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/s10584-009-9622-2<a name="Abs1"></a>Changes in climate as projected by state-of-the-art climate models are likely to result in novel combinations of climate and topo-edaphic factors that will have substantial impacts on the distribution and persistence of natural vegetation and animal species. We have used multivariate techniques to quantify some of these changes; the method employed was the Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC) algorithm. We used the MSTC to quantitatively define ecoregions for the People&#8217;s Republic of China for historical and projected future climates. Using the K?ppen&#8211;Trewartha classification system we were able to quantify some of the temperature and precipitation relationships of the ecoregions. We then tested the hypothesis that impacts to environments will be lower for ecoregions that retain their approximate geographic locations. Our results showed that climate in 2050, as projected from anthropogenic forcings using the Hadley Centre HadCM3 general circulation model, were sufficient to create novel environmental conditions even where ecoregions remained spatially stable; cluster number was found to be of paramount importance in detecting novelty. Continental-scale analyses are generally able to locate potentially static ecoregions but they may be insufficient to define the position of those reserves at a grid cell-by-grid cell basis.
    Chan D., Q. G. Wu, 2015: Significant anthropogenic-induced changes of climate classes since 1950. Sci. Rep., 5, 13487.10.1038/srep13487c1cf899092698a3e14827e4cb7bbac48http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC4551970%2Fhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4551970/ABSTRACT Anthropogenic forcings have contributed to global and regional warming in the last few decades and likely affected terrestrial precipitation. Here we examine changes in major K&ouml;ppen climate classes from gridded observed data and their uncertainties due to internal climate variability using control simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). About 5.7% of the global total land area has shifted toward warmer and drier climate types from 1950&ndash;2010, and significant changes include expansion of arid and high-latitude continental climate zones, shrinkage in polar and midlatitude continental climates, poleward shifts in temperate, continental and polar climates, and increasing average elevation of tropical and polar climates. Using CMIP5 multi-model averaged historical simulations forced by observed anthropogenic and natural, or natural only, forcing components, we find that these changes of climate types since 1950 cannot be explained as natural variations but are driven by anthropogenic factors.
    Cho M.-H., K. -O. Boo, G. M. Martin, J. Lee, and G.-H. Lim, 2015: The impact of land cover generated by a dynamic vegetation model on climate over East Asia in present and possible future climate. Earth Sys. Dynam., 6( 1), 147- 160.10.5194/esdd-5-1319-20141f88f7a7b79eec9f4ede396efc78f874http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F275220407_The_impact_of_land_cover_generated_by_a_dynamic_vegetation_model_on_climate_over_east_Asia_in_present_and_possible_future_climatehttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/275220407_The_impact_of_land_cover_generated_by_a_dynamic_vegetation_model_on_climate_over_east_Asia_in_present_and_possible_future_climateThis study investigates the impacts of land cover change, as simulated by a dynamic vegetation model, on the summertime climatology over Asia. The climate model used in this study has systematic biases of underestimated rainfall around Korea and overestimation over the South China Sea. When coupled to a dynamic vegetation model, the resulting change in land cover is accompanied by an additional direct radiative effect over dust-producing regions. The direct radiative effect of the additional dust contributes to increasing the rainfall biases, while the land surface physical processes are related to local temperature biases such as warm biases over North China. In time-slice runs for future climate, as the dust loading changes, anomalous anticyclonic flows are simulated over South China Sea, resulting in reduced rainfall over the South China Sea and more rainfall toward around Korea and South China. In contrast with the rainfall changes, the influence of land cover change and the associated dust radiative effects are very small for future projection of temperature, which is dominated by atmospheric COincrease. The results in this study suggest that the land cover simulated by a dynamic vegetation model can affect, and be affected by, model systematic biases on regional scales over dust emission source regions such as Asia. In particular, analysis of the radiative effects of dust changes associated with land cover change is important in order to understand future changes of regional precipitation in global warming.
    De Castro, M., C. Gallardo, K. Jylha, H. Tuomenvirta, 2007: The use of a climate-type classification for assessing climate change effects in Europe from an ensemble of nine regional climate models. Climatic Change, 81, 329- 341.10.1007/s10584-006-9224-177b15dba-8b9b-4279-85a7-03428d49f258slarticleid_17203049c35808861b1983f0d3f349886701e3http%3A%2F%2Fwww.springerlink.com%2Findex%2FT44523273087Q071.pdfrefpaperuri:(3670f77af89a2da363636f3bb62ccc82)http://www.springerlink.com/index/T44523273087Q071.pdf<a name="Abs1"></a>Making use of the K?ppen&#8211;Trewartha (K&#8211;T) climate classification, we have found that a set of nine high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) are fairly capable of reproducing the current climate in Europe. The percentage of grid-point to grid-point coincidences between climate subtypes based on the control simulations and those of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology varied between 73 and 82%. The best agreement with the CRU climatology corresponds to the RCM &#8220;ensemble mean&#8221;. The K&#8211;T classification was then used to elucidate scenarios of climate change for 2071&#8211;2100 under the SRES A2 emission scenario. The percentage of land grid-points with unchanged K&#8211;T subtypes ranged from 41 to 49%, while those with a shift from the current climate subtypes towards warmer or drier ones ranged from 51 to 59%. As a first approximation, one may assume that in regions with a shift of two or more climate subtypes, ecosystems might be at risk. Excluding northern Scandinavia, such regions were projected to cover about 12% of the European land area.
    Engelbrecht C. J., F. A. Engelbrecht, 2015: Shifts in Köppen-Geiger climate zones over southern Africa in relation to key global temperature goals. Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1354-1.
    Feng S., Q. Hu, W. Huang, C.-H. Ho, R. P. Li, and Z. H. Tang, 2014: Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Global Planet.Change, 112, 41- 52.10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.11.00273a7c2d335e15b1abcc5ca1cce34cd82http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0921818113002403http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113002403ABSTRACT
    Fraedrich K., F.-W. Gerstengarbe, and P. C. Werner, 2001: Climate shifts during the last century. Climatic Change, 50, 405- 417.10.1023/A:10106994288638a28a579d5373a831b4b34dec2a65aefhttp%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1023%2FA%3A1010699428863http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1010699428863Fluctuations of the land surface areas covered by Koeppen climates are analysed for the 1901 to 1995 period using trends and outliers as indicators of climate shift. Only the extreme climate zones of the global Tropics and of the Tundra (with the highly correlated northern hemisphere temperature) realise statistically significant shifts and outliers. There are nosignificant trends and outliers in the fluctuating ocean-atmosphere patterns (Pacific Decadal and North Atlantic Oscillations) and the highly correlated intermediate climate zones (dry, subtropical and boreal) of the surrounding continents.
    Gnanadesikan A., R. J. Stouffer, 2006: Diagnosing atmosphere-ocean general circulation model errors relevant to the terrestrial biosphere using the Köppen climate classification. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22701.
    Hou X. Y., S. Sun, J. Zhang, M. He, Y. Wang, D. Kong, and S. Wang, 1982: Vegetation Map of the People's Republic of China. China Cartography Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)5a26a6232eff3823a392cb74c01280fbhttp%3A%2F%2Flib.ugent.be%2Fen%2Fcatalog%2Frug01%3A001665769http://lib.ugent.be/en/catalog/rug01:001665769
    Köppen, W., 1936: Das geographisca system der klimate. Handbuch der Klimatologie, W. Köppen, G. Geiger, Eds.Borntraeger, 1- 44.10.1126/science.34.866.155519fae98cfab0cf62e5e8cb2d3952f7ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fnature%2Fjournal%2Fv79%2Fn2048%2Fpdf%2F079363a0.pdfhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v79/n2048/pdf/079363a0.pdfTHIS is the first part of vol. ii. of the third edition of Prof. Hann's “Handbuch der Klimatologie.” Vol. i. dealt with general principles, and we now come to the detailed consideration of the climates of different parts of the world. The volume before us concerns itself with the tropics, the consideration of temperate and polar regions being reserved for subsequent volumes. The author has not confined himself strictly to the area lying between 2305° north and south of the Equator. When desirable he has gone outside this region. Roughly speaking, he discusses that portion of the earth's surface which has an annual mean temperature of 20° C. or above. The isotherm of this value may be taken as marking the polar limits of the trade winds, when definable, and of the palm tree.
    Legates D. R., C. J. Willmott, 1990a: Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 41, 11- 21.10.1007/BF00866198947dcc02-3836-49a7-952c-d3824871e72b3bd9b287e1e7c055c432445a90e3227bhttp%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2FBF00866198refpaperuri:(13ec70797f1725af0cfcc5599ed4600a)http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/BF00866198Using terrestrial observations of shelter-height air temperature and shipboard measurements, a global climatology of mean monthly surface air temperature has been compiled. Data were obtained from ten sources, screened for coding errors, and redundant station records were removed. The combined data base consists of 17 986 independent terrestrial station records and 6 955 oceanic grid-point records. These data were then interpolated to a 0.5 of latitude by 0.5 of longitude lattice using a spherically-based interpolation algorithm. Spatial distributions of the annual mean and intra-annual variance are presented along with a harmonic decomposition of the intra-annual variance.
    Legates D. R., C. J. Willmott, 1990b: Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 10, 111- 127.10.1002/joc.33701002020da23a9e-4ef4-4226-8f6e-6b300c5e961588d31a95602b5e5b85c6cc24e43fd42dhttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fjoc.3370100202%2Ffullrefpaperuri:(70ae89c462aaf37d16a7f834fed8818f)http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3370100202/fullAbstract Using traditional land-based gauge measurements and shipboard estimates, a global climatology of mean monthly precipitation has been developed. Data were obtained from ten existing sources, screened for coding errors, and redundant station records were removed. The edited data base contains 24,635 spatially independent terrestrial station records and 2223 oceanic grid-point records. A procedure for correcting gauge-induced biases is presented and used to remove systematic errors caused by wind, wetting on the interior walls of the gauge, and evaporation from the gauge. These ‘corrected’ monthly precipitation observations were then interpolated to a 0·5° of latitude by 0·5° of longitude grid using a spherically based interpolation procedure. Bias-corrected spatial distributions of the annual mean and intraannual variance are presented along with a harmonic decomposition of the intra-annual variance.
    Leng W. F., H. S. He, R. C. Bu, L. M. Dai, Y. M. Hu, and X. G. Wang, 2008: Predicting the distributions of suitable habitat for three larch species under climate warming in Northeastern China. For. Eco. Manag., 254, 420- 428.10.1016/j.foreco.2007.08.031188ff77f4ee4afc23878695bd1e2c36chttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0378112707006433http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112707006433Under the current climate regime, in general, the prediction accuracy for the training dataset is much higher than that of testing dataset. The prediction accuracy for Dahurian larch is much higher than that of other two larch species. Under three climate warming scenarios, the southeast boundary of suitable habitat of Dahurian Larch was modeled to retreat northwestward by 9002km (CGCM3-B1) via 10502km (CGCM3-A1B) to 14002km (CGCM3-A2) scenario. The potential area would thus decrease from 25.502million02ha currently to 13, 9.5 and 7.202million02ha, correspondingly. The northwest boundary of suitable habitat for Korean larch was modeled move northwestward by 10002km (CGCM3-B1) via 12502km (CGCM3-A1B) to 34002km (CGCM3-A2), while the southern boundary may move northeastward 12502km via 170–20002km, respectively. The modeled potential area thus decreased from 14.602million02ha to 14.5, 12.6 and 9.702million02ha, correspondingly. The suitable habitat of Prince Rupprecht Larch was modeled to disappear under each of the three scenarios.
    Ma J., Y. M. Hu, R. C. Bu, Y. Chang, H. W. Deng, and Q. Qin, 2014: Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China. PLoS one, 2014, 9( 4), e96157.10.1371/journal.pone.009615724763409d9c897b11155646b4b9516087f5234abhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpubmed%2F24763409http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24763409The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.
    Mahlstein I., J. S. Daniel, and S. Solomon, 2013: Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature. Nature Climate Change, 3, 739- 743.10.1038/nclimate18761213740b51dfdc9d1c484616b015e006http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fnclimate%2Fjournal%2Fv3%2Fn8%2Ffull%2Fnclimate1876.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n8/full/nclimate1876.htmlHuman-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of K0109ppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to K0109ppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.
    Ni J., 2011: Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: Key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds. Reg. Environ.Change, 11, 49- 64.10.1007/s10113-010-0170-0f33339badebd757bff80191c28ebc62ahttp%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs10113-010-0170-0http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-010-0170-0China is a key vulnerable region of climate change in the world. Climate warming and general increase in precipitation with strong temporal and spatial variations have happened in China during the past century. Such changes in climate associated with the human disturbances have influenced natural ecosystems of China, leading to the advanced plant phenology in spring, lengthened growing season of vegetation, modified composition and geographical pattern of vegetation, especially in ecotone and tree-lines, and the increases in vegetation cover, vegetation activity and net primary productivity. Increases in temperature, changes in precipitation regime and CO 2 concentration enrichment will happen in the future in China according to climate model simulations. The projected climate scenarios (associated with land use changes again) will significantly influence Chinese ecosystems, resulting in a northward shift of all forests, disappearance of boreal forest from northeastern China, new tropical forests and woodlands move into the tropics, an eastward shift of grasslands (expansion) and deserts (shrinkage), a reduction in alpine vegetation and an increase in net primary productivity of most vegetation types. Ecosystems in northern and western parts of China are more vulnerable to climate changes than those in eastern China, while ecosystems in the east are more vulnerable to land use changes other than climate changes. Such assessment could be helpful to address the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC Article 2).
    Ni J., M. T. Sykes, I. C. Prentice, and W. Cramer, 2000: Modelling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 9, 463- 479.10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00206.xa0abfdb3-9938-4614-90a9-3cde275373a2f3246439d6ac7a534593a25aada741eahttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1046%2Fj.1365-2699.2000.00206.x%2Ffullrefpaperuri:(79f122345aedfc03946e8f3c41838b0e)http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00206.x/fullAbstract Top of page Abstract Introduction METHODS RESULTS DISCUSSION Acknowledgments References 168We model the potential vegetation and annual net primary production (NPP) of China on a 10′ grid under the present climate using the processed-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. The simulated distribution of the vegetation was in general in good agreement with the potential natural vegetation based on a numerical comparison between the two maps using the ΔV statistic (ΔV=0.23). Predicted and measured NPP were also similar, especially in terms of biome-averages. 268A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model including sulphate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario for 2070–2099. Simulated vegetation maps from two different CO 2 scenarios (340 and 500 p.p.m.v.) were compared to the baseline biome map using ΔV. Climate change alone produced a large reduction in desert, alpine tundra and ice/polar desert, and a general pole-ward shift of the boreal, temperate deciduous, warm–temperate evergreen and tropical forest belts, a decline in boreal deciduous forest and the appearance of tropical deciduous forest. The inclusion of CO 2 physiological effects led to a marked decrease in moist savannas and desert, a general decrease for grasslands and steppe, and disappearance of xeric woodland/scrub. Temperate deciduous broadleaved forest, however, shifted north to occupy nearly half the area of previously temperate mixed forest. 368The impact of climate change and increasing CO 2 is not only on biogeography, but also on potential NPP. The NPP values for most of the biomes in the scenarios with CO 2 set at 340 p.p.m.v. and 500 p.p.m.v. are greater than those under the current climate, except for the temperate deciduous forest, temperate evergreen broadleaved forest, tropical rain forest, tropical seasonal forest, and xeric woodland/scrub biomes. Total vegetation and total carbon is simulated to increase significantly in the future climate scenario, both with and without the CO 2 direct physiological effect. 468Our results show that the global process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3 can be used successfully at a regional scale.
    Pan S., H. Q. Tian, C. Q. Lu, S. R. S. Dangal, and M. L. Liu, 2015: Net primary production of major plant functional types in China: Vegetation classification and ecosystem simulation. Acta Ecol. Sin., 35( 2), 28- 36.10.1016/j.chnaes.2015.03.00159941c3d62339b190cb0e33c6997f012http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS1872203215000050http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1872203215000050The characteristics and distribution of vegetation are essential information for understanding the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems across a large region. In this study, we developed the contemporary and potential vegetation maps of China with a spatial resolution of 165km65×65165km. The vegetation classification scheme includes 17 types of vegetation and 3 non-vegetated land cover types. For cropland, we further provide spatial information on three major cropping systems across China, i.e., single, double and triple cropping system. In addition, we further evaluate the accuracy of this classification against field survey. As a case study, we used this vegetation data set combined with other environmental factors (climate, atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition) to drive the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) for estimating terrestrial net primary production at both plant functional type and national levels. DLEM simulations indicate that net primary productivity (NPP) in China's terrestrial ecosystem has substantially increased by 51%, from 2.5065Pg C y 611 in the 1900s to 3.7965Pg C y 611 during the first decade of the 21st century. Among major plant functional types across China, cropland shows the largest NPP increase by nearly 3–4 fold during 1901–2010 primarily due to cropland expansion as well as increased nitrogen fertilizer use and irrigation. The NPP increase is estimated to be 48065 and 69265gC m 61265 y 611 for upland crops and rice fields, respectively. This vegetation distribution data set was originally developed for driving the Dynamic Land Ecosystem model (DLEM), but it can be used for other purposes such as driving hydrological and climate models.
    Peel M. C., B. L. Finlayson, and T. A. McMahon, 2007: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 439- 473.
    Peterson T. C., R. Vose, R. Schmoyer, and V. Razuva\"ev, 1998: Global historical climatology network (GHCN) quality control of monthly temperature data. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 1169- 1179.10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199809)18:11<1169::AID-JOC309>3.0.CO;2-U49c9207a9cc18bdad28d1b3abb8ba417http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2F%28SICI%291097-0088%28199809%2918%3A11%3C1169%3A%3AAID-JOC309%3E3.0.CO%3B2-U%2Ffullhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199809)18:11<1169::AID-JOC309>3.0.CO;2-U/fullAbstract All geophysical data bases need some form of quality assurance. Otherwise, erroneous data points may produce faulty analyses. However, simplistic quality control procedures have been known to contribute to erroneous conclusions by removing valid data points that were more extreme than the data set compilers expected. In producing version 2 of the global historical climatology network's (GHCN's) temperature data sets, a variety of quality control tests were evaluated and a specialized suite of procedures was developed. Quality control traditionally relies primarily on checks for outliers from both a time series and spatial perspective, the latter accomplished by comparisons with neighbouring stations. This traditional approach was used, and it was determined that there are many data problems that require additional tests to detect. In this paper a suite of quality control tests are justified and documented and applied to this global temperature data base, emphasizing the logic and limitations of each test. 1998 Royal Meteorological Society
    Phillips T. J., C. J. W. Bonfils, 2015: Köppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 064005.
    Rohli R. V., T. A. Joyner, S. J. Reynolds, C. Shaw, and J. R. Vãzquez, 2015: Globally extended Köppen-Geiger climate classification and temporal shifts in terrestrial climatic types. Phys. Geogr., 36, 142- 157.
    Rubel F., M. Kottek, 2010: Observed and projected climate shifts 1901-2100 depicted by world maps of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Meteorol. Z., 19, 135- 141.
    Shi Y., X. J. Gao, and J. Wu, 2012: Projected changes in Köppen climate types in the 21st century over China. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5, 495- 498.
    Song M. H., C. P. Zhou, and H. Ouyang, 2005: Simulated distribution of vegetation types in response to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau. J. Veg. Sci., 16, 341- 350.10.1111/j.1654-1103.2005.tb02372.xe0aed2e6acb381e4f30e05a69a7bc6cehttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1111%2Fj.1654-1103.2005.tb02372.x%2Fabstracthttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2005.tb02372.x/abstractAbstract Questions: What is the relationship between alpine vegetation patterns and climate? And how do alpine vegetation patterns respond to climate changes? Location: Tibetan Plateau, southwestern China. The total area is 2 500 000 km2 with an average altitude over 4000 m. Methods: The geographic distribution of vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau was simulated based on climatology using a small set of plant functional types (PFTs) embedded in the biogeochemistry-biography model BIOME4. The paleoclimate for the early Holocene was used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns. Changes in vegetation patterns were simulated assuming continuous exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects during the 21st century. Results: Forest, shrub steppe, alpine steppe and alpine meadow extended while no desert vegetation developed under the warmer and humid climate of the early Holocene. In the fut...
    Taylor K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485- 498.10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.102496a28-fd74-494f-9dd0-772d832581a7d378bae55de68ca8b37ba4ba57a3c0b9http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F235793806_An_Overview_of_CMIP5_and_the_Experiment_Design%3Fev%3Dauth_pubrefpaperuri:(102c64f576f0dc49ca552e6df691421b)http://www.researchgate.net/publication/235793806_An_Overview_of_CMIP5_and_the_Experiment_Design?ev=auth_pubThe fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.
    Van Vuuren, D. P., Coauthors, 2011: The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5- 31.10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z8bb571b08a5c08a22377509f6eb0986fhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.springerlink.com%2Fcontent%2Ff296645337804p75%2Fhttp://www.springerlink.com/content/f296645337804p75/This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new scenarios developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 x 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year more&raquo; 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis. 芦less
    Wang H., 2014: A multi-model assessment of climate change impacts on the distribution and productivity of ecosystems in China. Reg. Environ.Change, 14, 133- 144.10.1007/s10113-013-0469-848c60fa5bdf2cb485174c008e09da6bdhttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fresolve%2Freference%2FXREF%3Fid%3D10.1007%2Fs10113-013-0469-8http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/s10113-013-0469-8Potential twenty-first century changes in vegetation distribution and net primary production in China were assessed using three different vegetation models, including new process-oriented but observat
    Wang H., J. Ni, and I. C. Prentice, 2011: Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2. Reg. Environ.Change, 11, 715- 727.10.1007/s10113-011-0204-2230d4bbccba1b94e056860a15480e17fhttp%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs10113-011-0204-2http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-011-0204-2A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the responses of potential natural vegetation distribution in China to the separate and combined effects of temperature, precipitation and [CO 2 ], using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME4. The model shows a generally good agreement with a map of the potential natural vegetation distribution based on a numerical comparison using the Δ V statistic (Δ V =0.25). Mean temperature of each month was increased uniformly by 0–5K, in 0.5- or 1-K intervals. Mean precipitation of each month was increased and decreased uniformly by 0–30%, in 10% intervals. The analyses were run at fixed CO 2 concentrations of 360 and 720ppm. Temperature increases shifted most forest boundaries northward and westward, expanded the distribution of xeric biomes, and confined the tundra to progressively higher elevations. Precipitation increases led to a greater area occupied by mesic biomes at the expense of xeric biomes. Most vegetation types in the temperate regions, and on the Tibetan Plateau, expanded westward into the dry continental interior with increasing precipitation. Precipitation decreases had opposite effects. The modelled effect of CO 2 doubling was to partially compensate for the negative effect of drought on the mesic biomes and to increase potential ecosystem carbon storage by about 40%. Warming tended to counteract this effect, by reducing soil carbon storage. Forest biomes showed substantial resilience to climate change, especially when the effects of increasing [CO 2 ] were taken into account. Savannas, dry woodland and tundra biomes proved sensitive to temperature increases. The transition region of grassland and forest, and the Tibetan plateau, was the most vulnerable region.
    Wang M. Y., J. E. Overland, 2004: Detecting Arctic climate change using Köppen climate classification. Climatic Change, 67, 43- 62.
    Xie Z. H., F. Yuan, Q. Y. Duan, J. Zheng, M. L. Liang, and F. Chen, 2007: Regional parameter estimation of the VIC land surface model: Methodology and application to river basins in China. J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 447- 468.10.1175/JHM568.1cae65da92a89d39e499da9155c7a1018http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F200471980_Regional_Parameter_Estimation_of_the_VIC_Land_Surface_Model_Methodology_and_Application_to_River_Basins_in_Chinahttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/200471980_Regional_Parameter_Estimation_of_the_VIC_Land_Surface_Model_Methodology_and_Application_to_River_Basins_in_ChinaAbstract This paper presents a methodology for regional parameter estimation of the three-layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model with the goal of improving the streamflow simulation for river basins in China. This methodology is designed to obtain model parameter estimates from a limited number of calibrated basins and then regionalize them to uncalibrated basins based on climate characteristics and large river basin domains, and ultimately to continental China. Fourteen basins from different climatic zones and large river basins were chosen for model calibration. For each of these basins, seven runoff-related model parameters were calibrated using a systematic manual calibration approach. These calibrated parameters were then transferred within the climate and large river basin zones or climatic zones to the uncalibrated basins. To test the efficiency of the parameter regionalization method, a verification study was conducted on 19 independent river basins in China. Overall, the regionalized parameters, when evaluated against the a priori parameter estimates, were able to reduce the model bias by 0.4%–249.8% and relative root-mean-squared error by 0.2%–119.1% and increase the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of the streamflow simulation by 1.9%–31.7% for most of the tested basins. The transferred parameters were then used to perform a hydrological simulation over all of China so as to test the applicability of the regionalized parameters on a continental scale. The continental simulation results agree well with the observations at regional scales, indicating that the tested regionalization method is a promising scheme for parameter estimation for ungauged basins in China.
    Xu C. H., Y. Xu, 2012: The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5, 527- 533.ff3adcac1613ff11156ee6650aa81976http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cqvip.com%2FQK%2F89435X%2F201206%2F43967880.htmlhttp://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dqhhykxkb201206016
    Yu L., M. K. Cao, and K. R. Li, 2006: Climate-induced changes in the vegetation pattern of China in the 21st century. Eco. Res., 21, 912- 919.10.1007/s11284-006-0042-8e4f6a48dd9d68ca7dbc4544ba3d3668fhttp%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs11284-006-0042-8http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11284-006-0042-8Quantifying climate-induced changes in vegetation patterns is essential to understanding land09 limate interactions and ecosystem changes. In the present study, we estimated various distributional changes of vegetation under different climate-change scenarios in the 21st century. Both hypothetical scenarios and Hedley RCM scenarios show that the transitional vegetation types, such as shrubland and grassland, have higher sensitivity to climatic change compared to vegetation under extreme climatic conditions, such as the evergreen broadleaf forest or desert, barren lands. Mainly, the sensitive areas in China lie in the Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, northeastern plain of China and eco-zones between different vegetations. As the temperature increases, mixed forests and deciduous broadleaf forests will shift towards northern China. Grassland, shrubland and wooded grassland will extend to southeastern China. The RCM-project climate changes generally have caused positive vegetation changes; vegetation cover will probably improve 19% relative to baseline, and the forest will expand to 8% relative to baseline, while the desert and bare ground will reduce by about 13%.
    Zhang Y. J., G. S. Zhou, 2008: Terrestrial transect study on driving mechanism of vegetation changes. Sci. China Ser.D, 51, 984- 991.10.1007/s11430-008-0065-90ad13f099747b7efa84a6450d40d3203http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs11430-008-0065-9http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-JDXG200807008.htmIn terms of Chinese climate-vegetation model based on the classification of plant functional types, to- gether with climatic data from 1951 to 1980 and two future climatic scenarios (SRES-A2 and SRES-B2) in China from the highest and the lowest emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, the distribution patterns of vegetation types and their changes along the Northeast China Transect (NECT) and the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC) were simulated in order to understand the driving mechanisms of vegetation changes under climatic change. The results indicated that the vegetation distribution patterns would change significantly under future climate, and the major factors driving the vegetation changes were water and heat. However, the responses of various vegetation types to the changes in water and heat factors were obviously different. The vegetation changes were more sensi- tive to heat factors than to water factors. Thus, in the future climate warming will significantly affect vegetation distribution patterns.
    Zhao D. S., S. H. Wu, 2014: Responses of vegetation distribution to climate change in China. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 15- 28.10.1007/s00704-013-0971-447836a19c7fea08456a85645035c3569http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0971-4http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-013-0971-4Climate plays a crucial role in controlling vegetation distribution and climate change may therefore cause extended changes. A coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model called BIOME4 was modified by redefining the bioclimatic limits of key plant function types on the basis of the regional vegetation limate relationships in China. Compared to existing natural vegetation distribution, BIOME4 is proven more reliable in simulating the overall vegetation distribution in China. Possible changes in vegetation distribution were simulated under climate change scenarios by using the improved model. Simulation results suggest that regional climate change would result in dramatic changes in vegetation distribution. Climate change may increase the areas covered by tropical forests, warm-temperate forests, savannahs/dry woodlands and grasslands/dry shrublands, but decrease the areas occupied by temperate forests, boreal forests, deserts, dry tundra and tundra across China. Most vegetation in east China, specifically the boreal forests and the tropical forests, may shift their boundaries northwards. The tundra and dry tundra on the Tibetan Plateau may be progressively confined to higher elevation.
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Manuscript received: 18 March 2015
Manuscript revised: 31 July 2015
Manuscript accepted: 27 August 2015
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Projected Shifts in Köppen Climate Zones over China and Their Temporal Evolution in CMIP5 Multi-Model Simulations

  • 1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023

Abstract: Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1° scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions (7%-8% of China's land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest (Dwb) by deciduous forest (Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type (ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winter-dry climate (Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010-30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040-50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China's land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions in future decades.

1. Introduction
  • China has a population over 1.3 billion, the world's third largest land area, varied topography, and diverse ecosystems. Therefore, the impacts of projected climate changes are expected to be large (Yu et al., 2006; Ni, 2011). To estimate ecological changes, some studies have used climate model outputs to drive a specialized vegetation model that projects changes in vegetation cover based on temperature, precipitation and other factors such as surface runoff and soil feedback (Ni et al., 2000; Ma et al., 2014; Wang, 2014; Zhao and Wu, 2014; Cho et al., 2015; Pan et al., 2015). Vegetation models project the following changes in vegetation cover over China by the end of the 21st century: a northward shift of all forests, disappearance of boreal forest over northeastern China, new tropical forests, an eastward expansion of grassland, and a reduction in alpine vegetation (Ni, 2011). Other studies, using Köppen or related climate classification to investigate possible shifts in climate zones over China (Xie et al., 2007; Baker et al., 2010; Shi et al., 2012), generally project similar decreases of boreal forest in northeastern China, evergreen forest in southeastern China, and alpine tundra over the Tibetan Plateau.

    The Köppen climate classification scheme was developed to explain observed biome distributions, which have many sharp boundaries due to plant sensitivity to threshold values of average monthly temperature and precipitation and their annual cycle (Köppen, 1936), and each climate type is closely associated with certain prevalent vegetation species. While climate zones are not exact boundaries for all species, locations with a change in climate class are expected to experience the most noticeable ecosystem stress, such as widespread die-back of forests. Köppen or similar classifications have been extensively used to estimate the potential impacts of past and future climate on prevalent ecoregions on regional and global scales (e.g., Wang and Overland, 2004; Gnanadesikan and Stouffer, 2006; De Castro et al., 2007; Baker et al., 2010; Rubel and Kottek, 2010; Mahlstein et al., 2013; Feng et al., 2014; Almorox et al., 2015; Engelbrecht and Engelbrecht, 2015; Phillips and Bonfils, 2015; Rohli et al., 2015). The Köppen or related classification schemes can be applied to climate model output as a first-order index to assess possible past and future changes in ecosystem types on a grid-cell level (Peel et al., 2007; Mahlstein et al., 2013). Despite its simplicity, (Baker et al., 2010) suggested that the Köppen climate types resemble the major vegetation types in China. Based on Köppen or related climate classifications, previous studies have shown that regions of temperate climate types are projected to expand, while regions of sub-polar and alpine climate types are projected to contract significantly over the national land area by 2100, using projected changes in temperature and precipitation in China (e.g., Rubel and Kottek, 2010; Shi et al., 2012; Feng et al., 2014). Other findings include losses of subtropical humid climate in Southeast China and an almost unchanged arid climate in Northwest China by 2100 (Shi et al., 2012).

    The present study extends previous large-scale and regional studies by investigating, with detailed temporal and spatial resolution, the temporal evolution of projected Köppen climate types over China, including the emergence time and rate of anthropogenic-related change in climate types, and the relative role of temperature and precipitation in projected climate shifts. Other considerations are as follows: First, China encompasses a variety of climate types, from southern tropical to northern boreal, and from eastern humid to western arid and alpine climates (Ni, 2011). Second, projected future climate changes are not uniformly distributed among different regions in China. For instance, under the +8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario (RCP8.5), warming is projected to be up to 1.5°C greater in northern and western regions than in southeastern areas (Xu and Xu, 2012; also see Fig. 1). Annual precipitation increases in all areas, with the largest increases in southwestern regions (see Fig. 1b), but the greatest percentage increases are in northern and western regions (Xu and Xu, 2012). Third, vegetation cover in different regions demonstrates varying sensitivity to climate change. Ecosystems over western and northern China are found to be more vulnerable to a change in climate than those over eastern China (Ni, 2011), and low-latitude mountainous regions are more likely to experience a shift in climate types (Mahlstein et al., 2013).

    Our study is complementary to previous studies that focused on projections of China's climate types. We further investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate types in China by 2100, and it is hoped that our analysis will prove helpful in promoting public awareness of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions.

    Figure 1.  Spatial distributions of multi-model mean linear trends [$^\circ$C (110 yr)$^-1$ for temperature and (mm month$^-1$) (110 yr)$^-1$ for precipitation] in (a, b) annual, (c, d) winter (December-February), and (e, f) summer (June-August) mean (a, c, e) temperature and (b, d, f) precipitation, under the RCP8.5 scenario during 1990-2100. Summer precipitation trends (f) have been divided by two to meet the range of the color scale.

2. Data and method
  • Monthly temperature and precipitation grids from the University of Delaware (Legates and Willmott, 1990a, 1990b) were used to calculate the observed Köppen climate type in each grid box using 1980-99 (the "base period") averages for each month of the year. The Delaware dataset was chosen mainly due to its high resolution (1°× 1°). Version 3.02 covers the period 1900-2010 and is derived from GHCN2 (Global Historical Climate Network) and additional data obtained by Legates and Willmott (1990a, 1990b) covering the entire terrestrial area, and represents the climatological distribution of temperature and precipitation well (Legates and Willmott, 1990a, 1990b; Peterson et al., 1998). This dataset has been used in other studies of Köppen climate classification (Feng et al., 2014; Chan and Wu, 2015).

    Simulated fields of temperature and precipitation through to 2100 were obtained from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project, Phase 5) simulations performed using 31 global climate models (Table 1). The model runs were forced by observed atmospheric composition changes (reflecting both anthropogenic and natural sources) from 1950-2005 (the historical data period), and by prescribed changes in greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols from 2006 to 2100 following four different RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) from 2006-2100 (Taylor et al., 2012). Under these scenarios, radiative forcings in 2100 are about 2.6 (after a peak value of 3.0 around 2040), 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W m-2 greater, respectively, relative to the preindustrial period, including most known forcing factors (compared with 1.75 W m-2 in 2000). The corresponding equivalent CO2 concentrations (expressing all other radiative forcings as added or subtracted CO2 amounts) in 2100 are projected to be about 470 (after a peak of 490 around 2040), 650, 850 and 1370 ppm (Van Vuuren et al., 2011). As in (Mahlstein et al., 2013), for a specific model and scenario with multiple ensemble runs, only the output from one ensemble (r1i1p1) was used, so that all models were afforded equal weight.

  • The following pretreatments, which were also performed by (Mahlstein et al., 2013) and (Feng et al., 2014), were applied to both observed and simulated fields before computing the Köppen classes. First, the monthly grids of data were interpolated onto a 1°× 1° grid to ensure the same resolution. Second, anomalies relative to the simulated monthly means for 1980-99 were calculated in each model and each of the four RCP scenarios, and were then added to the observed 1980-99 monthly means to reduce errors in the climate classification. This was necessary because the Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme is highly sensitive to thresholds, and current models have temperature and precipitation biases that cause difficulties in simulating the correct Köppen classes, even for present conditions (Gnanadesikan and Stouffer, 2006; Mahlstein et al., 2013). Third, to emphasize trends rather than short-term climate variations that cause erratic climate zone movements, a 15-year running smoothing was applied to all CMIP5 grids (monthly grids were the averages of the same month of each year). Fifteen years is the optimal averaging interval for Köppen or related classifications (Fraedrich et al., 2001), but the present results were not highly sensitive to the length of the averaging period. In the rest of this paper, model-derived data for a "year" refers to a 15-year centered average, and the last available year of 2093 is the 2086-2100 average.

  • Köppen-Geiger climate classes were determined using the criteria defined in (Peel et al., 2007). The classification process first identifies five major climate types: A-tropical; B-dry (arid and semiarid); C-subtropical; D-continental; and E-polar. Type B is based on moisture availability, while the other types are based on annual temperature. Each major type has two or three subtypes, and each subtype in types B-D has two to four minor subtypes, all classified according to the seasonal cycle of temperature, precipitation, or both. There are 30 possible climate types, and Table 2 lists the criteria for the 18 climate classes relevant to China. While types A, C, D and E are mutually exclusive temperature categories, any arid or semiarid location (Type B) also fits the temperature criteria of another climate type, so tests for Type B were performed first.

  • The focus of this study was not on differences between models, so grids from all model runs in each scenario were averaged together. The pretreated monthly multi-model averaged temperature and precipitation grids (projected group) were then used to assign Köppen classes for each grid box and year from 1991 (1984-98 average) to 2093 (2086-2100 average), and the year of change (if any) of climate class from the 1990 base year (center year of observed 1980-99 climatology) was noted. Note that Köppen classification is based on climate values rather than anomalies.

    To distinguish and eliminate possible natural fluctuations in climate zones, the naturally occurring climate shifts in a grid box were identified using detrended 15-year smoothed temperature and precipitation ("natural group") (Mahlstein et al., 2013). In the natural group, the atmospheric fields were first detrended over 1950-2005 and 2006-2100, separately, and then pretreated using the same interpolation, adjustment and smoothing methods as in section 2.2. Since there were no trends in the natural group, the distribution of climate zones in the natural group should mainly resemble those based on observed 1980-99 climatology, indicating the projection of no significant changes in climate types in the natural group.

    By comparing with the natural group, we counted a human-induced change in climate type for a particular grid point in the "projected group" under two circumstances: (1) A new climate type never found in the natural group emerged, and its time of emergence was the first year it was identified. (2) A new climate type-which could also be found in the natural group, but would shift back to its original class quickly due to short-term variability-that persisted until at least 2100, or changed to another new climate type. Its emerging time was the first year when this new climate type in the projected group differed from that in the natural group. Changes counted under the second circumstance indicated irreversible human-induced shifts in climate types, and were commonly found over transient zones.

    All changes of climate zones counted were caused by increasing anthropogenic forcing. In other words, natural-induced temporary changes in the projected group were omitted through further analyses. Finally, the percentage of land area covered by each climate type was computed by area-weighting all grid boxes by the cosine of their latitude.

3. Results
  • The multi-model ensemble-mean warming and precipitation trends during 1990-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario (Fig. 1) are consistent with a previous study by (Xu and Xu, 2012). Three centers of warming are located over Northeast and Northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau (Fig. 1a), with generally more warming in winter than in summer (Figs. 1c and e). The projected annual precipitation increases over all of China (Fig. 1b). Despite Southeast China currently being the wettest region, small increases are expected there, with a band of increased precipitation extending from inland southeastern China to northeastern China. The largest precipitation increase, however, is expected in southwestern China, including part of the Tibetan region into central China, an area that is currently moderately dry. The above-mentioned increase in precipitation occurs mostly in summer (Fig. 1f). Reduced wintertime precipitation is found over Southwest and Southeast China, and the Himalaya (Fig. 1d). The spatial distributions under the other scenarios, though showing smaller amplitude, are similar to those under RCP8.5 (figures not shown).

  • Figure 2a shows the 1990 base year Köppen classes over China, and encompasses 13 subtypes from all 5 basic types. Table 2 lists the Köppen classes observed or projected in China from (Peel et al., 2007), as well as their corresponding climate (Shi et al., 2012) and general vegetation types (Hou et al., 1982). There is a small area of tropical climate (Am) in the far south of China, while deserts (Bw) and steppe (Bs) are dominant over northwestern China. Temperate climate (C), mainly including three subtypes [humid (Cfa), subtropical winter dry (Cwa), and oceanic climate (Cwb)], is found over Southwest and southeastern China. North and Northeast China are mainly characterized by continental humid climate (Dwa and Dwb), while sub-polar climate (Dwc) is detectable over the northernmost region. Finally, alpine climate (ET) dominates the central and southwestern Tibetan Plateau, while continental climate (mainly Dwb and Dwc) is found over the eastern and southern Tibetan Plateau and arid climate (mainly BWk and BSk) is found over the western and northern Tibetan Plateau. The coverage of the major climate types A-E in 1990 is about 0.5%, 29.7%, 27.9%, 32.1% and 9.8% of the total land area, respectively. Such distributions of present-day Köppen classifications are consistent with regional climate types over China in global studies by (Peel et al., 2007) and (Rubel and Kottek, 2010), and reflect the vegetation map of (Hou et al., 1982) fairly well, which indicates that the Köppen climate types are well able to capture signals of eco-climate regions in China.

    Figure 2.  Spatial distribution of Köppen classes over China in the 1990 base year, computed from (a) observed data, and derived from multi-model averaged projections for 2093 under the RCP (b) 2.6, (c) 4.5, (d) 6 and (e) 8.5 scenarios.

    The projected climate types for 2093 derived from multi-model averages are shown in Figs. 2b-e. Under the low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), the most conspicuous changes are found over Northeast China, characterized by shifts of Dwc to Dwb and Dwb to Dwa, and also over the Tibetan Plateau, characterized by shifts of ET to Dwc and Dwc to Dwb. Other changes include a northwestward retreat of Cwb associated with an expansion of Cwa in Southwest China, and a northward expansion of Cwa and Cfa over East and Central China.

    These changes are larger under the intermediate emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6), including the further reduction of Dwb and the disappearance of Dwc in Northeast China, the replacement of ET with transitional boreal forest (Dwc and Dwb) in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Plateau due to increasing summertime temperature (Fig. 1e), and a great shrinkage of Cfa in Southeast China mainly caused by decreasing precipitation in winter. Dramatic changes are found under the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), characterized by the disappearance of Dwb in Northeast China (replaced by Dwa), the disappearance of ET on the Tibetan Plateau (replaced by Dwb and Dwc in southern and eastern parts, and BSk in the northwestern part), a vast shrinkage of Cfa over southeastern China, the emergence of Bwa (hot desert climate) in Northwest China, and an extension of Aw (tropical savanna) reaching the nearby coast in South China.

    Higher emissions cause greater eco-climate impacts. By the end of the 21st century, about 22.5%, 37.3%, 47.0% and 50.8% of China's total land area is projected to undergo anthropogenic changes (compared with 1990 types) under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Projected areas, by 2093, are 29.1%, 28.4%, 28.1% and 30.6% for type B, 30.1%, 32.8%, 32.9% and 36.4% for type C, 35.7%, 36.0%, 37.0% and 31.1% for type D, and 4.7%, 2.2%, 0.7% and 0% for ET (Figs. 3b-e). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in the present study (Fig. 2e) agree with regional results over China in the global studies by (Rubel and Kottek, 2010) and (Feng et al., 2014), and the subtype changes over eastern China are generally consistent with the findings of (Shi et al., 2012).

    Figure 3.  (a) Time series of percentage changes in Köppen classes over the national land area (green line, RCP2.6; orange line, RCP4.5; yellow line, RCP6.0; red line, RCP8.5). (b-e) Total area occupied by each of the major climate types B-E, respectively (thin solid lines, RCP2.6; thin dashed lines, RCP4.5; thick dashed lines, RCP6.0; thick solid lines, RCP8.5. (f, g) Time series of areas (%) in three sub-types of the major climate types C and D, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperate ocean climate (Cwb) over Southwest China (SW) and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and two continental winter dry climate types (Dwa and Dwb) over Northeast China (NE) and the TP, are plotted separately.

    Figure 4.  Maps showing the times of first emergence——the year a specific grid box undergoes a human-induced shift in climate zones for the first time——under (a) RCP2.6, (b) RCP4.5, (c) RCP6.0 and (d) RCP8.5. White areas denote that no anthropogenic changes occur until the end of the 21st century (2086-2100 due to 15-year smoothing).

  • Figure 3 shows time series from 1990 to 2093 of the percentage of China's land area seeing changes in Köppen classes compared with 1990, and the percentages occupied by the major climate types B-E and certain C and D subtypes. In the historical period (2010 compared to 1990), anthropogenic influence is already detectable, with strong expansion (contraction) in type D (ET) climate and weak expansion (contraction) in type C (B) climate, causing climate type changes in about 7%-8% of national land area. Under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 scenarios, about 21.4%, 27.4%, 24.3% and 35.9%, respectively, of total land area is projected to undergo a change in 2050 compared to 1990.

    The year when an anthropogenic-induced change in ecoregions, compared to the 1990 base year, first emerges in each grid box for each scenario is shown in Fig. 4. As can be seen, there is considerable spatial variation in the emergence of changes in Köppen climate types. First, the changes in Köppen climate types before 2010 are mainly seen in transition zones between the present Köppen climate types shown in Fig. 2a. These changes are associated with the shift from Dwb to Dwa in Northeast China, the northwestward retreat of Cwb in Southwest China, the northward expansion of Cwa over northern Central and East China, and the shift from ET to Dwc over the margins of the Tibetan Plateau. Second, these ongoing shifts continue at a northward or westward pace from transition zones. Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau are two regions most sensitive to projected warming in the ensuing decades. Rapid changes of Dwb to Dwa in Northeast China, and strong shrinkage of ET on the Tibetan Plateau are projected before 2030-40 under the RCP4.5 or higher scenarios (Figs. 4b-e). The projected area of ET is less than 5.0% of the national land area by 2040 (Fig. 3e). Third, the annual percentage decrease of ET is projected to increase substantially after 2010. The relative area of ET decreases by about 1.7% during 1990-2010, but is projected to decrease by about 2.7%, 2.7%, and 2.4% and 3.1% of China's land area during 2010-30 under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively (Fig. 3e). Fourth, the pace of northward or westward shifts in climate zones increases under high RCP scenarios after 2030-40. For these grid boxes away from transition zones, projected climate shifts tend to emerge earlier under the higher RCP scenarios. For instance, most shifts from Dwc to Dwb over northern Northeast China are projected to happen by around 2040-50 under RCP8.5; whereas, under RCP4.5, it is projected to happen by around 2050-70. Similar advances by 20-30 years in emerging anthropogenic signals can also be found in the northward shift of temperate forests (Cwa and Cfa) over northern East China, the change of ET to Dwb on the Tibetan Plateau, the shrinkage of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China, and the shifts of Cfa to Cwa in Southeast China. Finally, the coverage of type-B climate is projected to be about 28%-30% throughout the 21st century under all scenarios (Fig. 3b), and the replacement of Cwa by Aw over South China occurs near the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario only (Fig. 4d).

    Figure 5.  As in Fig. 2e but with trends of (a) precipitation or (b) temperature, removed.

    We further investigated the temporal evolution of land area covered by six sub-types of major type-C and type-D under the RCP8.5 scenario (Figs. 3f and g). The coverage of temperate climate increases from the northward and westward expansion of Cwa and Cwb (Fig. 3c). Cwb is projected to decrease in Southwest China, but increase over the Tibetan Plateau (Fig. 3f). The evolutions of sub-type climate Cwa and Cfa over eastern China exhibit considerable variability, but the projected coverage of Cwa (Cfa) shows a strong increase (decrease) during 2035-55. The coverage of temperate climate increases by about 4.5% and 8.5% by 2050 and 2093, respectively (Fig. 3c). As climate change accelerates, Dwc is rapidly replaced by Dwb over Northeast China before 2050, and primarily confined to over the Tibetan Plateau after 2050. The annual percentage decrease of Dwb in Northeast China is projected to increase substantially after 2010. The coverage of Dwb is projected to be about 8.1%, 7.0%, 5.4%, 3.3% and 1.4% in 1990, 2010, 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively, and decrease by about 1.1%, 1.6%, 2.1%, 1.9% of China's land area during 1990-2010, 2010-30, 2030-50, and 2050-70, respectively (Fig. 3g). The coverage of Dwa is projected to increase to 15.3% (16.1%) in 2050 (2093) from 9.8% in 1990, suggesting that the expansion of Dwa will mostly finish before 2050. The projected decrease of the total area of type-D climate after 2070 shown in Fig. 3d is mainly due to the shift of Dwc to Dwb and Dwb to Cwb on the Tibetan Plateau (Figs. 3f and g).

  • Most changes in climate types over China seem to be temperature rather than precipitation driven. Figure 5 shows the spatial distributions of projected Köppen classes for 2093, calculated by the changes in individual variables under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the climate shifts apparent in Fig. 2e are reproduced if precipitation is held constant, while only the present-day distribution in Fig. 2a is broadly captured when the temperature is fixed. Similar results have been discussed in previous vegetation model studies (Zhang and Zhou, 2008; Wang et al., 2011).

    Figure 5 also reveals that the area of arid climate increases (decreases) with growth in temperature (precipitation) over North and Northwest China, suggesting that water and heat factors play opposite roles for arid climate (type B). These two offsetting effects may explain why the coverage of type-B (arid) climate shows no significant changes in the 21st century even under the RCP8.5 scenario (Fig. 2e). In addition, Fig. 5b confirms that decreasing winter precipitation causes the reduction of subtropical humid Cfa in southeastern China (Shi et al., 2012), while increasing temperature results in the northwestward retreat of Cwb in Southwest China.

4. Conclusions
  • The Köppen classification schemes were developed to predict the biome distribution by combining temperature and precipitation, and their seasonality, into one matrix. Although such bioclimatic classification schemes have some disadvantages, such as the lack of wind, sunshine and CO2 effects as contributing factors to shifting biome patterns, previous studies have suggested that the Köppen climate types are largely successful in their resemblance of the major vegetation types (Baker et al., 2010).

    The aim of the present study was to extend previous general studies on observed and projected climate shifts in China, by performing a detailed investigation of the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate types over the national land area using observational data and simulations from multiple global climate models participating in CMIP5. The projected changes of climate types by 2100 generally agree with previous studies using Köppen or related climate classifications (Baker et al., 2010; Rubel and Kottek, 2010; Shi et al., 2012; Feng et al., 2014), and studies with specialized vegetation models driven by climate model outputs (Ni et al., 2000; Zhao and Wu, 2014; Wang, 2014; Cho et al., 2015). However, the following specific findings suggest that impacts of anthropogenic climate change on regional climate zones are already evident and are expected to accelerate, under all future scenarios, before 2050.

    (1) The magnitudes of the impacts of warming and the pace of shifts were found to be similar before 2030, but larger under higher emissions scenarios thereafter. The proportion of the national land area experiencing changes in climate types increased gradually from about 7%-8% in 2010 to about 22.5%, 37.3%, 47.0% and 50.8% by the end of this century under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

    (2) Northeast China was found to be one of the regions most sensitive to increasing warming in the first half of this century. The pace of the shift of Dwb to Dwa, corresponding to the replacement of temperate/boreal mixed forest by temperate deciduous forest (Ni et al., 2000; Leng et al., 2008; Ni, 2011), is expected to significantly increase in the coming decades. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, Dwc (boreal forest) disappeared over northern Northeast China by around 2040-50.

    (3) The Tibetan Plateau is another sensitive region whose biome system is expected to face more exposure and risks related to future climate change, with the disappearance of the current alpine climate area by 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The loss of alpine climate was concentrated in the period 2010-30, and its projected area was under 5% by 2040 under all scenarios, implying that the impacts of climate changes over this region will accelerate in the near future. There is likely to be a major westward and northward shift of boreal deciduous forest/woodland and alpine meadow, and a major reduction in alpine tundra/polar desert (Song et al., 2005; Ni, 2011).

    (4) The region of temperate climate (C), under all four scenarios, was projected to expand due to the northwestward shift of subtropical winter dry (Cwa) over eastern China and the increase of temperate ocean climate (Cwb) over the Tibetan Plateau. A northward and westward expansion of Cwa over Central and East China was found to be associated with a northwestward retreat of Cwb in Southwest China, under all four scenarios. A rapid shrinkage of subtropical humid (Cfa) in East China was projected for the period 2035-55 due to the decrease in winter precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario.

    Although caution should be applied while using the Köppen-Geiger classification method to interpret vegetation changes, the present results nevertheless indicate significant impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecoregions over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China-sensitive regions whose biome system is expected to face more exposure and risks related to climate change in the near future. When a climate threshold is passed, the existing vegetation will be less suited to the changed environment, and changes in vegetation can jeopardize the habitats of the wildlife that depends on those plant communities.

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