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Influence of October Eurasian Snow on Winter Temperature over Northeast China


doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-5274-0

  • This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between October Eurasian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The snow cover located in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal plays an important role in the winter air temperature anomaly. More (less) eastern Siberia snow in October can cause an atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern in which the atmospheric pressure is higher (lower) than normal in the polar region and lower (higher) in the northern mid-high latitudes. Due to the persistence of the eastern Siberia snow from October to the following winter, the winter atmospheric anomaly is favorable (unfavorable) to the widespread movement of cold air masses from the polar region toward the northern mid-high latitudes and, hence, lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China. Simultaneously, when the October snow cover is more (less), the SST in the northwestern Pacific is continuously lower (higher) as a whole; then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced (weakened), favoring the lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China.
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Manuscript received: 18 December 2015
Manuscript revised: 31 May 2016
Manuscript accepted: 01 August 2016
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Influence of October Eurasian Snow on Winter Temperature over Northeast China

  • 1. China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, China
  • 2. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 3. Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Abstract: This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between October Eurasian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The snow cover located in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal plays an important role in the winter air temperature anomaly. More (less) eastern Siberia snow in October can cause an atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern in which the atmospheric pressure is higher (lower) than normal in the polar region and lower (higher) in the northern mid-high latitudes. Due to the persistence of the eastern Siberia snow from October to the following winter, the winter atmospheric anomaly is favorable (unfavorable) to the widespread movement of cold air masses from the polar region toward the northern mid-high latitudes and, hence, lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China. Simultaneously, when the October snow cover is more (less), the SST in the northwestern Pacific is continuously lower (higher) as a whole; then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced (weakened), favoring the lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China.

1. Introduction
  • The trend of China's air temperature is similar to the general trend of global air temperature, and it clearly records regional climate change in the past century. Regions with the largest warming are in Northeast, Northwest and North China, and the northern Tibetan Plateau, with warming at a higher magnitude than that of the air temperature averaged over the whole country, and with the largest warming occurring in winter and spring (Ding and Dai, 1994; Gao et al., 2002; Ren et al., 2005; Sun et al., 2005; Wang and Sun, 2009; Guo and Wang, 2012; Wang et al., 2012; Guo et al., 2016). The northeastern region of China (35°-55°N, 110°E-135°E; hereinafter referred to as Northeast China), located in the mid-high latitudes, is in the temperate zone of the continental monsoon climate and is one of the most significant warming regions in China. The variation of air temperature over Northeast China is similar to that of the global air temperature in terms of the overall trend, but it differs from the general variation of China's air temperature to some extent (Zhang and Fu, 1983). Thus, the variation of air temperature over Northeast China is a pacemaker for the climate change of northern Asia.

    Few studies have examined the variability of the winter air temperature over Northeast China and the associated predictability (Fan, 2009, 2011; Li and Wang, 2012; Fan and Tian, 2013). This paper, therefore, from the perspective of seasonal to interannual prediction, explores preceding predictors for the winter air temperature over Northeast China in the interannual variability. There are two main factors involved in air temperature change in China: atmospheric circulation and the surface thermal conditions. One of the most important thermal factors is ENSO, which is the largest interannual variability of SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific. However, the relationship between the East Asia winter monsoon and ENSO has remarkably weakened since the mid-1970s (Wang and He, 2012). Recently, (Liu et al., 2012) showed that autumn Arctic sea ice has been an important factor influencing winter extreme snow and severe cold over China in recent years (see also, Wang and Zhang, 2010; Wang et al., 2011; Ma et al., 2012; Li and Wang, 2013; Chen et al., 2014).

    To identify more predictors over the Eurasian continent based on the atmospheric circulation anomaly in the mid-high latitudes, enabling better prediction of the air temperature over Northeast China, this paper investigates the influence of Eurasian snow on the interannual variability of winter air temperature over Northeast China. Snow cover is an important component of the cryosphere in the climate system, and it can influence the exchange of water and energy in the land-air system through the albedo and water effects of snow cover (Douville and Royer, 1996; Walland and Simmonds, 1996). Eurasian snow cover plays an important role in regional and global climate change (Barnett et al., 1989; Yasunari et al., 1991; Bamzai and Shukla, 1999). Many studies have discussed the relationship of the preceding winter with the spring Eurasian snow anomaly and following-spring and following-summer climate change (Guo and Wang, 1986; Liu and Luo, 1990; Lu and Luo, 1994; Luo, 1995; Tan et al., 1999; Liu and Yanai, 2002; Qian et al., 2003; Wu and Kirtman, 2007; Wu et al., 2009; Mu and Zhou, 2010; Zhang and Li, 2012). Other researchers have studied the simultaneous relationship between the winter Eurasian snow anomaly and climate anomalies (Chen et al., 1999, 2003; Chen and Sun, 2003). However, few studies have addressed the influence of the preceding autumn Eurasian snow anomaly on following-winter air temperature.

    The temporal and spatial characteristics of the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China are analyzed in this paper. Then, the relationship between October Eurasian snow and winter air temperature over Northeast China is discussed. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms of the influence of preceding October Eurasian snow on following-winter air temperature over Northeast China are investigated.

    Following this introduction, section 2 introduces the data used in the research. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the interannual variability of winter air temperature over Northeast China and the relationship of preceding Eurasian snow with following-winter air temperature over Northeast China are described in section 3. The possible physical mechanisms are investigated in section 4, and a summary and discussion are presented in section 5.

2. Data
  • The datasets used in this paper are as follows:

    (1) The observed monthly air temperature of 166 meteorological stations in Northeast China for the period 1973-2009, released by the National Meteorological Information Center of China. There are no missing data among the 166 stations. The distribution of the 166 stations is shown in Fig. 1.

    (2) The monthly reanalysis dataset produced by NCEP-NCAR, which is a global and gridded dataset that includes a number of variables at a spatial resolution of 2.5°× 2.5° (Kalnay et al., 1996). For this study, we use SLP, geopotential height and zonal and meridional wind for the period 1973-2009. (Data available at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.pressure.html)

    Figure 1.  Distribution of meteorological stations in Northeast China.

    (3) The snow cover area index for the period 1973-2009 is from the CPC of the NOAA (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/data/snow/). The monthly satellite-derived snow water equivalent data (Armstrong et al., 2005) for the period 1979-2006 are from the NSIDC (http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0271.html). These data are gridded on northern and southern 25-km Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grids.

    (4) ERSST.v3b, produced by NOAA, with a horizontal resolution of 2.0°× 2.0° (Smith et al., 2008). (Data available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/ extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b)

    (5) In addition to the observational datasets, the output data (including winter air temperature and October snow water equivalent) from historical simulation experiments from 34 models of CMIP5 are used to discuss the relationship between October Eurasian snow and winter temperature over Northeast China. Basic information on the 34 models is provided in Table 1, and more detailed information can be found at http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov. As most of the CMIP5 data are available to 2005 only, and the snow cover area index starts from 1973, the model output data used in this paper are for the period 1973-2005.

3. Interannual variability of winter temperature in Northeast China and its response to preceding-autumn snow cover in Siberia
  • To analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its influencing factors, all meteorological variables in this study are detrended. Using the monthly air temperature of the 166 meteorological stations in Northeast China, the winter (December to the following February, i.e., DJF) air temperature, without the linear trend from 1973 to 2009, is investigated using the EOF analysis method. The first eigenvector can explain 72.92% of the total variance. Figure 2 shows the first EOF mode and the corresponding time coefficient (Tcf1) of the winter air temperature. Evidently, the interannual variations of winter air temperature have accordant negative values all over Northeast China. The largest variability of the winter air temperature over Northeast China lies in the central area.

    In this section, we first investigate the connection between the Eurasian snow cover and winter air temperature from perspective of temporal correlation, to select the key time and region for Eurasian snow. Then, because the variation of the atmospheric circulation can directly affect the interannual variability of winter air temperature, we investigate the winter atmospheric circulation anomaly's relationship with the Eurasian snow cover and the winter air temperature separately.

    First, we investigate the correlation between the Tcf1 and the Eurasian snow cover area index of the preceding months (from January to November) and the simultaneous period (DJF) to select the key time of the Eurasian snow anomaly. From the time-varying correlation coefficient between the Tcf1 and Eurasian snow cover area index (Fig. 3), we can see that the correlation coefficient between the October Eurasian snow cover area index (abbreviated as SCA_Oct) and the Tcf1 is relatively higher than at other times and that there is a positive correlation between the SCA_Oct and the Tcf1, with the significance at the 95% confidence level. It is indicated that the October Eurasian snow cover area is significantly and negatively correlated with the winter air temperature.

    Figure 2.  The first EOF mode and time coefficient (Tcf1) of the winter air temperature over Northeast China from 1973 to 2009.

    Figure 3.  The time-varying correlation coefficient between the Tcf1 and Eurasian snow cover area index of the preceding months (from January to November) and the simultaneous period (DJF).

    Figure 4.  Distribution of correlation coefficient between October snow water equivalent and Tair_DJF.

    Figure 5.  Linear regression of winter SLP (top) and 500 hPa geopotential height (bottom) on the SCA_Oct (left) and Tcf1 (right) for the period 1973-2009. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence level.

    Figure 6.  Linear regression of the 850 hPa wind field (vectors) on the SCA_Oct (top) and Tcf1 (bottom) for the period 1973-2009. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence level.

    According to the foregoing statement, the key time of the Eurasian snow cover anomaly is in October. To select the key region of the Eurasian snow, we use the October mean satellite-derived snow water equivalent data provided by the NSIDC. The snow water equivalent reflects the total water quantity of the snow. Because the snow water equivalent contains information on snow depth and density, it can represent the effect of the snow cover comprehensively. As demonstrated by the distribution of the correlation coefficient between the October snow water equivalent and the time series of the winter air temperature averaged over the 166 meteorological stations (abbreviated as Tair_DJF), there is a high and negative correlation region in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal (the red box in Fig. 4), where the snow cover plays an important role in the winter air temperature over Northeast China. Moreover, it is also an indication that there is a negative correlation between the October snow located in eastern Siberia and the winter air temperature over Northeast China.

    Furthermore, we also calculate the October snow water equivalent index (abbreviated as SWE_Oct) averaged over the key region [the red box in Fig. 4, i.e., (55°-65°N, 110°-135°E)] of the eastern Siberia snow. There is a significant positive correlation between the SWE_Oct and the SCA_Oct, with a correlation coefficient of 0.65. We use the SCA_Oct and Tcf1 as the interannual variation of the October snow cover in eastern Siberia and the winter air temperature over Northeast China separately for further research in this article.

    The main atmospheric circulation systems influencing the winter air temperature over Northeast China include the Siberian high, the Aleutian low, the East Asia trough and the wind fields in the upper and lower levels. Consequently, the boreal winter SLP, 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa wind field and 200 hPa zonal wind are selected to investigate the response to the eastern Siberia snow cover anomaly and winter air temperature and their associated features of interannual variations using regression analysis. From the distribution of the linear regression coefficients of the boreal winter SLP and the 500 hPa geopotential height (see Fig. 5) on the SCA_Oct and Tcf1, an annular mode can be observed in the Northern Hemisphere. There are mainly positive values in the high latitudes (north of 60°N) and negative values in the middle latitudes (south of 60°N). The annular mode is mainly displayed by an anti-phase mode between the high and middle latitudes, which is similar to the mode of the Arctic Oscillation to some extent. It is also indicated that more (less) eastern Siberian snow in October corresponds to a positive (negative) winter SLP anomaly in the Siberian region and a negative (positive) anomaly around the Aleutian islands. Thus, the Siberian high and the Aleutian low are all stronger (weaker) with lower (higher) winter air temperature over Northeast China. Furthermore, more (less) eastern Siberian snow in October is associated with a negative (positive) winter 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly over the east coast of the Asian continent. Thus, the East Asia trough is deeper (shallower) than normal, and the winter air temperature over Northeast China is on the lower (higher) side. Figure 6 shows the distribution of the linear regression coefficients of the boreal winter 850 hPa wind anomaly on the SCA_Oct and Tcf1. It is indicated that more eastern Siberian snow in October is associated with a stronger cyclonic wind circulation in the lower troposphere around the Aleutian islands, which favors the reinforcement of the Aleutian low in winter. Furthermore, the northeasterly wind anomaly in the Siberian region is favorable for the transport of cold air masses to Northeast China, resulting in a lower air temperature. In addition, when the eastern Siberian snow in October cover is greater, the corresponding winter 200 hPa zonal wind field is dominated by the anomalous westerlies and easterlies in the middle and high northern latitudes, respectively. This distribution of the upper-level zonal wind is associated with a lower winter temperature (Fig. 7).

    Overall, the pattern of the regression coefficients of the atmospheric circulation anomaly on the SCA_Oct is similar to that on the Tcf1. It is indicated that there is a close relationship between October eastern Siberian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The question thus arises as to how October eastern Siberian snow affects following-winter air temperature over Northeast China on the interannual scale. This question and the possible physical mechanisms are preliminarily investigated in the next section.

    Figure 7.  As in Fig.6 but for the 200 hPa zonal wind.

4. Possible physical mechanisms
  • The possible physical mechanisms of the influence on winter air temperature of preceding-October eastern Siberian snow cover are presented from two aspects in this article. On the one hand, the persistence of the eastern Siberian snow anomaly from October to winter causes the associated anomaly of the atmospheric circulation, resulting in the abnormal air temperature in winter. On the other hand, the persistence of the snow anomaly causes the successively anomalous SST near the key region of the eastern Siberian snow, and then the persistent SST anomaly leads to the local atmospheric circulation anomaly and, hence, the winter air temperature over Northeast China.

  • It is shown that there is a close relationship between preceding-October Siberian snow and following-winter air temperature on the interannual scale. Because the atmospheric circulation anomaly is a direct factor influencing climate change, we first investigate how the Siberian snow influences the northern atmospheric circulation from October to the following winter.

    Figure 8.  Linear regression of October (left) and winter (right) SLP (top; contours) and 500 hPa geopotential height (bottom; contours;) on the October and winter Eurasian snow cover area index for the period 1973-2009, respectively. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence level.

    From the climatology of the monthly mean snow cover area, it is shown that the snow cover area increases rapidly from October to winter (figure omitted). The correlation coefficient is 0.4 between the preceding-October and following-winter snow cover area index, with the significance at the 95% confidence level. This result demonstrates that when the snow cover is larger (smaller) in October, the winter snow also covers a larger (smaller) area (figure omitted). It is indicated that the snow anomaly can last from October to winter. From the distribution of the linear regression coefficients of the October and winter SLP and the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly on the corresponding October and winter snow cover area index, we can see that with greater snow cover, the SLP and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies are all positive in the polar region and negative in the mid-high latitudes. This pattern occurs both in the preceding October and the following winter (Fig. 8). Under the influence of the persistence of the Siberian snow cover anomaly, the northern atmospheric circulation shows relevant anomalies. In addition, based on the distribution of the regression coefficients of the October and winter northern ea index, the response atmospheric circulation on the October snow cover arof the October and winter northern atmospheric circulation to preceding-October snow cover also becomes apparent (figures omitted). The possible physical process is that the persistence of the positive snow anomaly first causes a positive atmospheric pressure anomaly in the polar region, and then a negative pressure anomaly in the mid-high latitudes. This may be because the cooling effect of abnormal snow cover causes a heat source anomaly of the underlying surface and changes the surface thermal conditions and heat exchange from the land to the atmosphere, which can modify the atmospheric temperature and atmospheric general circulation. Thereafter, under the guidance of the prevailing northerly winds in winter, cold air masses undergo widespread movement from the polar region toward the mid-high latitudes, thus favoring the dominance of lower air temperature over Northeast China. Conversely, if the October Siberian snow cover is less, the winter Siberian snow cover is less; thus, the circulation anomaly pattern is just the reverse and the winter air temperature is higher than normal in Northeast China.

  • In addition to the influence of the snow cover on the atmospheric circulation, directly causing the variation in air temperature, we also investigate whether the variation in Siberian snow causes the persistent anomaly of the SST near the key snow region in Eurasia, with the persistent SST anomaly leading to the local atmospheric circulation anomaly and, hence, the winter temperature.

    Figure 9.  Linear regression of the October (top) and winter (bottom) SST (contours) and 850 hPa wind field (vectors) on the SCA_Oct for the period 1973-2009. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence level.

    First, from the distribution of the regression coefficients of the October and following-winter SST anomaly on the October snow cover area index, it is shown that more (less) October Siberian snow is associated with a lasting lower (higher) SST in the northwestern Pacific from October to winter (Fig. 9). This result indicates that the effect of the October Siberian snow cover on the SST variation in the northwestern Pacific could last until winter. As to how the snow-associated atmospheric circulation anomaly induces the SST variation in the northwestern Pacific, it is probably through the anomaly of the sea surface turbulent heat flux. The key SST region is located at the interchange of the northeasterly and northwesterly in the west of the anomalous cyclone, and this would bring the cold and dry air from the continent of Asia into the key SST region, which would increase the difference in temperature and humidity between the sea and the air. Meanwhile, the northerly wind anomaly combined with the northwesterly flow of the climate state cause the local wind velocity to increase, thereby increasing the sensible and latent heat flux transport from the ocean to the atmosphere, which is conducive to the decrease in the SST.

    Next, we investigate whether the key SST in the northwestern Pacific maintains a persistent anomaly, and how the associated local atmospheric circulation changes. The key SST region here is (42°-54°N, 145°-160°E). This region passes the significance test at the 95% confidence level in terms of the distribution of the regression coefficients of the October and following-winter SST anomaly on the October snow cover area index. The definition of the key SST index used in this article is the time series of the SST averaged over the key SST region, considering the weight in different latitudes in the calculation. From the distribution of the regression coefficients of the October and winter SLP and the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly on the corresponding October and winter key SST index, it is shown that the associated atmospheric circulation anomaly is vertically equivalently barotropic (Fig. 10). In addition, when the persistent anomaly of the key SST is on the lower (higher) side, the SLP and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies are significantly negative (positive) around the Aleutian islands and near the coastal region of East Asia, respectively. Furthermore, this anomaly pattern continues to be enhanced from October to winter, which means that when the key SST is lower from October to winter, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are consistently stronger. Under the influence of the northeasterly and northwesterly air flow guided by the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough, respectively, the cold air masses undergo widespread movement from the high latitudes toward Northeast China; thus, it is directly responsible for the dominance of the lower air temperature. If the key SST is higher from October to winter, the circulation anomaly pattern is just the reverse, and the winter air temperature is higher than normal.

    Figure 10.  Linear regression of SLP (top; contours) and 500 hPa geopotential height (bottom; contours) on the October (left) and winter (right) key area SST index for the period 1973-2009. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence level.

    Under the influence of the Siberian snow cover, the key SST in the northwestern Pacific shows a certain degree of continuity from October to winter. It is indicated that the Siberian snow cover can continually influence the key SST variation from October to winter. In addition, the continuity of the key SST anomaly could cause the local atmospheric circulation anomaly and, hence, the winter air temperature over Northeast China. Specifically, more October Siberian snow on the whole keeps the key SST in the northwestern Pacific lower from October to winter. Then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced, ultimately leading to lower winter air temperatures. With less October Siberian snow cover, the key SST remains higher and the corresponding circulation pattern is just the reverse; and finally, the winter air temperature over Northeast China is higher than normal.

5. Summary and discussion
  • This paper addresses the characteristics of the interannual variations of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding-autumn Eurasian snow cover. In addition, the possible physical mechanisms of the influence of October Siberian snow on winter air temperature over Northeast China are investigated.

    First, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the interannual variation of the winter temperature anomaly from 1973 to 2009 are investigated using EOF analysis. It is shown that the largest interannual variability of the winter air temperature over Northeast China lies in the central area. We find that there is a significantly negative correlation coefficient between the October snow index and the winter air temperature over Northeast China. The results also indicate that more (less) October Siberian snow is responsible for the lower (higher) winter air temperature over Northeast China.

    The possible physical mechanisms of the influence on winter air temperature of preceding-October Siberian snow are investigated from two aspects. On the one hand, the persistence of the Siberian snow cover anomaly can lead to higher atmospheric pressure in the polar region and lower pressure in the mid-high latitudes. Thereafter, under the action of the atmospheric pressure gradient forcing from north to south, the conditions are favorable for the dominance of lower air temperature over Northeast China. Conversely, if October Siberian snow cover is less, the atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern is just the reverse and, hence, the winter air temperature over Northeast China is higher. On the other hand, a continuous increase of Siberian snow causes a persistent SST anomaly near the key snow region in Siberia. The persistent SST anomaly then gives rise to a local atmospheric circulation anomaly and, hence, the winter temperature over Northeast China. Specifically, more October Siberian snow cover causes the key SST in the northwestern Pacific to remain lower on the whole from October to winter. Then, the winter Aleutian low and East Asia trough are reinforced, ultimately leading to lower winter air temperature. However, with less October Siberian snow cover, the key SST remains higher, and the associated local atmospheric circulation pattern is just the reverse, resulting in higher winter air temperature over Northeast China.

    In addition, the output data of winter air temperature and October snow water equivalent from historical simulation experiments from 34 CMIP5 models are used to discuss the relationship between October Eurasian snow and winter temperature over Northeast China. The multimodel ensemble analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between the model SWE_Oct and model Tair_DJF is -0.28 during 1973-2004. We then assess the model SWE_Oct and model Tair_DJF of the 34 models, and there are 12 models that pass the reliability test. Furthermore, it is shown that there is significant negative correlation between the model SWE_Oct and model Tair_DJF in 4 models; namely, BCC_CSM1.1 from China, CESM1(FASTCHEM) from America, MPI-ESM-MR from Germany, and NorESM1-ME from Norway. The correlation coefficients are -0.39, -0.41, -0.46 and -0.34, respectively. On the whole, the multimodel ensemble analysis shows that there is negative correlation between October Siberian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China, which is consistent with the results of the statistical analysis. Climate system models have a detailed description of the framework and dynamics of physical processes, and from this perspective they also illustrate the close relationship between October Siberian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China.

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