As mentioned in the introduction, we use tendency errors to approximate the combined effect of different types of model errors. In the following, we present how the model errors are diagnosed in the form of tendency.
The evolution equations for the state vector U can be written as \begin{equation} \left\{ \begin{array}{l} \dfrac{\partial {U}}{\partial t}=F({U}({{x}},t))\\[3mm] {U}|_{t=0}={U}_0 \end{array} \right. \ \ (1)\end{equation} where U0 is the initial state; \((x,t)\in\Omega\times[0,\tau]\), in which Ω is a domain in N-dimensional real space RN and x=(x1,x2,
xN); t is time; and \(\tau<+\infty\) is the final time of evolution of the state variables. F is a nonlinear operator. The future state can be determined by integrating Eq. (1) if the dynamic system equation, Eq. (1), and the initial state are known exactly. The solution to Eq. (1) for the state vector U at time t is given by \begin{equation} \label{eq1} {U}({{x}},t)=M_t({U}_0) \ \ (2)\end{equation} where Mt propagates the initial value to the prediction time t.
Errors relating to both the initial conditions and the model itself exist in a realistic forecast system. To evaluate the impacts of initial condition errors on the forecasts, a common approach is to superimpose an initial perturbation on the initial conditions of the numerical model. Meanwhile, to investigate the effect of model errors on the prediction results, it has been suggested to superimpose a tendency perturbation on the right-hand side of the evolution equation, Eq. (1) (Roads, 1987; Moore and Kleeman, 1999; Barkmeijer et al., 2003; Duan and Zhou, 2013).
A forecast model that describes both initial perturbations and tendency perturbations can be written as \begin{equation} \label{eq2} \left\{ \begin{array}{l} \dfrac{\partial({U}+{u})}{\partial t}=F({U}+{u})+{f}({{x}},t)\\[3mm] {U}+{u}|_{t=0}={U}_0+{u}_0 \end{array} \right. ,\ \ (3) \end{equation} where u is the perturbed state vector, and u0 is a vector of initial perturbations. f is the tendency perturbation. If Mt f is the propagator of Eq. (3), then we have \begin{equation} {U}({{x}},t)+{u}_{I{\rm f}}({{x}},t)=M_{t{\rm f}}({U}_0+{u}_0) \ \ (4)\end{equation} where uI f(x,t) is the departure from the state U(x,t) caused by both the initial perturbations u0 and the tendency perturbation f. From Eq. (2) and Eq. (4), we get uI f(x,t)=Mt f(U0+u0)-Mt(U0). If we set f=0 (the tendency perturbations are equal to zero), Eq. (4) changes to U(x,t)+uI(x,t)=Mt(U0+u0), where uI(x,t) represents the evolution of initial errors u0, and the above problem is referred to as the first type of predictability problem (Mu et al., 2003). For the second type of predictability problem, the initial fields are assumed to be perfect (i.e., u0=0), meaning Eq. (4) changes to U(x,t)+u f(x,t)=Mt f(U0), where u f(x,t) describes the departure from the state U(x,t) caused by the tendency errors f, which may describe a type of model systematic error.
Here, we consider the second type of predictability problem——that is, the initial condition errors are set to zero (u0=0). Subsequently, the discrete form of Eq. (1) can be written as \begin{equation} \label{eq3} \begin{array}{l} \dfrac{{U}({{x}},1)-{U}({{x}},0)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},0))\\[3mm] \dfrac{{U}({{x}},2)-{U}({{x}},1)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},1))\\[3mm] \dfrac{{U}({{x}},3)-{U}({{x}},2)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},2))\\[3mm] \cdots\\ \dfrac{{U}({{x}},t)-{U}({{x}},t-1)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},t-1)) \end{array} . \ \ (5)\end{equation}
Considering the model errors but ignoring the initial condition errors, the discrete form of Eq. (3) can be presented as \begin{equation} \label{eq4} \begin{array}{l} \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},1)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},0)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},0))+{f}({{x}},0)\\[3mm] \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},2)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},1)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},1))+{f}({{x}},1)\\[3mm] \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},3)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},2)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},2))+{f}({{x}},2)\\ \cdots\\ \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t-1)}{\Delta t}=F({U}({{x}},t-1))+{f}({{x}},t-1) \end{array} , \ \ (6)\end{equation} where U f indicates the state vectors in the imperfect model. Summing Eqs. (4) and (5), we respectively obtain \begin{equation} \label{eq5} \dfrac{{U}({{x}},t)\!-\!{U}({{x}},0)}{\Delta t}\!=\!F({U}({{x}},0))\!+\!F({U}({{x}},1))\!+\!\cdots\!+\!F({U}({{x}},t\!-\!1))\ \ (7) \end{equation} and \begin{eqnarray} \label{eq6} \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},0)}{\Delta t}&=&F({U}({{x}},0))+F({U}({{x}},1))+\cdots+\nonumber\\ &&F({U}({{x}},t-1))+{f}({{x}},0)+{f}({{x}},1)+\cdots+\nonumber\\ &&{f}({{x}},t-1) .\ \ (8) \end{eqnarray}
Subtracting Eq. (6) from Eq. (7), we obtain \begin{eqnarray} \label{eq7} &&\dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},0)}{\Delta t}-\dfrac{{U}({{x}},t)-{U}({{x}},0)}{\Delta t}\qquad\nonumber\\ &&=f({{x}},0)+f({{x}},1)+\cdots+f({{x}},t-1) . \ \ (9)\end{eqnarray} Equation (8) can be generalized to \begin{eqnarray} \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t-n)}{\Delta t}-\dfrac{{U}({{x}},t)-{U}({{x}},t-n)}{\Delta t}\\ ={f}({{x}},t-n)+{f}({{x}},t-n+1)+\cdots+{f}({{x}},t-1)\quad (0<n\le t) ,\quad\nonumber\\ \ \ (10)\end{eqnarray} where n is the real number that satisfies 0<n≤ t. Note that when n=t, Eq. (10) is equal to Eq. (8). When n=1, \begin{equation} \label{eq8} \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t-1)}{\Delta t}-\dfrac{{U}({{x}},t)-{U}({{x}},t-1)}{\Delta t}={f}({{x}},t-1) .\ \ (11) \end{equation}
According to Eq. (9), if an accurate forecast or a high-resolution observation U(x,t) is known, we can derive the systematic model errors at each time step t. If the output of the forecast is not known at each time step, e.g., outputs at every 180 steps, according to Eq. (10) we can obtain the cumulative effect of model errors every 180 steps. By defining E(x,t-n) as the cumulative model error every n steps, there is E(x,t-n)=f(x,t-n)+f(x,t-n+1)+
+f(x,t-1). Then, Eq. (10) can be written as \begin{equation} \label{eq9} \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t)-{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t-n)}{\Delta t}-\dfrac{{U}({{x}},t)-{U}({{x}},t-n)}{\Delta t}={E}({{x}},t-n) .\ \ (12) \end{equation}
Also of note is that the initial conditions of the perfect model [Eq. (1)] and the initial conditions of the imperfect model [Eq. (3)] are assumed to be the same. That is, U f(x,0)=U(x,0). Accordingly, Eq. (8) can be written as \begin{equation} \label{eq10} \dfrac{{U}_{\rm f}({{x}},t)-{U}({{x}},t)}{\Delta t}={f}({{x}},0)+{f}({{x}},1)+\cdots+{f}({{x}},t-1) . \ \ (13)\end{equation}
Equation (11) indicates that the differences between the state vector at time t obtained from the imperfect model and the state vector at time t obtained from the perfect model reflect the cumulative effects of model errors from the initial time to time t.
In this study, the GRAPES model is used to forecast 16 TCs that occurred in 2008 and 2009 in the West Pacific. In Part I (Zhou et al., 2016), it is found that the forecasts of these landfalling TCs are poor, and the model error may be the main cause. This indicates that the GRAPES model may have defects. In Part II, we consider GRAPES as an imperfect model, and its forecasts are described as the state vector U f. In Part I, it is demonstrated that the forecasts of the ECMWF model are generally good. Thus, in this study, we take the ECMWF model as the perfect model, and the initial conditions of the ECMWF model are assumed to have no errors. We mark the forecasts of the ECMWF model with the state vector U. According to Eq. (9), by comparing U f and U at each time step, we can obtain the systematic model error [f(x,t-1)] of GRAPES at each time step.
The following describes the design of the GRAPES model and introduces the dataset that supplies the forecasts of the ECMWF model. The horizontal resolution of GRAPES is 1°× 1°, and there are 36 levels in the vertical direction. The physical parameterizations of GRAPES include the WSM6 scheme for microphysics (Hong and Lim, 2006), the RRTMG (Iacono et al., 2008) scheme for longwave and shortwave radiation, the COLM (Dai et al., 2003) scheme for the land surface processes, the MRF (Hong and Pan, 1996) scheme for the planetary boundary layer, and the simple Arakawa-Schubert (Han and Pan, 2011) scheme for the cumulus cloud. The default initial conditions of GRAPES are supplied by the National Centers for Environment Predictions (NCEP) FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis (1°× 1°) interpolated into the GRAPES model. However, in our experiment, the default initial conditions are replaced with the initial conditions of the ECMWF model. The ECMWF model's forecasts of the TCs in 2008 and 2009, as well as the initial conditions of the forecasts, can be downloaded from the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) dataset (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/yotc.html). Because GRAPES is a global model, its resolution cannot be adjusted. Consequently, we download the YOTC dataset with a horizontal resolution of 1°, equivalent to that of GRAPES. The output of the forecasts of the ECMWF model is saved every three hours. Therefore, we save the output of GRAPES every three hours too. The time step of GRAPES is 600 seconds, meaning the output of GRAPES is saved every 18 steps. Therefore, we cannot calculate the model errors of GRAPES at each time step using Eq. (9), but we can calculate the model errors of GRAPES every 18 steps (every three hours) according to Eq. (10). To summarize, what we obtain are the cumulative model errors every 18 steps (every three hours). So, if t indicates the integration time step, then n=18 in Eq. (10); if t indicates the integration time period, then n=3 in Eq. (10).
In the following, the forecasts by GRAPES with initial conditions of the ECMWF model are denoted as GRAPES_EI, and the forecasts by ECMWF with the same initial conditions are denoted as ECMWF_EI. The track data from the Chinese "Typhoon Online" website are considered as the true (observed) values (\hrefwww.typhoon.org.cnwww.typhoon.org.cn; Ying et al., 2014).