-
Figure 2 presents the evolutions of intensity and size, as well as the RMW of the simulated vortex in all experiments. Here, the intensity is defined as the maximum azimuthally averaged tangential wind speed (
$ {V_{\max }} $ ), and the size is measured by the azimuthally averaged R34; both are obtained at 10-m height. The hourly intensity change over a 6-hour period is converted to an equivalent value over 24 hours to determine the development stage. The development stage begins at the time when the intensification rate first exceeds 15 m s–1 d –1 and terminates at the first time when the intensification rate is less than 5 m s–1 d–1 for six consecutive hours, which is similar to Xu and Wang (2018b) and Martinez et al. (2020). The beginning and end times of the development stage in each simulation are marked by the red and black dots, respectively, shown in Fig. 2.Figure 2. Temporal evolutions of (a) the maximum azimuthally averaged tangential wind speed (
$ {V_{\max }} $ , m s–1), (b) the azimuthally averaged gale-force wind radius (R34, km), and (c) the radius of maximum wind (RMW, km) for all experiments. The red and black dots denote the beginning and end times of the development stage of each experiment.Smaller RMW vortices have a shorter spin-up period followed by a faster intensification (Fig. 2a), which is consistent with previous research (Kilroy and Smith, 2017; Xu and Wang, 2018b; Li and Wang, 2021a). Note that the smaller RMW contracts to smaller radii faster than the large RMW (Fig. 2c); compared to the larger RMW vortices, the structure of the smaller RMW vortex changes into the preferable configuration for subsequent intensification faster. Explicitly, the fullness ratio of the vortex [measured by the ratio of TC fullness (
${\rm{TCF}} = 1 - {{{\rm{RMW}}} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{RMW} {R34}}} \right. } {{\rm{R}}34}}$ ) to the critical fullness (${{\rm{TCF}}_0} = 1 - {{17.0} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{17.0} {{V_{max}}}}} \right. } {{V_{{\rm{max}}}}}}$ )] reaches 1.4 (not shown, Guo and Tan, 2022). The RMW also serves as the primary constraint on size expansion. Although R34 appears later as RMW increases due to slow intensification, the size expansion rate increased with RMW, which is consistent with previous research (Kilroy and Smith, 2017).The modulation of the shape parameter
$ b $ on intensification is less pronounced as compared to the RMW and is furthermore dependent on it. Specifically, when the initial RMW is small (i.e., 80 km and 120 km), modifying the$ b $ barely influences the intensification. However, when the initial RMW is large (i.e., 160 km), broadening the wind field in the outer region by decreasing the$ b $ slows down the intensification, especially during the second half of the development stage. The bifurcation point of intensity evolution in the R160 group in Fig. 2a is approximately the time the discrepancy in size expansion occurs in Fig. 2b. It is conceivable that when the inner inertial stability weakens with increasing RMW, the radial vorticity may be blocked from moving inward by the outer convection thus slowing intensification, which will be quantitively examined in section 4. Consistent with previous studies (Chan and Chan, 2014; Martinez et al., 2020), given the same RMW, the size expansion increases with the broadening outer wind field specified by decreasing$ b $ . -
In idealized simulations without external forcing, there is a positive linear correlation between size and intensity during the development stage with a correlation coefficient close to 1 for each vortex, as shown in Table 1. The linear regression coefficient of R34 against
$ {V_{\max }} $ , which shows the degree of size expansion relative to the same intensity increment, can be another key metric to quantify the size–intensity relationship. The higher the regression coefficient is, the more pronounced the size expansion relative to the same intensity increment. Figure 3 displays the regression results for all experiments with the regression coefficients shown in Table 1. The varying size–intensity relationship among the vortices results in a wide range of size for a given intensity, which can account for the weakening of the overall size–intensity correlation if mixing up all experiment records. In particular, the correlation coefficient for all the experiment data in Fig. 3 drops to 0.57 (Table 1), indicating that the large-sample framework can obscure the intrinsic size–intensity correlation in individual vortices.Experiment Correlation coefficient Regression coefficient R80b75 0.95 1.33 R80b50 0.97 1.37 R80b35 0.96 2.01 R120b75 0.97 1.91 R120b50 0.98 2.71 R120b35 0.98 2.76 R160b75 0.98 2.15 R160b50 0.98 3.38 R160b35 0.99 3.67 All 0.56 2.55 Table 1. Linear correlation and regression coefficients between size and intensity in each experiment and all experiment data during the development stage.
Figure 3. Linear regressions of size (R34) against intensity (
$ {V_{\max }} $ ) during the development stage of all experiments. Specific linear correlation and regression coefficients between size and intensity for each experiment are given in Table 1.Different slopes of the regression lines demonstrate that the initial wind field structure can modulate the size–intensity relationship. Overall, either increasing the RMW or decreasing the shape parameter
$ b $ elevates the regression coefficient (Table 1). In comparison, increasing the initial RMW elevates the regression coefficient more evidently than reducing$ b $ . The more pronounced effect of enlarging the RMW is due to its slowing intensification while accelerating expansion (Fig. 2). The elevation by reducing$ b $ is of small magnitude and depends on the RMW. The larger the RMW is, the steeper the regression lines can become with decreasing$ b $ , which is associated with the more noticeable inhibition to intensification as RMW increases. In short, the initial RMW plays the leading role in modulating the evolution of intensity and size, and it is thus the primary factor regulating the size–intensity relationship. Therefore, compared to the wind structure in the outer region, the early RMW may warrant more attention when forecasting R34 changes.
Experiment | Correlation coefficient | Regression coefficient |
R80b75 | 0.95 | 1.33 |
R80b50 | 0.97 | 1.37 |
R80b35 | 0.96 | 2.01 |
R120b75 | 0.97 | 1.91 |
R120b50 | 0.98 | 2.71 |
R120b35 | 0.98 | 2.76 |
R160b75 | 0.98 | 2.15 |
R160b50 | 0.98 | 3.38 |
R160b35 | 0.99 | 3.67 |
All | 0.56 | 2.55 |