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Volume 14 Issue 1

Jan.  1997

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 1997 >  14(1): 23-40

Notes on Extended-Range Atmospheric Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

  • 1.

    Forecast Division, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, 100, Japan,Administration Division, Climate and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, 100, Japan,c / o Department of Earth and Planetary Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113, Japan


doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0040-y

  • We examined the characteristic feature and predictability of low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter (January and February) by using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In the discussion, we used the EOFs for geostrophic zonal wind (Uznl) and the height deviation from the zonal mean (Zeddy). The set of EOFs for Uznl and Zeddy was denoted as Uznl-1. Uznl-2, …, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2…, respectively. We used the data samples of 396 pentads derived from 33 years of NMC, ECMWF and JMA analyses, from January 1963 to 1995. From the calculated scores for Uznl-1, Uznl-2, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2 and so on we found that Uznl-1 and Zeddy-1 were statistically stable and their scores were more persistent than those of the other EOFs. A close relationship existed between the scores of Uznl-1 and those of Zeddy-1 30-day forecast experiments were carried out with the medium resolution version of JMA global spectral model for 20 cases in January and February for the period of 1984-1992. Results showed that Zeddy-1 was more predicta?ble than the other EOFs for Zeddy Considering these results, we argued that prediction of the Zeddy-1 was to be one of the main target of extended range forecasting
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 January 1997
    Manuscript revised: 10 January 1997
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Notes on Extended-Range Atmospheric Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

    • 1. Forecast Division, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, 100, Japan,Administration Division, Climate and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, 100, Japan,c / o Department of Earth and Planetary Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113, Japan
    • Manuscript received: 1997-01-10
    • Manuscript revised: 1997-01-10

    Abstract: We examined the characteristic feature and predictability of low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter (January and February) by using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In the discussion, we used the EOFs for geostrophic zonal wind (Uznl) and the height deviation from the zonal mean (Zeddy). The set of EOFs for Uznl and Zeddy was denoted as Uznl-1. Uznl-2, …, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2…, respectively. We used the data samples of 396 pentads derived from 33 years of NMC, ECMWF and JMA analyses, from January 1963 to 1995. From the calculated scores for Uznl-1, Uznl-2, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2 and so on we found that Uznl-1 and Zeddy-1 were statistically stable and their scores were more persistent than those of the other EOFs. A close relationship existed between the scores of Uznl-1 and those of Zeddy-1 30-day forecast experiments were carried out with the medium resolution version of JMA global spectral model for 20 cases in January and February for the period of 1984-1992. Results showed that Zeddy-1 was more predicta?ble than the other EOFs for Zeddy Considering these results, we argued that prediction of the Zeddy-1 was to be one of the main target of extended range forecasting

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