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Volume 14 Issue 4

Oct.  1997

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 1997 >  14(4): 554-562

The Interannual Variability and Predictability in a Global Climate Model

  • 1.

    LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080


doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0073-2

  • The interannual variabilities of the climatological simulation (V1) and the AMIP (Atmospheric Model intercomparison Project) simulation (V2) by the IAP 9-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model are studied and discussed in this paper. Based on the analysis of ratio of variability (R) of above two simulations the predictability of the model on the interannual climate variation are studied as well. Results show that V2 is bigger than V1 generally and V2 is more comparable to the real variability of the atmosphere, the major difference of VI and V2 is in the tropics, for temperature and geopotential height the predictability is higher in the tropics while in the extra-tropics there is almost no predictability and the predictability is bigger in higher level thin in lower level. The predictability for precipitation is generally low in the globe, and generally the predictability is high in the tropical eastern Pacific for the lower level. This study suggests that the possible way of increasing the model predictability is the improvement of land surface process modelling and the inclusion of the interannual variations of the land surface conditions (snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, etc.) as the forcing factor for climate modelling and prediction.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 October 1997
    Manuscript revised: 10 October 1997
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    The Interannual Variability and Predictability in a Global Climate Model

    • 1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080
    • Manuscript received: 1997-10-10
    • Manuscript revised: 1997-10-10

    Abstract: The interannual variabilities of the climatological simulation (V1) and the AMIP (Atmospheric Model intercomparison Project) simulation (V2) by the IAP 9-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model are studied and discussed in this paper. Based on the analysis of ratio of variability (R) of above two simulations the predictability of the model on the interannual climate variation are studied as well. Results show that V2 is bigger than V1 generally and V2 is more comparable to the real variability of the atmosphere, the major difference of VI and V2 is in the tropics, for temperature and geopotential height the predictability is higher in the tropics while in the extra-tropics there is almost no predictability and the predictability is bigger in higher level thin in lower level. The predictability for precipitation is generally low in the globe, and generally the predictability is high in the tropical eastern Pacific for the lower level. This study suggests that the possible way of increasing the model predictability is the improvement of land surface process modelling and the inclusion of the interannual variations of the land surface conditions (snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, etc.) as the forcing factor for climate modelling and prediction.

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