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Volume 16 Issue 3

Jul.  1999

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 1999 >  16(3): 361-366

A Preliminary Study on the Polar Climate Predictability

  • 1.

    LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029


doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0015-2

  • Studies have revealed that predictability of the atmospheric general circulation is generally high in the tropics throughout the year and that there is some predictability in the Northern extra-tropical winter at-mospheric circulation through some patterns of tele connection. Predictability of the general circulation at the polar regions has still remained as a ‘cold’ topic and little has been known about this question. Based on a preliminary study on the predictability by using the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) general circulation model, it is found that the SST-related predictability of the Southern winter lower atmospheric circulation in Antarctica is reasonably high and that there is some predictability in the 500 hPa and 200 hPa geopotential height fields over Europe and the Okhotsk Sea region during the Northern winter. It is sug-gested that more researches on this issue based on data analysis and model simulations are needed to obtain better understanding.
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    [2] Vladimir A. Lobanov, 2001: Empirical-Statistical Methodology and Methods for Modeling and Forecasting of Climate Variability of Different Temporal Scales, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 844-863.
    [3] Yong-Hoon YOUN, 2005: The Climate Variabilities of Air Temperature Around the Korean Peninsula, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 575-584.  doi: 10.1007/BF02918489
    [4] CAO Jian, Bin WANG, Baoqiang XIANG, Juan LI, WU Tianjie, Xiouhua FU, WU Liguang, MIN Jinzhong, 2015: Major Modes of Short-Term Climate Variability in the Newly Developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 585-600.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4200-6
    [5] LI Gen, REN Baohua, YANG Chengyun, ZHENG Jianqiu, 2010: Indices of El Nino and El Nino Modoki: An improved El Nino Modoki index, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 1210-1220.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9173-5
    [6] Li'an Xie, Leonard J.Pietrafesa, Kejian Wu, 2002: Interannual and Decadal Variability of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Southeast Coastal States of the United States, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 677-686.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0007-y
    [7] Zhang Renhe, Zhao Gang, Tan Yanke, 2001: Meridional Wind Stress Anomalies over Tropical Pacific and the Onset of El Nino. Part Ⅰ: Data Analysis, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 467-480.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0038-9
    [8] YUAN Yuan, ZHOU Wen, YANG Hui, LI Chongyin, 2008: Warming in the Northwestern Indian Ocean Associated with the El Ni\~no Event, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 246-252.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0246-7
    [9] Zhang Renhe, Zhao Gang, 2001: Meridional Wind Stress Anomalies over the Tropical Pacific and the Onset of El Ni?o Part Ⅱ: Dynamical Analysis, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 1053-1065.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0022-4
    [10] Igor Oliveira RIBEIRO, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira de SOUZA, Rita Valèria ANDREOLI, Mary Toshie KAYANO, Patrícia dos Santos COSTA, 2016: Spatiotemporal Variability of Methane over the Amazon from Satellite Observations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 852-864.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-5138-7
    [11] Lu Riyu, Chan-Su Ryu, Buwen Dong, 2002: Associations between the Western North Pacific Monsoon and the South China Sea Monsoon, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 12-24.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0030-z
    [12] Chunzai Wang, 2001: On the ENSO Mechanisms, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 674-691.
    [13] Enda ZHU, Xing YUAN, 2021: Global Freshwater Storage Capability across Time Scales in the GRACE Satellite Era, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 905-917.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-0222-z
    [14] Chunzai WANG, Yulong YAO, Haili WANG, Xiubao SUN, Jiayu ZHENG, 2021: The 2020 Summer Floods and 2020/21 Winter Extreme Cold Surges in China and the 2020 Typhoon Season in the Western North Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 896-904.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1094-y
    [15] Chen Lieting, Fan Zhen, 1993: The Southern Oscillation / Northern Oscillation Cycle Associated with Sea Surface Temperature in the Equatorial Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 10, 353-364.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658141
    [16] Ni Yunqi, Lin Wuyin, Wang Wanqiu, Yuan Chongguang, Zhang Qin, 1993: Numerical Study for Potential Predictability of Short-Term Anomalous Climate Change Caused by El Nino, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 10, 1-10.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656949
    [17] BAO Ming, HAN Rongqing, 2009: Delayed Impacts of the El Nino Episodes in the Central Pacific on the Summertime Climate Anomalies of Eastern China in 2003 and 2007, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 553-563.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0553-7
    [18] WangHuijun, Xue Feng, Bi Xunqiang, 1997: The Interannual Variability and Predictability in a Global Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 14, 554-562.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0073-2
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 July 1999
    Manuscript revised: 10 July 1999
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    A Preliminary Study on the Polar Climate Predictability

    • 1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
    • Manuscript received: 1999-07-10
    • Manuscript revised: 1999-07-10

    Abstract: Studies have revealed that predictability of the atmospheric general circulation is generally high in the tropics throughout the year and that there is some predictability in the Northern extra-tropical winter at-mospheric circulation through some patterns of tele connection. Predictability of the general circulation at the polar regions has still remained as a ‘cold’ topic and little has been known about this question. Based on a preliminary study on the predictability by using the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) general circulation model, it is found that the SST-related predictability of the Southern winter lower atmospheric circulation in Antarctica is reasonably high and that there is some predictability in the 500 hPa and 200 hPa geopotential height fields over Europe and the Okhotsk Sea region during the Northern winter. It is sug-gested that more researches on this issue based on data analysis and model simulations are needed to obtain better understanding.

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