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Volume 18 Issue 5

Sep.  2001

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2001 >  18(5): 701-709

Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model

  • 1.

    Mathematics and Physics College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science 46 Baishiqiaolu, Beijing 100081,Department of Meteorological Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Department of Meteorological Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000

  • In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion is an irreversible process, a memory function which can recall the observation data in the past is introduced, moreover, a special concept of self-memorization of the atmospheric motion is proposed, and a so-called self-memorization equation of the atmospheric motion has been derived. Based on the self-memorization principle, a numerical model for decadal forecast is estab lished by means of the thermodynamic equation and the precipitation equation. The verification scores of the hindcasts of the model in the period from 1 to 12 years are much higher than that of monthly weather forecasts at present.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 September 2001
    Manuscript revised: 10 September 2001
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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    Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model

    • 1. Mathematics and Physics College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science 46 Baishiqiaolu, Beijing 100081,Department of Meteorological Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Department of Meteorological Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000
    • Manuscript received: 2001-09-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2001-09-10

    Abstract: In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion is an irreversible process, a memory function which can recall the observation data in the past is introduced, moreover, a special concept of self-memorization of the atmospheric motion is proposed, and a so-called self-memorization equation of the atmospheric motion has been derived. Based on the self-memorization principle, a numerical model for decadal forecast is estab lished by means of the thermodynamic equation and the precipitation equation. The verification scores of the hindcasts of the model in the period from 1 to 12 years are much higher than that of monthly weather forecasts at present.

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