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苗春生, 徐方姝, 王坚红, 余钟奇, 高义梅, 张旭. 两种温室气体排放情景下中国汛期江淮暴雨低涡特征研究[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(2): 257-270. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1505.15109
引用本文: 苗春生, 徐方姝, 王坚红, 余钟奇, 高义梅, 张旭. 两种温室气体排放情景下中国汛期江淮暴雨低涡特征研究[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(2): 257-270. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1505.15109
MIAO Chunsheng, XU Fangshu, WANG Jianhong, YU Zhongqi, GAO Yimei, ZHANG Xu. Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Vortexes during the Flood Season in Jiang-Huai Valley under Two Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(2): 257-270. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1505.15109
Citation: MIAO Chunsheng, XU Fangshu, WANG Jianhong, YU Zhongqi, GAO Yimei, ZHANG Xu. Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Vortexes during the Flood Season in Jiang-Huai Valley under Two Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(2): 257-270. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1505.15109

两种温室气体排放情景下中国汛期江淮暴雨低涡特征研究

Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Vortexes during the Flood Season in Jiang-Huai Valley under Two Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

  • 摘要: 本文基于一个水平分辨率为50 km的区域气候模式RegCM4(Regional Climate Model,version 4.0)的模拟与预估结果,对我国汛期江淮暴雨低涡在气候变化背景下的统计特征与合成结构进行分析,进一步对两种温室排放情景下未来中国汛期的江淮暴雨低涡特征进行预估。结果表明:RegCM4模式对环境要素及低涡都具有一定的模拟能力,低涡的伸展高度、生命期及暴雨位置模拟结果与观测较为接近,但模拟的低涡个数、最大暖区高度以及温、湿要素分布均比实际略偏低,而风速和低涡的强度模拟则偏强;在未来两种温室排放情景预估方面, RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways,简称RCP)典型浓度排放情景下,暴雨低涡数量比例减少,强度减弱,但低涡发展高度仍以850 hPa为主,生命期多为2 d以内,低涡雨区分布及最大暖区高度均与历史时段相近;RCP8.5情景下,暴雨低涡比例明显大于RCP4.5情景,低涡发展高度以700 hPa为主,生命期达3 d的增多,强度增强,最大暖区厚度范围显著伸展。两种情景下均有低涡中温度锋区减弱,而湿度锋区增强,但RCP8.5情景减弱与增强更显著,显示更高的温室气体排放将导致未来出现更强的暴雨低涡,造成伴随暴雨的低涡灾害性天气的增加,因此应进一步深化对低涡暴雨灾害性天气发展趋势的研究。

     

    Abstract: The aim of this study was to analyze the statistical and structure evolutive characteristics of heavy rainfall vortexes during the flood season in Jiang-Huai valley, China, against the background of climate change, and to provide projections under two emission scenarios for the period 2020-2030, by using the regional climate model RegCM4(Regional Climate Model, version 4.0) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km.The results showed that RegCM4 can capture the environmental aspects and characteristics of this vortex type reasonably well.The simulated outputs were similar to reality in several ways, including vertical development height, lifetime, and the relative rainstorm position of the vortex.However, the simulated results were lower with respects to the number and the warmest section height of the vortex, and the background temperature and humidity, while the intensity of the vortex and velocity were higher.In terms of projection for the period 2020-2030, under the RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario, the proportion of vortexes with rainstorms was shown to decrease;the vertical development height of the vortex was mainly at 850 hPa;and the life span was mostly within 2 days.The distribution of heavy rainfall and the warmest zone height were close to those in the historical period, but the intensity was weaker.Meanwhile, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the percentage of vortexes with rainstorms was projected to be greater than that under the RCP4.5 scenario;the vertical development height of the vortex was mainly at 700 hPa;the vortexes with the life span of 3 days increased;the vortex intensity enhanced;and the thickness of the warmest zone extended significantly.The moisture fronts in the vortex strengthened, but temperature fronts weakened.The study reveals that more severe vortex precipitation may occur in the future under higher greenhouse gas emissions.Further research is therefore needed on the development trends of low vortexes with severe rainfall.

     

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