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李少英, 张述文, 毛伏平, 李彦霖. 采用不同样本集合同化地面观测对一次飑线过程的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(2): 236-250. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1606.15298
引用本文: 李少英, 张述文, 毛伏平, 李彦霖. 采用不同样本集合同化地面观测对一次飑线过程的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(2): 236-250. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1606.15298
Shaoying LI, Shuwen ZHANG, Fuping MAO, Yanlin LI. Influence of Assimilating Surface Observations on a Squall Line with Different Ensembles[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(2): 236-250. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1606.15298
Citation: Shaoying LI, Shuwen ZHANG, Fuping MAO, Yanlin LI. Influence of Assimilating Surface Observations on a Squall Line with Different Ensembles[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(2): 236-250. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1606.15298

采用不同样本集合同化地面观测对一次飑线过程的影响

Influence of Assimilating Surface Observations on a Squall Line with Different Ensembles

  • 摘要: 针对夏季黄淮地区一次飑线过程,利用WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) 模式及其Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR同化系统,考察不同生成方案的样本对同化地面观测的影响。集合样本创建方式包括3类:扰动初始背景场的方案 (RCV)、使用不同的物理参数化方案 (PPMP) 以及前两者集成方案 (BLE)。基于增量场分析,同化地面观测主要调整850 hPa以下水平风和水汽混合比的空间结构,其中RCV方案侧重于改变水平风的空间分布,PPMP方案侧重于改变水汽混合比的空间结构,BLE方案兼具二者特征。同化地面观测可以间接改善6 h降水预报,其中PPMP试验的降水预报最好,尤其是对降水位置和强度的预报。对比雷达回波观测,RCV试验和BLE试验对弓状回波模拟得较好,BLE试验的模拟较多体现RCV特征。PPMP试验和RCV试验还可改变冷池的位置和强度,同时影响飑线出现和消亡时间,相对而言,PPMP试验影响更大。

     

    Abstract: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the hybrid ETKF-3DVAR (ensemble transform Kalman filter-three-dimensional variational data assimilation) data assimilation system is used to investigate the impact of different ensemble generation schemes on a squall line forecast in the Huanghe-Huaihe region in the summer by assimilating the surface observations. Ensembles are created in three different ways-by using the different initial ensemble samples (RCV), by using different model physical process schemes (PPMP), and by combining the first two ensembles (BLE). Based on the increments of model states, assimilating the surface observations mainly adjusts the spatial structures of wind and water vapor mixing ratio below the level of 850 hPa; the RCV scheme mainly updates the wind distribution, the PPMP scheme updates the water vapor mixing ratio, and the BLE scheme has the characteristics of both RCV and PPMP. Assimilating surface observations can also improve 6-h precipitation forecasts, and the PPMP scheme can give a relatively better performance compared to PPMP and BLE, especially for the prediction of rainfall location and intensity. RCV and BLE schemes present a better simulation for the bow echo, and the performance with BLE is similar to that with RCV. PPMP and RCV schemes can adjust the position and intensity of the cold pool, and also influence the times of appearance and disappearance of the squall line. Generally, PPMP scheme has a greater impact on the squall line than RCV and BLE.

     

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