长江中下游汛期长期旱涝预报与500毫巴环流型及其变化

李鸿洲, 梁佩婰, 梁幼林. 长江中下游汛期长期旱涝预报与500毫巴环流型及其变化[J]. 大气科学, 1977, 1(3): 180-187. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1977.03.03

引用本文:

李鸿洲, 梁佩婰, 梁幼林. 长江中下游汛期长期旱涝预报与500毫巴环流型及其变化[J]. 大气科学, 1977, 1(3): 180-187. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1977.03.03

Li Hong-Zhou, Liang Pei-Dian, Liang You-Lin. The long-range forecasts of the drought and flood in the middle and lower Yangtze during the rainy season and the circulation patterns at 500 mb and its changes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1977, 1(3): 180-187. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1977.03.03

Citation:

Li Hong-Zhou, Liang Pei-Dian, Liang You-Lin. The long-range forecasts of the drought and flood in the middle and lower Yangtze during the rainy season and the circulation patterns at 500 mb and its changes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1977, 1(3): 180-187. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1977.03.03

长江中下游汛期长期旱涝预报与500毫巴环流型及其变化

The long-range forecasts of the drought and flood in the middle and lower Yangtze during the rainy season and the circulation patterns at 500 mb and its changes

摘要: 本文根据1951—1974年,共24年的500毫巴月平均资料,对长江中、下游汛期旱、涝现象作了环流的对比分析,揭示了长江中、下游汛期旱、涝环流的长期演变的特征。它们之间从前冬就表现有载然不同的环流特征和演变过程。本文还讨论了极地涡旋,50°—80°N间的欧亚阻塞高压,南支槽,西太平洋副高脊以及东亚大槽等系统的分布及演变过程。给出了旱年、涝年的环流模式,提出了汛期旱、涝长期预报指标,并据此做了1976年汛期降水的长期预报试验。

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