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石英, 高学杰. 温室效应对我国东部地区气候影响的高分辨率数值试验[J]. 大气科学, 2008, 32(5): 1006-1018. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.05.02
引用本文: 石英, 高学杰. 温室效应对我国东部地区气候影响的高分辨率数值试验[J]. 大气科学, 2008, 32(5): 1006-1018. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.05.02
SHI Ying, GAO Xuejie. Influence of Greenhouse Effect on Eastern China Climate Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2008, 32(5): 1006-1018. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.05.02
Citation: SHI Ying, GAO Xuejie. Influence of Greenhouse Effect on Eastern China Climate Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2008, 32(5): 1006-1018. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.05.02

温室效应对我国东部地区气候影响的高分辨率数值试验

Influence of Greenhouse Effect on Eastern China Climate Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model

  • 摘要: 使用RegCM3区域气候模式,单向嵌套NASA/NCAR 的全球环流模式FvGCM的输出结果,对中国东部地区进行了在实际温室气体浓度下当代1961~1990年和在IPCC A2温室气体排放情景下21世纪末期2071~2100年各30年时间长度,水平分辨率为20 km的气候变化模拟试验。首先分析全球和区域模式对中国东部地区当代气候的模拟情况,结果表明全球模式对中国东部地区气温的总体分布型模拟较好,但存在冷偏差,区域模式在对这个冷偏差有所纠正的同时,提供了气温地理分布更详细的信息。全球模式模拟的年降水中心位于长江流域,与观测差别较大,区域模式对此同样也有改进,降水高值区主要位于区域南部,并表现出较强的地形强迫特征。区域模式的模拟结果还表明,至21世纪末期,在温室效应作用下,中国东部的气温将明显升高,年平均气温的升高值在2.7~4.0℃之间,其中北部升温大于南部,冬季升温大于夏季。冬季升温表现出明显的随纬度增加而增加的分布型。模拟区域内年平均降水将增加,增加值一般在10%以上,部分地区达到30%。降水增加在夏季较明显,区域内以普遍增加为主,冬季降水自山东半岛至湖南地区将减少,其他地区增加。此外,对夏季高温日数和冬季低温日数及年平均大雨日数的变化也进行了分析。

     

    Abstract: This study analyses the influence of greenhouse warming on eastern China climate simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. The regional model RegCM3 is nested in one-way mode within a NASA/NCAR finite volume element AGCM (FvGCM). Two sets of multi-decadal simulations at 20-km grid spacing for present day (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100, IPCC A2 emission scenario) are conducted. Firstly the FvGCM and RegCM3s simulations of present climate in eastern China are analyzed. Results show that FvGCM is able to reproduce some basic features of the observed mean surface climate, including surface air temperature and precipitation, over eastern China. Comparing with FvGCM, results from RegCM3 simulations show that the high resolution regional model further improves the simulations of both surface air temperature and precipitation climatologies. It can reproduce more detailed structures of surface temperature distribution and reduce, in some extent, cold bias in the FvGCM simulations. Furthermore, it reveals that the observed heavy precipitation center in southeastern China is better simulated by RegCM3 although it may overestimate rainfall induced by topographic forcing. FvGCM gives a wrong location of the high rainfall center with its heavy rainfall belt over the Yangtze River basin.  Significant warming is simulated by RegCM3 at the end of the 21st century under IPCC A2 scenario. The warming of annual temperature ranges from 2.7℃ to 4.2℃, with greater warming in the north of the domain. Greater warming is also simulated in winter with a strong latitudinal gradient. A higher rise of the minimum temperature than the maximum temperature is simulated in the winter half of the year, which leads to a decrease in temperature diurnal variation. This feature is more significant in the northern part of the domain. Increase in the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature may cause more hot spell days in summer and less cold spell days in winter, as well as warmer winter and warmer night. General increase in annual mean precipitation is simulated by RegCM3, in a range of less than 10% to exceeding 30%. Higher increase is found to the north of the Yellow River and in South China. While a reduction of precipitation is found in broad areas in winter, in summer an increase in rainfall dominates the regions. Significant increase in summer precipitation can be found along the Yangtze River, in the southern part of Hebei Province and in South China. Increase of heavy precipitation days are simulated in the whole domain, with substantial increase found in the west and the south of Shanxi Province, the south of Hebei Province and in the north of Fujian Province, the west of Hunan Province. This can consequently lead to a higher frequency of floods in the future.

     

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