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邵月红, 张万昌, 刘永和, 等. 沂沭河流域不同多普勒雷达降水量估算方法的效果评估[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(5): 971-980. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.08
引用本文: 邵月红, 张万昌, 刘永和, 等. 沂沭河流域不同多普勒雷达降水量估算方法的效果评估[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(5): 971-980. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.08
SHAO Yuehong, ZHANG Wanchang, LIU Yonghe, et al. Evaluation of the Precision of Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimation Using Different Algorithms in the Yishu River Watershed[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(5): 971-980. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.08
Citation: SHAO Yuehong, ZHANG Wanchang, LIU Yonghe, et al. Evaluation of the Precision of Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimation Using Different Algorithms in the Yishu River Watershed[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(5): 971-980. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.08

沂沭河流域不同多普勒雷达降水量估算方法的效果评估

Evaluation of the Precision of Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimation Using Different Algorithms in the Yishu River Watershed

  • 摘要: 利用2005年和2006年九次大型降雨过程的多普勒雷达体扫复合仰角的回波强度资料及相应的雨量计观测资料, 通过改进的最佳窗概率配对法、 遗传算法和最优化法分别得到沂沭河流域多普勒雷达降水Z-R关系, 对不同算法的优化结果和降水误差进行比较分析及验证, 并将最优的Z-R关系用于估算区域降水量。同时利用雨量计资料采用卡尔曼滤波、 变分等6种估测方法进行面雨量估算的校正, 并对上述几种方法的估测精度进行比较分析。结果表明: 将地面雨量计观测值作为真值, 在站点降水的估测上, 卡尔曼最优插值法和卡尔曼变分法估测的降水量计算精度最高, 最优插值法和变分法次之, 卡尔曼滤波法和平均校准法的计算精度要低于最优插值和变分法, Z-R关系法的精度最低。在区域面降水量的估测上, 雷达探测到的降水量的分布形势与雨量计得到的降水场比较一致, 但中心的降水强度上有较大的偏差。Z-R关系法的平均相对误差为70.51%。经过雷达雨量计联合校正后, 使估算精度明显提高, 其中卡尔曼最优法计算精度最高。平均校准法、卡尔曼滤波法、最优插值法、变分法、卡尔曼最优法和卡尔曼变分法的平均相对误差分别为: 16.55%、16.27%、13.44%、13.86%、13.16%、13.51%。

     

    Abstract: By means of the Doppler radar measurements and automatic precipitation station data collected during nine precipitation processes in the Yishu River watershed in 2005 and 2006, the improved window probability matching method (WPMM), improved genetic algorithm (IGA) and the optimization method (OM) are employed to determine the relationship between radar echo intensity (Z) and precipitation intensity (R). The evaluation of the Z-R relation from WPMM, IGA and OM is analyzed and compared with that of the empirical Z-R relation. The optimum Z-R relation is used to estimate the regional precipitation. The regional precipitation is estimated and quantitatively compared with those observed by automatic precipitation observatories of the region by using average calibration, Kalman filter, optimum interpolation, variation method, optimum Kalman filter (combine Kalman filter with optimum interpolation) and variation Kalman filter (combine Kalman filter with variation method). The results suggest that if the value of ground raingauge is taken as truth, algorithms of the optimum Kalman filter and the variation Kalman filter perform best and excess the algorithm of the least root mean square errors, the Z-R relation method is superior than the largest root mean square errors algorithm, the precision of optimum interpolation and variation method is higher than that of average calibration and Kalman filter. For regional rainfall estimation, it is found that the spatial rainfall distributions are in good agreement with those interpolated by raingauge network measured precipitation to a large extent, however, the intense rainfall centers exhibit different patterns compared with those interpolated with raingauge network measurements, the algorithm of Z-R relation yields the largest mean relative error of about 70.51% among the selected algorithms. After adjustments are made to the radar estimated precipitation by using in site measurements with the automatic raingauge networks, radar rainfall estimations were improved dramatically on precision either in the spatial distribution or in the location of intense precipitation centers, the mean relative errors of the estimated regional rainfall by each above-mentioned algorithm adjusted respectively with in site raingauge measurements are evidently less than that by only Z-R relation algorithm being employed. The mean relative error for algorithm of the average calibration, Kalman filter, variation method, optimum interpolation, optimum Kalman filter and variation Kalman filter being about 16.55%, 16.27%, 13.44%, 13.86%, 13.16%, 13.51%, respectively. The optimum Kalman filter performs best, can truly reflect the precipitation status over the ground surface, and might be used to estimate the regional precipitation for the study region.

     

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