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魏凤英, 黄嘉佑. 大气环流降尺度因子在中国东部夏季降水预测中的作用[J]. 大气科学, 2010, 34(1): 202-212. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.01.19
引用本文: 魏凤英, 黄嘉佑. 大气环流降尺度因子在中国东部夏季降水预测中的作用[J]. 大气科学, 2010, 34(1): 202-212. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.01.19
WEI Fengying, HUANG Jiayou. A Study of Downscaling Factors of Atmospheric Circulations in the Prediction Model of Summer Precipitation in Eastern China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 34(1): 202-212. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.01.19
Citation: WEI Fengying, HUANG Jiayou. A Study of Downscaling Factors of Atmospheric Circulations in the Prediction Model of Summer Precipitation in Eastern China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 34(1): 202-212. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.01.19

大气环流降尺度因子在中国东部夏季降水预测中的作用

A Study of Downscaling Factors of Atmospheric Circulations in the Prediction Model of Summer Precipitation in Eastern China

  • 摘要: 本文将1951~2007年500 hPa 格点资料构成的表征区域系统的环流特征量作为降尺度因子, 使用降尺度技术和偏最小二乘回归方法, 以环流特征量作为因子场, 建立逐月的我国东部夏季降水量的预报模型。从最佳预报模型中的环流特征量出现频率的角度, 对大气环流降尺度因子在我国东部夏季降水预测中的作用进行分析研究。结果表明, 在夏季各个月份的预报模型中, 出现频率表现最突出的因子是北半球和东半球副高系统。此外, 东亚地区副高系统也起十分重要的作用, 特别是西太平洋副高强度和面积指数。

     

    Abstract: The factors of atmospheric circulations in the prediction model, which is built by the downscaling techniques and the partial least square regression for summer precipitation in eastern China, are studied by using the monthly data of the 74 characteristic quantities of the northern hemispheric circulations, and the precipitation at 160 stations over eastern China. The study is based on the occurrence frequency of the characteristic quantity in the best prediction model. The results show that the factors with higher occurrence frequency are the subtropical high systems in the Northern Hemisphere and the Eastern Hemisphere. Next, the subtropical high systems in East Asia also play very important roles, especially the strength and area index of the subtropical high in the western Pacific.

     

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