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江滢, 罗勇, 赵宗慈. 全球气候模式对未来中国风速变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2010, 34(2): 323-336. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.02.07
引用本文: 江滢, 罗勇, 赵宗慈. 全球气候模式对未来中国风速变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2010, 34(2): 323-336. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.02.07
JIANG Ying, LUO Yong, ZHAO Zongci. Projection of Wind Speed Changes in China in the 21st Century by Climate Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 34(2): 323-336. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.02.07
Citation: JIANG Ying, LUO Yong, ZHAO Zongci. Projection of Wind Speed Changes in China in the 21st Century by Climate Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 34(2): 323-336. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2010.02.07

全球气候模式对未来中国风速变化预估

Projection of Wind Speed Changes in China in the 21st Century by Climate Models

  • 摘要: 利用世界气候研究计划之第三次耦合模式比较计划 (WCRP/CMIP3) 提供的, 参加IPCC AR4的19个气候模式和国家气候中心为IPCC第五次报告研发的新一代气候模式 (BCC_CSM1.0.1) 及模式集成, 考虑高排放 (A2)、 中等排放 (A1B) 和低排放 (B1) 三种人类排放情景, 预估21世纪中国近地层 (离地10 m) 风速变化。预估结果表明: (1) 21世纪全国平均的年平均风速呈微弱的减小趋势, 且随着预估情景人类排放的增加, 中国年平均风速减小趋势越显著。 (2) 冬季 (夏季) 全国平均风速呈减小 (增大) 趋势, 人类排放量越多, 冬季 (夏季) 风速减小 (增加) 程度越大。21世纪我国风速夏季 (冬季) 增大 (减小) 与全球变暖的背景下未来亚洲夏季风 (冬季风) 增强 (减弱) 有一定关系。 (3) 与20世纪末期 (1980~1999年) 相比, 21世纪初期 (2011~2030年) 中国区域年平均风速A2情景下略偏小, A1B和B1情景下年平均风速无明显变化; 21世纪中期 (2046~2065年) 和后期 (2080~2099年), 三种排放情景下中国年平均风速均比20世纪末期风速小。 (4) 21世纪初期、 中期和后期均表现为冬季 (夏季) 平均风速比20世纪末期冬季 (夏季) 平均小 (大)。 (5) 夏季中国中北部和东北地区风速偏大, 其余地区风速无明显变化或略偏小; 冬季除了东北北部和西藏东南部外, 中国大部地区风速偏小。绝大部分地区超过50%模式一致地预估上述风速变化形式, 具有一定的可信度。

     

    Abstract: 19 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report) climate models with the human emission of SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2, A1B and B1 have been employed to project the annual, seasonal and monthly wind speeds over the three sub-regions of China and the entire China for 2000-2099. The study also adds the projections of a new coupling climate model, BCC_CSM1.0.1, which was developed for IPCC AR5. Therefore, 20 climate models have been used in this research. As projected by 20 climate models with SRES A2, A1B, and B1, (1) the annual mean wind speeds in China for the 21st century decrease slightly, especially for SRES A2.(2) Among the four seasons, the wind speeds in winter decrease in the whole China and the three sub-regions. It is because the winter monsoon over East Asia weakens due to the global warming. The wind speed in summer over most of China increases as projected by a number of climate models. It is associated with the stronger summer monsoon over East Asia in the 21st century as projected by the climate models with SRES scenarios.(3) Compared with the model simulations for 1980-1999, the annual mean wind speeds during 2011-2030 decrease slightly for SRES A2 and do not change for SRES A1B and B1, respectively. The wind speeds during 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 for the three scenarios decrease more obviously than 1980-1999 and 2011-2030, respectively.(4) The wind speeds in winter (summer) for the three periods decrease (increase) relative to 1980-1999.(5) The geographical distributions of wind speed changes are different in winter and summer in comparison with 1980-1999. In summer, the increasing wind speeds are found over northeastern, northern, and central China. There are not obvious changes in other regions. In winter, the decreasing wind speeds over most of China are noticed, except for northern Northeast China and southeastern Tibet. More than 50% of the models project the patterns of wind changes conformably. It has a certain reliability.

     

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