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徐亚钦, 翟国庆, 黄旋旋, 等. 利用雷达和自动站资料综合分析风暴移动和发展规律[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(1): 134-146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.01.11
引用本文: 徐亚钦, 翟国庆, 黄旋旋, 等. 利用雷达和自动站资料综合分析风暴移动和发展规律[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(1): 134-146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.01.11
Xu Yaqin, Zhai Guoqing, Huang Xuanxuan, et al. A Study of the Evolution Regularity of Storm Based on the Data of Radar and Automatic Station[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(1): 134-146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.01.11
Citation: Xu Yaqin, Zhai Guoqing, Huang Xuanxuan, et al. A Study of the Evolution Regularity of Storm Based on the Data of Radar and Automatic Station[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(1): 134-146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.01.11

利用雷达和自动站资料综合分析风暴移动和发展规律

A Study of the Evolution Regularity of Storm Based on the Data of Radar and Automatic Station

  • 摘要: 为了研究地面中尺度辐合对对流回波发展趋势的影响, 本文利用多普勒雷达和经过质量控制的地面加密自动站资料, 选取浙江宁波地区较典型的10次强对流天气过程, 逐时统计地面辐合场、累计雨量、雷达回波之间的相互对应情况, 并进一步通过Shuman-Shapiro滤波来揭示地面中尺度风场辐合与风暴发展的内在联系, 最后基于所统计的回波发展和地面辐合的关系利用交叉相关法对风暴进行外推预报。结果表明: 雷达回波前沿的地面中尺度辐合区域对未来回波的发生、发展有着重要的作用, 特别是存在地面中尺度辐合线的区域更有利于对流单体的新生和发展, 同时对主回波未来的走向和形状也有较大的影响。通过Shuman-Shapiro滤波进行尺度分离后可以发现, 在风暴发展前沿和一些风暴团之间存在着明显的风场辐合作用, 它对未来风暴的发生发展起了重要的传递和媒介作用。最后, 基于地面辐合场用交叉相关法对风暴进行外推预报, 得到的外推回波场和实况回波场在形状、中心强度上都有较好的对应关系。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the effect of surface mesoscale convergence on the development of convective echoes, the authors analyze statistically the relationship of convergence field, rainfall, and radar echoes in the selected ten convective weather processes in Ningbo region by use of radar and surface automatic station data after quality control. And the role of surface mesoscale wind convergence in the storm development is revealed by use of the Shuman-Shapiro filter. At last, the storm is extrapolated with the cross-correlation method based on the statistics of relationship between the development of echoes and the surface convergence. The results indicate that: The surface mesoscale convergence in front of the radar echoes plays an important role in the echo occurrence and development, particularly the area where there exists surface mesoscale convergence line is more propitious to monomer newborn and development, at the same time it also has a great influence on the future direction and shape of the major echo. After scale separating by use of the Shuman-Shapiro filter it can be found in the front of and between the storms, the wind field interacts obviously with each other, as the transmission and media it plays an important role in the storm development. Finally, after extrapolating the storm based on the ground convergence field with the cross-correlation method, the shape and center of the echo have a very good correspondence between the extrapolation echoes filed and the fact echoes filed.

     

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