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刘丽, 曹杰, 何大明, 等. 中国低纬高原汛期强降水事件的年代际变化及其成因研究[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(3): 435-443. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.03.05
引用本文: 刘丽, 曹杰, 何大明, 等. 中国低纬高原汛期强降水事件的年代际变化及其成因研究[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(3): 435-443. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.03.05
Liu Li, Cao Jie, He Daming, et al. The Interdecadal Variability of Heavy Rainfall Events in Flood Season over Low-Latitude Highlands of China and Associated Causes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(3): 435-443. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.03.05
Citation: Liu Li, Cao Jie, He Daming, et al. The Interdecadal Variability of Heavy Rainfall Events in Flood Season over Low-Latitude Highlands of China and Associated Causes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(3): 435-443. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.03.05

中国低纬高原汛期强降水事件的年代际变化及其成因研究

The Interdecadal Variability of Heavy Rainfall Events in Flood Season over Low-Latitude Highlands of China and Associated Causes

  • 摘要: 利用位于低纬高原主体的云南省境内94个台站1961~2008年汛期 (5~10月) 的逐日降雨量资料, 以≥25 mm为标准, 研究了近50年来低纬高原汛期强降水事件的年代际变化规律及其成因。结果表明: 低纬高原区汛期强降水事件气候平均的空间分布与年总降水量的分布一致, 具有明显的年代际变化特征。其中, 20世纪60年代和20世纪末至21世纪初为强降水事件多发期, 20世纪70年代至90年代初期为强降水事件的稀发期。低纬高原区汛期强降水事件的年代际变化不仅体现在强降水发生的总次数上, 也体现在发生的密集度上。多发期强降水每年发生15~20站次和20站次以上的频率可达13.0%和4.4%, 而稀发期的则为0%。西太平洋和东印度洋暖池海温状况可能是造成低纬高原汛期强降水事件发生的重要原因。

     

    Abstract: This is a study to analyze the temporal-spatial differences of extreme precipitation events across the low-latitude highlands over the past 50 years, based on the daily precipitation data at 94 weather stations in the area during the flood seasons of 1961-2008. Meanwhile, the relationship between the interdecadal variation of heavy precipitation events and atmospheric circulations is examined in a preliminary manner using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric circulation data, the NOAA OLR data, and the National Climate Center (NCC) circulation indices data over the same period. Results indicate that the heavy precipitation events occurring in the flood season over the low-latitude highland areas are spatially distributed in a U shape, in the context of mean climate variation, with most heavy precipitation events appearing in the west, south, and east parts of the low-latitude highland areas. The heavy precipitation events occurring in the flood season over the areas exhibite a noticeable interdecadal variation, not only in the context of total occurrences, but also in the context of the density of occurrence. The 1960s and the period from the end of the 20th century to the early 21st century are the active periods of heavy precipitation events, and the period from the 1970s to the early 1990s is the less active period. At least one more heavy precipitation event occurs during the active periods than during the less active period. The annual frequencies that heavy precipitation events occur for 15-20 stations/times and over 20 stations/times are 13.0% and 4.4%, respectively, during the active periods, and 0% during the less active period. The condition of the western Pacific warm pool and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool plays a major role in the occurrences of heavy precipitation events in the flood season over the low-latitude highlands.

     

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