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热带大气季节内振荡对华南前汛期降水的影响

Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Pre-flood Season Precipitation in South China

  • 摘要: 本文基于实时的热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)指数和中国台站降水资料, 研究了MJO对中国华南前汛期 (4~6月) 降水的影响。结果表明, 随着MJO的活跃中心从印度洋进入西太平洋, 华南地区的降水由偏多转为偏少。最显著的降水正负异常分别位于第4位相和第7位相, 其区域平均的最大正负异常值相对于气候平均值的变化约为17%和11%。与降水异常相对应, 大尺度背景场, 如西北太平洋副热带高压、水汽和垂直速度也发生了季节内变化。当MJO的活跃中心位于印度洋(第4位相), 副高加强西伸, 华南地区的水汽增加, 上升运动亦加强, 降水偏多。当MJO的活跃中心位于西太平洋 (第7位相), 副高减弱东撤, 华南地区的水汽减少, 上升运动亦减弱, 降水偏少。

     

    Abstract: Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on pre-flood season precipitation in South China is investigated based on a real-time MJO index and observed daily rainfall from gauge stations. It is shown that the rainfall patterns change from enhanced to suppressed in South China at intraseasonal timescales as the MJO moves from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific. The most significant positive and negative anomalies are found in phase 4 and phase 7, respectively. The maximum positive and negative anomalies of regional mean rainfall are 17% and 11% relative to the climatological regional mean, respectively. Such different rainfall regimes are associated with the corresponding changes in large-scale background fields such as the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), moisture, and vertical motion. In phase 4, when the MJO is mainly over the Indian Ocean, the WPSH shifts farther westward, the moisture and upward motion in South China are increased, such environment is in favor of rainfall enhancement. In contrast, in phase 7, when the MJO enters the western Pacific, the WPSH retreats eastward, the moisture and upward motion in South China are decreased, such environment is in favor of rainfall suppression.

     

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