高级检索
冯蕾, 魏凤英, 朱艳峰. 基于前春对流层温度和北大西洋涛动的中国夏季降水统计预测模型[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(5): 963-976. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.05.15
引用本文: 冯蕾, 魏凤英, 朱艳峰. 基于前春对流层温度和北大西洋涛动的中国夏季降水统计预测模型[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(5): 963-976. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.05.15
FENG Lei, WEI Fengying, ZHU Yanfeng. A Predictive Model for Summer Precipitation over China Based on Upper Tropospheric Temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation in the Preceding Spring[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(5): 963-976. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.05.15
Citation: FENG Lei, WEI Fengying, ZHU Yanfeng. A Predictive Model for Summer Precipitation over China Based on Upper Tropospheric Temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation in the Preceding Spring[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(5): 963-976. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.05.15

基于前春对流层温度和北大西洋涛动的中国夏季降水统计预测模型

A Predictive Model for Summer Precipitation over China Based on Upper Tropospheric Temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation in the Preceding Spring

  • 摘要: 本文在分析中国夏季降水典型模态与前期春季对流层中上层温度主要分布类型、 北大西洋涛动 (简称NAO) 之间关系的基础上, 提出基于前春对流层温度和NAO的中国夏季降水统计预测模型, 并对利用该模型预报的2004~2009年中国160站夏季降水进行检验。结果表明: 中国大范围夏季降水多寡主要与5月NAO变化有关, “南多 (少) 北少 (多) 型”降水异常分布主要与5月NAO异常以及前春中国东北、 华北地区上空对流层温度的冷异常有关。NAO对中国夏季降水的影响既包括年际尺度的, 也包括年代际尺度的, 而对流层温度异常的影响主要体现在年代际尺度上。这两个因子通过影响夏季大气环流和季风水汽输送, 从而影响中国夏季降水的趋势分布。基于这样的联系, 本工作以中国夏季降水量原始场EOF分解前3个模态对应的时间系数为预测对象, 以前期春季平均的对流层中上层温度距平REOF分解前4个模态对应的时间系数以及逐月NAO指数序列作为预报因子, 并结合降水序列本身、 对流层温度、 NAO指数的多时间尺度分量建立了我国夏季降水的统计预测模型, 取得了较好的预报效果。2004~2009年预报降水与观测降水之间的6年平均距平相关系数达到0.335, 表明该预报方案对我国夏季降水具有较高的预报技巧。

     

    Abstract: Based on the analyses of relationship between summer precipitation and upper tropospheric temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the preceding spring, a statistic predictive model for summer precipitation over China is proposed and the forecast results for years 2004-2009 are tested. The results show that the large scale precipitation over China mainly changes with NAO in May, and the meridional dipole pattern of precipitation is associated with NAO in May and the anomalous cooling during 500 hPa-200 hPa in the preceding spring over North China and Northeast China. The NAO influences the summer precipitation over China on both interannual and interdecadal time scales, while the upper tropospheric temperature influences the precipitation mainly on interdecadal time scale. The anomalous condition of spring NAO and upper tropospheric temperature determines the pattern and magnitude of summer precipitation over China via large scale circulation and water vapor transport. A predictive model for summer precipitation over China is proposed based on both this statistic and physical relationship, with the first three principle components (PCs) of summer precipitation as the predictands, and with the first four PCs of upper tropospheric temperature over Asia (10°N-50°N, 60°E-130°E) and the monthly NAO index in the preceding spring as the predictors. The periods of these series with different time scales are also considered to remove the noise and extract useful information. The averaged anomaly correlation coefficient for years 2004-2009 is 0.335, indicting a good skill in forecasting the summer precipitation over China.

     

/

返回文章
返回