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田芝平, 姜大膀, 张冉, 隋月. CCSM4.0的长期积分试验及其对东亚和中国气候模拟的评估[J]. 大气科学, 2012, 36(3): 619-632. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11092
引用本文: 田芝平, 姜大膀, 张冉, 隋月. CCSM4.0的长期积分试验及其对东亚和中国气候模拟的评估[J]. 大气科学, 2012, 36(3): 619-632. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11092
TIAN Zhiping, JIANG Dabang, ZHANG Ran, SUI Yue. Long-Term Climate Simulation of CCSM4.0 and Evaluation of Its Performance over East Asia and China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 36(3): 619-632. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11092
Citation: TIAN Zhiping, JIANG Dabang, ZHANG Ran, SUI Yue. Long-Term Climate Simulation of CCSM4.0 and Evaluation of Its Performance over East Asia and China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 36(3): 619-632. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11092

CCSM4.0的长期积分试验及其对东亚和中国气候模拟的评估

Long-Term Climate Simulation of CCSM4.0 and Evaluation of Its Performance over East Asia and China

  • 摘要: 本文利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的低分辨率 (T31, 约3.75° × 3.75°) 版本进行了700年的长期积分试验, 将中国地表气温、降水及东亚海平面气压、500 hPa和100 hPa位势高度、850 hPa风场的最后100年模拟结果与观测和再分析资料进行了定性比较, 并对前三个要素的不同统计量值进行了定量计算, 系统评估了CCSM4.0对东亚及我国气候的模拟能力。结果表明, 模式能够合理模拟各变量的基本分布形态, 但幅度与观测有所差别, 其中地表气温的模拟效果最好, 降水的相对最差。具体而言, 地表气温空间分布型与观测一致, 但全年青藏高原地表气温模拟值偏高, 位于塔里木盆地的暖中心未能模拟出来; 降水空间分布型模拟较差, 除冬季不明显之外, 我国中南部全年都存在一个虚假降水中心, 并在夏季达到最强; 冬季东亚地区海陆热力对比大于观测, 夏季海平面气压场整体模拟效果不如冬季; 模式对冬、夏季500 hPa东亚大槽和西北太平洋副热带高压的主要特征刻画较好, 但模拟结果整体比观测偏强; 夏季100 hPa南亚高压强度与观测接近, 但高压范围及中心位置存在偏差; 850 hPa东亚冬季风和夏季风环流模拟较好, 但冬季西北气流偏强, 夏季索马里越赤道气流偏弱、我国东部西南气流偏强。总的来说, CCSM4.0对东亚和我国大尺度气候特征具备合理的模拟能力, 尽管在定量上还存在着不足。

     

    Abstract: A 700-year long-term climate simulation is performed by the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4.0) with a low atmospheric horizontal resolution (T31, an equivalent grid spacing of about 3.75°). To systematically evaluate the capability of the model over East Asia and China, the last 100-year results of surface air temperature and precipitation in China, sea level pressure, geopotential height at 500 hPa and 100 hPa, and wind field at 850 hPa over East Asia are qualitatively compared to observation and reanalysis data, and a few statistical variables of the former three climatic elements are quantitatively examined. Results show that the model can reasonably reproduce the basic spatial patterns of the above climatic fields, though the magnitudes are somewhat different from observations. The best (worst) performance is found for surface air temperature (precipitation) as a whole. Specifically, the simulated geographical distribution of surface air temperature agrees with observations. However, it is overestimated on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and the warm center on the Tarim Basin is missed by the model throughout the year. The spatial distribution of precipitation is poorly simulated. A fake precipitation center, which is the strongest in summer, occurs over central southern China all year around except in winter. The simulation of sea level pressure is generally better in winter than in summer, though the simulated thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and adjacent oceans is larger than observations. The model can well capture the East Asia major trough and subtropical high over the western North Pacific at 500 hPa during winter and summer, though the values are larger than observations. The simulated intensity of the South Asia high at 100 hPa in summer is consistent with observations, whereas the extent and center location exhibit some deviations. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulations at 850 hPa are well simulated. However, the northwesterly flow is overestimated in winter. In summer, the Somalia cross-equatorial flow is underestimated, while the southwesterly flow over eastern China is overestimated. Collectively, CCSM4.0 has a reliable capability to simulate the large-scale climate features over East Asia and China, though some deficiencies still exist in a quantitative manner.

     

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