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钱卓蕾. 秋季南极涛动异常对冬季中国南方降水的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(1): 190-200. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13122
引用本文: 钱卓蕾. 秋季南极涛动异常对冬季中国南方降水的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(1): 190-200. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13122
QIAN Zhuolei. The Impact of Autumn Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on Winter Precipitation in Southern China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(1): 190-200. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13122
Citation: QIAN Zhuolei. The Impact of Autumn Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on Winter Precipitation in Southern China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(1): 190-200. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13122

秋季南极涛动异常对冬季中国南方降水的影响

The Impact of Autumn Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on Winter Precipitation in Southern China

  • 摘要: 本文针对秋季南极涛动(AAO)和冬季中国南方降水的关系作了研究,发现两者之间存在显著的反向年际变化关系。AAO正(负)异常年,副热带西风急流显著增强(减弱),欧洲西部槽、乌拉尔山高压脊和东亚沿岸大槽均偏强(偏弱),阿留申低压、南支槽和西太平洋副高偏弱(偏强),西南急流上的扰动不活跃(活跃),我国大部分地区出现异常偏北风(偏南风)和OLR弱正距平,导致南方降水偏少(偏多)。两半球存在东亚—南半球高纬地区和纵贯太平洋南北的两个遥相关型,海洋性大陆对流活动可能是秋季AAO影响南方冬季降水的一个机制。因此,秋季南极涛动的异常很可能对预测我国南方冬季降水有显著指示意义。

     

    Abstract: With station-based and reanalysis datasets, this research documents the negative correlation between the autumn Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and winter precipitation in southern China. In positive (negative) AAO anomaly years, the significantly stronger (weaker) subtropical westerly jet, western European trough, East Asia trough and Ural ridge, the weaker (stronger) the Aleutian low, southern trough and western Pacific subtropical high. The inactive (active) disturbance along the southwest jet and the abnormal northerly wind (southerly wind), which prevails in most regions of China with a weak positive anomaly OLR, all lead to the decreasing (increasing) southern China rainfall. Two meridional teleconnection patterns exist with one along East Asia-the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and the other over the whole Pacific from south to north. The convection over the region of the maritime continent may serve as a bridge linking the autumn AAO and winter precipitation in southern China. Therefore, the abnormal autumn AAO could possibly have significant denotative meaning on forecast of winter precipitation in southern China.

     

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