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黄荣辉, 刘永, 皇甫静亮, 冯涛. 20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化特征及其内动力成因[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(4): 627-644. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13245
引用本文: 黄荣辉, 刘永, 皇甫静亮, 冯涛. 20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化特征及其内动力成因[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(4): 627-644. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13245
HUANG Ronghui, LIU Yong, HUANGFU Jingliang, FENG Tao. Characteristics and Internal Dynamical Causes of the Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon near the Late 1990s[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(4): 627-644. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13245
Citation: HUANG Ronghui, LIU Yong, HUANGFU Jingliang, FENG Tao. Characteristics and Internal Dynamical Causes of the Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon near the Late 1990s[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(4): 627-644. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13245

20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化特征及其内动力成因

Characteristics and Internal Dynamical Causes of the Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon near the Late 1990s

  • 摘要: 为纪念陶诗言先生对东亚冬季风研究的杰出贡献,本文利用我国测站、NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40/ERA-Interim再分析资料分析了我国冬季气温和东亚冬季风在20世纪90年代末所发生的年代际跃变特征及其内动力成因。分析结果表明:从20世纪90年代末之后,我国冬季气温和东亚冬季风发生了明显的年代际跃变。从1999年之后,随着东亚冬季风从偏弱变偏强,我国冬季气温变化从全国一致变化型变成南北振荡型(即北冷南暖型),并由于从1999年之后我国北方冬季气温从偏高变成偏低,故冬季低温雪暴冰冻灾害频繁发生,同时,我国冬季气温和东亚冬季风年际变化在此时期从以往3~4 a周期年际变化变成2~8 a周期;并且,结果还表明了东亚冬季风此次年代际变化是由于西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压的加强所致。本文还从北极涛动(AO)和北半球准定常行星波活动的动力理论进一步讨论了此次东亚冬季风年代际跃变的内动力成因及其机理,结果表明:从20世纪90年代末之后,北半球冬季准定常行星波在高纬地区沿极地波导传播到平流层加强,而沿低纬波导传播到副热带对流层上层减弱,这造成了行星波E-P通量在高纬度地区对流层和平流层辐合加强,而在副热带地区对流层中、上层辐散加强,因而导致了北半球高纬度地区从对流层到平流层纬向平均纬向流和欧亚上空极锋急流减弱,而副热带急流加强,这造成了AO减弱和东亚冬季风加强。

     

    Abstract: In memory of the excellent contributions made by academician Tao Shiyan to the study on East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), the characteristics and internal dynamical causes of winter surface air temperature in China and the EAWM occurring near the late 1990s are analyzed in this paper by using observational data in China and reanalysis data of the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40/ERA-Interim. The analyzed results show a significant jump of interdecadal variability of winter surface-air temperature in China and the EAWM occurrence in the late 1990s. With the strengthening of the EAWM, this variability of winter surface air-temperature in China has undergone a change from a "similar pattern in the whole China" to a "south-north oscillation pattern" (i.e., cold in the north but warm in the south) since 1999. Because the winter surface-air temperature in northern China shifted into a colder state during 1999-2012, wintertime disasters of low temperature, snowstorms, and blizzards have frequently occurred in this region. In addition, the dominant period of the interannual variability of winter surface-air temperature and the EAWM turned into 2-8 years from previous 3-4 years. Moreover, the results show that this interdecadal jump of the EAWM is attributed to the strengthening of the Siberian high and the Aleutian low. The internal dynamical causes and physical mechanism of this interdecadal variability of the EAWM are discussed further from the dynamical theories of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. Since the late 1990s, the propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves into the stratosphere over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere along the polar wave-guide was enhanced, while the propagation into the upper troposphere over the subtropics along the low-latitude wave-guide weakened, which caused the strengthening of the convergence of Eliassen-Palm (E-P) fluxes of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the troposphere and stratosphere over high latitudes and strengthening of the divergence of E-P fluxes in the middle and upper troposphere over the subtropics of the Northern Hemisphere. This led to the weakening of wintertime zonal-mean zonal flow from the troposphere to the stratosphere over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the polar front jet and strengthening of the wintertime subtropical jet during 1999-2012, which caused the weakening of the wintertime AO and strengthening of the EAWM.

     

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