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薛媛, 杨庆, 马柱国, 等. 2024. 1961~2020年中国区域不同等级降水的变化趋势及其可能成因[J]. 大气科学, 48(2): 619−644. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.22033
引用本文: 薛媛, 杨庆, 马柱国, 等. 2024. 1961~2020年中国区域不同等级降水的变化趋势及其可能成因[J]. 大气科学, 48(2): 619−644. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.22033
XUE Yuan, YANG Qing, MA Zhuguo, et al. 2024. Trends and Possible Causes of Different Levels of Precipitation Variations in China during 1961–2020 [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(2): 619−644. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.22033
Citation: XUE Yuan, YANG Qing, MA Zhuguo, et al. 2024. Trends and Possible Causes of Different Levels of Precipitation Variations in China during 1961–2020 [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(2): 619−644. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.22033

1961~2020年中国区域不同等级降水的变化趋势及其可能成因

Trends and Possible Causes of Different Levels of Precipitation Variations in China during 1961–2020

  • 摘要: 已有的研究表明,增暖背景下全球降水的格局发生了变化,弱降水总体呈减小趋势,而强降水在一些区域呈明显的增加趋势。但在区域尺度上不同等级强度降水的变化还缺乏系统的研究。本文基于中国838个气象站点的降水资料,研究了1961~2020年来中国弱降水、中等强度降水和极端降水长期变化趋势及其年代际分量与年代际海温振荡型的关联性。结果表明:中国不同等级降水变化的空间分布差异较大。弱降水仅在西北西部和青藏高原地区以增加为主,在华南和西南地区以显著减少为主;中等强度降水在西南地区东部以显著减少为主,在其余地区以增长为主;强降水在大部分地区呈现增长趋势,仅在京津冀和重庆部分地区呈现减少趋势。中国大部分地区的弱降水量(日数)对总降水的贡献率以减少为主,中等强度降水日数、强降水量(日数)的贡献率以显著增长为主,各区域强降水贡献率与中等强度降水和弱降水贡献率呈相反的年代际变化。其中,弱降水日数和中等强度降水日数的变化主导了总降水日数的变化,中等强度降水量和强降水量的变化主导了总降水量的变化。进一步研究发现,在年代际尺度上,中国大部分地区的不同等级降水与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的相关系数随等级增大而趋于负值,与大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)的相关系数则随等级增大而趋于正值。各区域不同等级降水与PDO/AMO相关关系的年代际突变主要发生在1980年代至1990年代。

     

    Abstract: Studies have shown that global warming has changed global precipitation patterns, with a general trend of light precipitation and a significantly increasing trend of intense precipitation in some regions. However, more systematic studies are required to examine precipitation variation at different levels, especially on the regional scale. Based on precipitation data from 838 meteorological stations in China, this report investigated the trends of light, moderate-intensity and extreme precipitation in China from 1961 to 2020 and the relationship between their interdecadal component and ocean oscillation factors. The result shows that China’s spatial distribution of precipitation variability varies considerably. Light precipitation predominantly increases in western northwest China and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, whereas it decreases substantially in southern China and southwest China. Precipitation of moderate intensity decreases considerably in the eastern part of southwest China and increases in the rest of China. Extreme precipitation increases in most regions, with decreasing trends only in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and parts of Chongqing. In most regions of China, light precipitation (light rainy days) contributes less to total precipitation than moderate-intensity and extreme precipitation. The contribution of extreme precipitation in each region exhibits an opposite interdecadal variation to the contribution of moderate-intensity precipitation and light precipitation. The changes in the number of light rainy days and moderate-intensity rainy days dominate the changes in total rainy days. Variations in moderate-intensity precipitation and extreme-intensity precipitation dominate variations in total precipitation. Furthermore, on the interdecadal scale, the correlation coefficients between precipitation at different levels and Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO) in most of China tend to be negative with increasing levels, while those with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) tend to be positive with increasing levels. During the 1980s and 1990s, the correlation between precipitation at various levels and PDO/AMO in each region underwent abrupt interdecadal changes.

     

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